36'
(ast. João Gomes)
Johan Manzambi
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Newcastle a 40% win probability (draw 28%, Aston Villa 31%). The final result was Newcastle 0–1 Aston Villa. In 3 previous meetings, Newcastle have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Aston Villa.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
15
1
Shots on target
3
1.14
Actual xG
1.56
2
Saves
1
49%
Possession
51%
4
Corners
5
13
Tackles
24
6
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
Joelinton
18'
Sven Botman
18'
25'
João Gomes
28'
Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
36'
ast. João Gomes ·
Johan Manzambi⚽
45'
John McGinn
/
Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
Nico González
53'
Yoane Wissa
55'
Matias Fernandez-Pardo
/ Bazoumana Touré
56'
Joe Willock
/ William Osula
56'
72'
Leon Goretzka
/
Emiliano Buendía
72'
Ross Barkley
/
João Gomes
72'
Ibrahim Mbaye
/
Johan Manzambi
77'
Pau Torres
/
Aaron Wan-Bissaka
William Osula
78'
Malick Thiaw
86'
Joelinton
/ Dan Burn
90'
Pre-match prediction
40.43%
Newcastle
28.45%
X
31.12%
Aston ←
we assigned to the actual result (Aston Villa)
31.12%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.89
1.14
-0.75
1.33
1.56
+0.23
Aston Villa dominated by xG (1.56 vs 1.14).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
21
L. Horníček
G
L. Horníček
G
3
L. Hall
D
L. Hall
D
4
S. Botman
D
S. Botman
D
12
M. Thiaw
D
M. Thiaw
D
67
L. Miley
D
L. Miley
D
7
Joelinton
89'
M
Joelinton
89'
M
6
Nico González
M
Nico González
M
11
H. Barnes
M
H. Barnes
M
28
J. Willock
56'
M
J. Willock
56'
M
20
M. Fernandez-Pardo
56'
M
M. Fernandez-Pardo
56'
M
9
Y. Wissa
F
Y. Wissa
F
Bench
8
A. Bamba
M
A. Bamba
M
37
A. Dedić
D
A. Dedić
D
17
B. Touré
34'
F
B. Touré
34'
F
33
D. Burn
1'
D
D. Burn
1'
D
5
F. Schär
D
F. Schär
D
23
J. Murphy
M
J. Murphy
M
1
N. Pope
G
N. Pope
G
14
Sean Steur
M
Sean Steur
M
10
W. Osula
34'
F
W. Osula
34'
F
1
Z. Suzuki
G
Z. Suzuki
G
29
A. Wan-Bissaka
77'
D
A. Wan-Bissaka
77'
D
5
T. Mings
D
T. Mings
D
3
V. Lindelöf
D
V. Lindelöf
D
2
M. Cash
D
M. Cash
D
35
João Gomes
1 👟
72'
M
João Gomes
1 👟
72'
M
8
B. Kamara
M
B. Kamara
M
10
E. Buendía
72'
M
E. Buendía
72'
M
44
J. Manzambi
1 ⚽
72'
M
J. Manzambi
1 ⚽
72'
M
47
Alysson Edward
45'
M
Alysson Edward
45'
M
11
N. Jackson
F
N. Jackson
F
Bench
39
Brian Madjo
F
Brian Madjo
F
19
I. Mbaye
18'
F
I. Mbaye
18'
F
7
J. McGinn
45'
M
J. McGinn
45'
M
26
L. Bogarde
M
L. Bogarde
M
27
L. Goretzka
18'
M
L. Goretzka
18'
M
40
M. Bizot
G
M. Bizot
G
14
Pau Torres
13'
D
Pau Torres
13'
D
6
R. Barkley
18'
M
R. Barkley
18'
M
4
T. Harwood-Bellis
D
T. Harwood-Bellis
D
Best on the pitch
J. Manzambi
M · Aston
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 24 pass
João Gomes
M · Aston
7.70
1 👟
· 32 pass
Alysson Edward
M · Aston
7.41
· 13 pass
M. Cash
D · Aston
7.27
2 shots
· 38 pass
A. Wan-Bissaka
D · Aston
7.21
· 27 pass
R. Barkley
M · Aston
7.20
1 shots
· 13 pass
Newcastle — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Horníček | G | 90 | 6.52 | — | — | 0 | 21 | 18% | 0 | — | — |
| L. Hall | D | 90 | 6.66 | — | — | 0 | 40 | 29% | 3 | — | — |
| S. Botman | D | 90 | 6.47 | — | — | 2 | 59 | 45% | 0 | 1 | — |
| M. Thiaw | D | 90 | 6.57 | — | — | 0 | 62 | 56% | 0 | 1 | — |
| L. Miley | D | 90 | 6.35 | — | — | 0 | 39 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| Joelinton | M | 89 | 6.38 | — | — | 0 | 35 | 33% | 0 | 1 | — |
| Nico González | M | 90 | 6.96 | — | — | 2 | 67 | 57% | 3 | 1 | — |
| H. Barnes | M | 90 | 6.64 | — | — | 3 | 20 | 18% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Willock | M | 56 | 6.86 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Fernandez-Pardo | M | 56 | 5.90 | — | — | 0 | 9 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Y. Wissa | F | 90 | 6.12 | — | — | 7 | 14 | 10% | 1 | 1 | — |
| B. Touré | F | 34 | 6.32 | — | — | 0 | 11 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Burn | D | 1 | 0.00 | — | — | 0 | 3 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| W. Osula | F | 34 | 6.23 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | 0 | 1 | — |
Aston Villa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Suzuki | G | 90 | 6.57 | — | — | 0 | 49 | 30% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Wan-Bissaka | D | 77 | 7.21 | — | — | 0 | 27 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Mings | D | 90 | 7.12 | — | — | 0 | 40 | 34% | 0 | — | — |
| V. Lindelöf | D | 90 | 6.83 | — | — | 0 | 57 | 48% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Cash | D | 90 | 7.27 | — | — | 2 | 38 | 31% | 3 | — | — |
| João Gomes | M | 72 | 7.70 | — | 1 | 0 | 32 | 28% | 2 | 1 | — |
| B. Kamara | M | 90 | 6.65 | — | — | 0 | 42 | 36% | 5 | — | — |
| E. Buendía | M | 72 | 6.61 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 30% | 6 | — | — |
| J. Manzambi | M | 72 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 24 | 18% | 0 | — | — |
| Alysson Edward | M | 45 | 7.41 | — | — | 0 | 13 | 12% | 2 | 1 | — |
| N. Jackson | F | 90 | 6.51 | — | — | 4 | 21 | 15% | 0 | — | — |
| I. Mbaye | F | 18 | 6.88 | — | — | 3 | 10 | 9% | 0 | — | — |
| J. McGinn | M | 45 | 6.91 | — | — | 0 | 17 | 12% | 4 | — | — |
| L. Goretzka | M | 18 | 6.95 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Pau Torres | D | 13 | 7.00 | — | — | 0 | 8 | 7% | 0 | — | — |
| R. Barkley | M | 18 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 9% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
The final score was Newcastle 0–1 Aston Villa.
What did the model predict before Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
The model assigned 40% probability to a Newcastle win, 28% to a draw, and 31% to an Aston Villa win.