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Newcastle - West Brom

EFL Cup August 25, 2026 16:00
Newcastle
vs
West Brom
⚡ Pre-match analysis
27.95%
Win
Newcastle
26.76%
Draw
45.29%
Win
West Brom
1.21
Expected xG
3.04

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (9.73%)
1X2 Result
1 28%
X 27%
2 45%
Double Chance
1X 55%
X2 72%
12 73%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 61%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives West Brom a 45% win probability, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Newcastle. Expected goals are 1.2 for Newcastle and 3.0 for West Brom (total 4.2), with a 80% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 9.73% probability.

Season Stats

Newcastle
3W 0D 2L
West Brom
1W 1D 0L
Averages per game
1.8
Goals
2.5
1.4
Conceded
1.0
5.6
Shots OT
8.0
5.4
Corners
5.0
53%
Poss.
63%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
100%
60%
O 2.5
50%
60%
BTTS
100%
20%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 5 matches in EFL Cup. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
63%
O 3.5
75%
BTTS
Newcastle
3W 0D 1L · at home
West Brom
1W 0D 0L · away
2.0
gls/g
4.0
1.0
Conceded
1.0
75%
Win %
100%
75%
Win or Draw
100%
100%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
100%
25%
O 3.5
100%
50%
BTTS
100%
25%
Clean Sht
0%
25%
Failed to Score
0%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Newcastle West Brom →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.4% 4.3% 6.6% 6.7% 5.1% 3.1%
1 1.7% 5.2% 8.0% 8.1% 6.2% 3.7%
2 1.0% 3.2% 4.8% 4.9% 3.7% 2.3%
3 0.4% 1.3% 1.9% 2.0% 1.5% 0.9%
4 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%
5 — 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Recent form

Newcastle Newcastle
L Manchester City 3–1
L Manchester City 0–2
W Fulham 2–1
W Tottenham 2–0
W Bradford 4–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 26%
West Brom West Brom
W Rotherham 1–4
D Derby 1–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 33%

Playing profile

Newcastle Newcastle
Attack
39
Defence
54
Form
55
West Brom West Brom
Attack
75
Defence
82
Form
80
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Newcastle vs West Brom?
The model gives Newcastle a 27% win probability, 26% for a draw, and 45% for an West Brom win.
How many goals are expected in Newcastle vs West Brom?
Expected goals: Newcastle 1.2, West Brom 3.0 (total 4.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 80%.
What is the most likely score in Newcastle vs West Brom?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.73%.