Newport City - Carmarthen Town
FAW Championship
August 08, 2026 15:30
⚡ Pre-match analysis
32.21%
Win
Newport City
31.84%
Draw
35.95%
Win
Carmarthen Town
1.97
4.5
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–2
(8.32%)
1X2 Result
1
32%
X
32%
2
36%
Double Chance
1X
64%
X2
68%
12
68%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
53%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Carmarthen Town a 35% win probability, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Newport City. Expected goals are 2.0 for Newport City and 4.5 for Carmarthen Town (total 6.5), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–2 at 8.32% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Newport City have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Carmarthen Town.
Season Stats
4W
3D
8L
6W
5D
4L
Averages per game
1.2
Goals
2.2
2.1
Conceded
1.9
Percentages
73%
O 1.5
73%
60%
O 2.5
53%
47%
BTTS
60%
13%
Clean Sht
20%
ℹ
Based on the last 15 matches in FAW Championship. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
50%
O 3.5
65%
BTTS
2W
4D
4L
· at home
5W
2D
3L
· away
1.4
gls/g
2.6
2.0
Conceded
2.3
20%
Win %
50%
60%
Win or Draw
70%
80%
O 1.5
90%
70%
O 2.5
70%
40%
O 3.5
60%
70%
BTTS
60%
10%
Clean Sht
20%
30%
Failed to Score
20%
last 10
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Newport City
Carmarthen Town →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.4% |
| 1 | 0.3% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% |
| 2 | 0.3% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% |
| 5 | — | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
Recent form
Playing profile
Newport City
Attack
35
Defence
44
Form
40
Carmarthen Town
Attack
66
Defence
42
Form
58
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
South
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Aberystwyth Town
|
1 | 3 |
| 2 |
Newport City
|
1 | 3 |
| 3 |
Swansea University
|
1 | 3 |
| 4 |
Pontardawe Town
|
1 | 3 |
| 5 |
Carmarthen Town
|
1 | 3 |
| 6 |
Pontypridd Town
|
1 | 3 |
| 7 |
Ynyshir Albions
|
1 | 3 |
| 8 |
Trethomas Bluebirds
|
1 | 1 |
| 9 |
Baglan Dragons
|
1 | 1 |
| 10 |
Caerau (Ely)
|
1 | 0 |
| 11 |
Treowen Stars
|
1 | 0 |
| 12 |
Cardiff Draconians
|
1 | 0 |
| 13 |
Afan Lido
|
1 | 0 |
| 14 |
llanelli AFC
|
1 | 0 |
| 15 |
Llantwit Major
|
1 | 0 |
| 16 |
Caerphilly Athletic
|
1 | 0 |
What's at stake · South
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #2 | #5 |
| → Newport City | #1 | #5 |
| → Draw | #1 | #2 |
| → Carmarthen Town | #3 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Newport City vs Carmarthen Town?
The model gives Newport City a 32% win probability, 31% for a draw, and 35% for an Carmarthen Town win.
How many goals are expected in Newport City vs Carmarthen Town?
Expected goals: Newport City 2.0, Carmarthen Town 4.5 (total 6.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Newport City vs Carmarthen Town?
1–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.32%.