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Newport City - Trethomas Bluebirds

FAW Championship September 16, 2026 20:30
Newport City
#13 · 6 pts
vs
Trethomas Bluebirds
#9 · 9 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
37.5%
Win
Newport City
29.11%
Draw
33.39%
Win
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.73
Expected xG
1.57

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (9.1%)
1X2 Result
1 38%
X 29%
2 33%
Double Chance
1X 67%
X2 63%
12 71%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 58%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Newport City a 37% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Trethomas Bluebirds. Expected goals are 1.7 for Newport City and 1.6 for Trethomas Bluebirds (total 3.3), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 9.1% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Newport City have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Trethomas Bluebirds.

Season Stats

Newport City
5W 1D 9L
Trethomas Bluebirds
4W 6D 5L
Averages per game
1.3
Goals
2.1
1.9
Conceded
2.3
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
87%
67%
O 2.5
73%
40%
BTTS
80%
20%
Clean Sht
13%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in FAW Championship. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
35%
O 3.5
65%
BTTS
Newport City
1W 2D 7L · at home
Trethomas Bluebirds
1W 4D 5L · away
1.1
gls/g
1.1
2.1
Conceded
1.9
10%
Win %
10%
30%
Win or Draw
50%
70%
O 1.5
80%
60%
O 2.5
60%
30%
O 3.5
40%
60%
BTTS
70%
0%
Clean Sht
10%
40%
Failed to Score
30%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Newport City Trethomas Bluebirds →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.7% 5.8% 4.5% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3%
1 6.4% 10.0% 7.9% 4.1% 1.6% 0.5%
2 5.5% 8.7% 6.8% 3.6% 1.4% 0.4%
3 3.2% 5.0% 3.9% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%
4 1.4% 2.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% —

Recent form

Newport City Newport City
L Ynyshir Albions 0–1
L Baglan Dragons 0–1
W Pontardawe Town 0–4
L Carmarthen Town 1–2
W llanelli AFC 1–4
Home clean sheet (120 days) 16%
Trethomas Bluebirds Trethomas Bluebirds
D Caerphilly Athletic 2–2
W Carmarthen Town 2–3
W Afan Lido 5–2
L Pontypridd Town 2–1
L Caerau (Ely) 2–4
Away clean sheet (120 days) 16%

Playing profile

Newport City Newport City
Attack
36
Defence
66
Form
52
Trethomas Bluebirds Trethomas Bluebirds
Attack
47
Defence
54
Form
49
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Newport City
1
Draw
1
Trethomas Bluebirds
9 Mar 2026 FAW Championship 0–1
10 Oct 2025 FAW Championship 1–1

South

# Team G Pts
1 Swansea University Swansea University 6 16
2 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 6 15
3 Treowen Stars Treowen Stars 7 13
4 Pontypridd Town Pontypridd Town 6 13
5 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 8 13
6 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 7 11
7 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 7 10
8 Afan Lido Afan Lido 8 10
9 Trethomas Bluebirds Trethomas Bluebirds 7 9
10 Ynyshir Albions Ynyshir Albions 6 9
11 Caerphilly Athletic Caerphilly Athletic 7 8
12 Cardiff Draconians Cardiff Draconians 5 7
13 Newport City Newport City 5 6
14 Pontardawe Town Pontardawe Town 6 3
15 llanelli AFC llanelli AFC 8 2
16 Llantwit Major Llantwit Major 5 1

What's at stake · South

Top 2 advance to the next round

Newport City Trethomas Bluebirds
Current #13 #9
→ Newport City #9 #10
→ Draw #12 #7
→ Trethomas Bluebirds #13 #6

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Newport City vs Trethomas Bluebirds?
The model gives Newport City a 37% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 33% for an Trethomas Bluebirds win.
How many goals are expected in Newport City vs Trethomas Bluebirds?
Expected goals: Newport City 1.7, Trethomas Bluebirds 1.6 (total 3.3). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in Newport City vs Trethomas Bluebirds?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.1%.