Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
· Group Stage - 1
September 25, 2026 18:00
George Ilenikhena
(ast. Alex Iwobi)
45'+1
Moses Usor
(ast. Semi Ajayi)
65'
16'
(ast. Ryan Ponti)
Ehsan Kari
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Nigeria a 52% win probability (draw 24%, Madagascar 22%). The final result was Nigeria 2–1 Madagascar.
Match statistics
22
Total shots
4
4
Shots on target
1
0
Saves
2
55%
Possession
45%
5
Corners
2
17
Tackles
18
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
16'
ast. Ryan Ponti ·
Ehsan Kari⚽
36'
Geordan Dupire
⚽George Ilenikhena
· ast. Alex Iwobi
45'+1
Ademola Lookman
57'
Akor Adams
/ Moses Simon
61'
Samuel Chukwueze
/ Moses Usor
61'
⚽Moses Usor
· ast. Semi Ajayi
65'
67'
Warren Caddy
/
El Hadari Raheriniaina
George Ilenikhena
/ Taiwo Awoniyi
69'
Ademola Lookman
/ Tolu Arokodare
69'
70'
Rijaniaina Nicolas Randriamanampisoa
/
C. Couturier
70'
Nicolas Paul Julien Fontaine
/
Ryan Ponti
84'
Loic Lapoussin
/
Marco Ilaimaharitra
84'
Roman Ferber
/
Hakim Abdallah
Ola Aina
/ Bright Osayi-Samuel
87'
90'+3
Nicolas Paul Julien Fontaine
Pre-match prediction
52.15%
Nigeria ←
24.98%
X
22.87%
Madagascar
we assigned to the actual result (Nigeria)
52.15%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.91
—
—
1.46
—
—
Lineups
23
S. Nwabali
G
S. Nwabali
G
3
S. Onyemaechi
D
S. Onyemaechi
D
21
C. Bassey
D
C. Bassey
D
6
S. Ajayi
1 👟
D
S. Ajayi
1 👟
D
2
O. Aina
87'
D
O. Aina
87'
D
7
A. Lookman
69'
M
A. Lookman
69'
M
17
A. Iwobi
1 👟
M
A. Iwobi
1 👟
M
4
W. Ndidi
M
W. Ndidi
M
11
S. Chukwueze
61'
M
S. Chukwueze
61'
M
22
A. Adams
61'
F
A. Adams
61'
F
9
G. Ilenikhena
1 ⚽
69'
F
G. Ilenikhena
1 ⚽
69'
F
Bench
16
A. Okonkwo
G
A. Okonkwo
G
12
B. Osayi-Samuel
3'
D
B. Osayi-Samuel
3'
D
13
C. Nwaiwu
D
C. Nwaiwu
D
18
E. Fernandez
D
E. Fernandez
D
8
F. Onyeka
M
F. Onyeka
M
14
I. James
D
I. James
D
1
M. Okoye
G
M. Okoye
G
15
M. Simon
29'
F
M. Simon
29'
F
24
M. Usor
1 ⚽
29'
F
M. Usor
1 ⚽
29'
F
20
R. Onyedika
M
R. Onyedika
M
10
T. Arokodare
21'
F
T. Arokodare
21'
F
19
T. Awoniyi
21'
F
T. Awoniyi
21'
F
1
G. Dupire
G
G. Dupire
G
3
M. Jean-Pierre
D
M. Jean-Pierre
D
5
S. Trémoulet
D
S. Trémoulet
D
15
E. Kari
1 ⚽
D
E. Kari
1 ⚽
D
22
M. Acapandié
D
M. Acapandié
D
6
Marco Ilaimaharitra
84'
M
Marco Ilaimaharitra
84'
M
14
C. Couturier
70'
M
C. Couturier
70'
M
10
El Hadari
67'
M
El Hadari
67'
M
7
Rayan Raveloson
M
Rayan Raveloson
M
11
R. Ponti
1 👟
70'
M
R. Ponti
1 👟
70'
M
19
H. Abdallah
84'
F
H. Abdallah
84'
F
Bench
20
A. Randrianantenaina
F
A. Randrianantenaina
F
17
L. Lapoussin
6'
F
L. Lapoussin
6'
F
13
N. Fontaine
20'
F
18
R. Ferber
6'
F
R. Ferber
6'
F
9
W. Caddy
23'
F
W. Caddy
23'
F
Best on the pitch
A. Iwobi
M · Nigeria
7.70
1 👟
1 shots
· 62 pass
M. Usor
F · Nigeria
7.69
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 9 pass
G. Ilenikhena
F · Nigeria
7.63
1 ⚽
5 shots
· 7 pass
E. Kari
D · Madagascar
7.54
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 52 pass
C. Bassey
D · Nigeria
7.29
1 shots
· 89 pass
S. Onyemaechi
D · Nigeria
7.09
1 shots
· 37 pass
Nigeria — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Nwabali | G | 90 | 6.27 | — | — | 0 | 13 | 11% | 0 | — | — |
| S. Onyemaechi | D | 90 | 7.09 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 32% | 3 | — | — |
| C. Bassey | D | 90 | 7.29 | — | — | 1 | 89 | 84% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Ajayi | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 0 | 53 | 49% | 0 | — | — |
| O. Aina | D | 87 | 6.38 | — | — | 0 | 45 | 37% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Lookman | M | 69 | 6.64 | — | — | 2 | 32 | 31% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Iwobi | M | 90 | 7.70 | — | 1 | 1 | 62 | 55% | 2 | — | — |
| W. Ndidi | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 3 | 63 | 58% | 5 | — | — |
| S. Chukwueze | M | 61 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Adams | F | 61 | 6.25 | — | — | 4 | 8 | 6% | 0 | — | — |
| G. Ilenikhena | F | 69 | 7.63 | 1 | — | 5 | 7 | 6% | 0 | — | — |
| B. Osayi-Samuel | D | 3 | 6.30 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Simon | F | 29 | 6.73 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Usor | F | 29 | 7.69 | 1 | — | 2 | 9 | 5% | 0 | — | — |
| T. Arokodare | F | 21 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0 | — | — |
| T. Awoniyi | F | 21 | 6.53 | — | — | 0 | 7 | 5% | 0 | — | — |
Madagascar — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Dupire | G | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | 0 | 35 | 25% | 0 | 1 | — |
| M. Jean-Pierre | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 0 | 38 | 35% | 3 | — | — |
| S. Trémoulet | D | 90 | 6.38 | — | — | 0 | 33 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Kari | D | 90 | 7.54 | 1 | — | 1 | 52 | 47% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Acapandié | D | 90 | 6.89 | — | — | 0 | 46 | 40% | 4 | — | — |
| Marco Ilaimaharitra | M | 84 | 6.36 | — | — | 0 | 47 | 40% | 3 | — | — |
| C. Couturier | M | 70 | 5.51 | — | — | 0 | 29 | 19% | 0 | — | — |
| El Hadari | M | 67 | 6.17 | — | — | 0 | 17 | 14% | 3 | — | — |
| Rayan Raveloson | M | 90 | 6.54 | — | — | 2 | 32 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Ponti | M | 70 | 6.51 | — | 1 | 0 | 23 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Abdallah | F | 84 | 5.96 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 11% | 0 | — | — |
| L. Lapoussin | F | 6 | 6.28 | — | — | 0 | 9 | 7% | 0 | — | — |
| N. Fontaine | F | 20 | 6.10 | — | — | 0 | 3 | 3% | 1 | 1 | — |
| R. Ferber | F | 6 | 6.33 | — | — | 0 | 4 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| W. Caddy | F | 23 | 6.17 | — | — | 0 | 5 | 5% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Nigeria vs Madagascar?
The final score was Nigeria 2–1 Madagascar.
What did the model predict before Nigeria vs Madagascar?
The model assigned 52% probability to a Nigeria win, 24% to a draw, and 22% to an Madagascar win.