Nigeria - Madagascar
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
September 25, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
45.42%
Win
Nigeria
27.98%
Draw
26.6%
Win
Madagascar
2.51
1.17
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(11.06%)
1X2 Result
1
45%
X
28%
2
27%
Double Chance
1X
73%
X2
55%
12
72%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
53%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Nigeria a 45% win probability, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Madagascar. Expected goals are 2.5 for Nigeria and 1.2 for Madagascar (total 3.7), with a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 11.06% probability.
Score Matrix
↕ Nigeria
Madagascar →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | — |
| 1 | 6.3% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 7.9% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 6.7% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 4.2% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | — |
Playing profile
Nigeria
Attack
43
Defence
72
Form
61
Madagascar
Attack
38
Defence
38
Form
45
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Nigeria vs Madagascar?
The model gives Nigeria a 45% win probability, 27% for a draw, and 26% for an Madagascar win.
How many goals are expected in Nigeria vs Madagascar?
Expected goals: Nigeria 2.5, Madagascar 1.2 (total 3.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 76%.
What is the most likely score in Nigeria vs Madagascar?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 11.06%.