Nigeria - Tanzania
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
November 11, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
58.2%
Win
Nigeria
24.29%
Draw
17.51%
Win
Tanzania
1.55
0.7
Expected xG
Most likely outcome
Nigeria
58.2%
Probability
60.0%
1X2 accuracy · 5 predictions (3 months)
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(16.96%)
1X2 Result
1
58%
X
24%
2
18%
Double Chance
1X
83%
X2
42%
12
76%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
85%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5
59%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Nigeria a 58% win probability, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Tanzania. Expected goals are 1.6 for Nigeria and 0.7 for Tanzania (total 2.2), with a 84% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 16.96% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Nigeria have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Tanzania.
Season Stats
1W
0D
1L
0W
1D
1L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
0.5
2.0
Conceded
1.5
4.5
Shots OT
3.5
5.0
Corners
1.5
55%
Poss.
51%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
100%
100%
O 2.5
0%
50%
BTTS
50%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ
Based on the last 2 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Score Matrix
↕ Nigeria
Tanzania →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — |
| 1 | 16.4% | 11.4% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | — |
| 2 | 12.7% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | — |
| 3 | 6.6% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — |
| 4 | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Nigeria
Attack
48
Defence
56
Form
39
Tanzania
Attack
28
Defence
69
Form
20
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
1
0
Draw
0
23 Dec 2025
2–1
Group L
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Guinea-Bissau
|
2 | 6 |
| 2 |
Nigeria
|
2 | 3 |
| 3 |
Tanzania
|
2 | 1 |
| 4 |
Madagascar
|
2 | 1 |
What's at stake · Group L
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #2 | #3 |
| → Nigeria | #2 | #4 |
| → Draw | #2 | #3 |
| → Tanzania | #3 | #2 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Nigeria vs Tanzania?
The model gives Nigeria a 58% win probability, 24% for a draw, and 17% for an Tanzania win.
How many goals are expected in Nigeria vs Tanzania?
Expected goals: Nigeria 1.6, Tanzania 0.7 (total 2.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 84%.
What is the most likely score in Nigeria vs Tanzania?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 16.96%.