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Northern Ireland - Georgia

UEFA Nations League October 05, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Northern Ireland
#4 · 0 pts
vs
Georgia
#1 · 6 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
34.86%
Win
Northern Ireland
23.3%
Draw
41.85%
Win
Georgia
1.47
Expected xG
1.72

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (10.42%)
1X2 Result
1 35%
X 23%
2 42%
Double Chance
1X 58%
X2 65%
12 77%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 80%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Georgia a 41% win probability, against 23% for a draw and 34% for Northern Ireland. Expected goals are 1.5 for Northern Ireland and 1.7 for Georgia (total 3.2), with a 90% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.42% probability.

Season Stats

Northern Ireland
3W 2D 1L
Georgia
4W 1D 3L
Averages per game
1.8
Goals
2.0
0.5
Conceded
0.9
4.7
Shots OT
4.8
6.7
Corners
5.5
50%
Poss.
58%
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
63%
33%
O 2.5
50%
17%
BTTS
50%
67%
Clean Sht
25%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
17%
O 3.5
13%
BTTS
Northern Ireland
3W 0D 0L · at home
Georgia
2W 0D 2L · away
3.0
gls/g
1.2
0.0
Conceded
0.8
100%
Win %
50%
100%
Win or Draw
50%
100%
O 1.5
50%
33%
O 2.5
50%
33%
O 3.5
0%
0%
BTTS
25%
100%
Clean Sht
50%
0%
Failed to Score
25%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Northern Ireland Georgia →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.1% 7.1% 6.1% 3.5% 1.5% 0.5%
1 6.1% 10.4% 9.0% 5.1% 2.2% 0.8%
2 4.4% 7.6% 6.6% 3.8% 1.6% 0.6%
3 2.2% 3.7% 3.2% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3%
4 0.8% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% —

Recent form

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland
D Luxembourg 2–2
W Belarus 2–0
W Bulgaria 5–0
D Belarus 0–0
L Bulgaria 1–0
Georgia Georgia
W Armenia 6–1
W Armenia 0–3
L Czechia 2–1
D Ukraine 1–1
L Albania 0–1

Playing profile

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland
Attack
25
Defence
59
Form
23
Georgia Georgia
Attack
35
Defence
73
Form
35
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League B, Group 2

# Team G Pts
1 Hungary Hungary 0 0
2 Ukraine Ukraine 0 0
3 Georgia Georgia 0 0
4 Northern Ireland Northern Ireland 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League B, Group 2

Top 2 advance to the next round

Northern Ireland Georgia
Current #4 #1
→ Northern Ireland #1 #4
→ Draw #2 #1
→ Georgia #4 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
The model gives Northern Ireland a 34% win probability, 23% for a draw, and 41% for an Georgia win.
How many goals are expected in Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
Expected goals: Northern Ireland 1.5, Georgia 1.7 (total 3.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 90%.
What is the most likely score in Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.42%.