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Northern Ireland - Hungary

UEFA Nations League September 28, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Northern Ireland
#4 · 0 pts
vs
Hungary
#1 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
25.23%
Win
Northern Ireland
19.14%
Draw
55.63%
Win
Hungary
1.42
Expected xG
2.39
Most likely outcome
Hungary
55.63%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–2 (9.01%)
1X2 Result
1 25%
X 19%
2 56%
Double Chance
1X 44%
X2 75%
12 81%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 83%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Hungary a 55% win probability, against 19% for a draw and 25% for Northern Ireland. Expected goals are 1.4 for Northern Ireland and 2.4 for Hungary (total 3.8), with a 91% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–2 at 9.01% probability.

Season Stats

Northern Ireland
3W 2D 1L
Hungary
1W 3D 4L
Averages per game
1.8
Goals
0.6
0.5
Conceded
2.1
4.7
Shots OT
3.5
6.7
Corners
4.5
50%
Poss.
40%
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
88%
33%
O 2.5
50%
17%
BTTS
38%
67%
Clean Sht
25%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
54%
O 3.5
13%
BTTS
Northern Ireland
3W 0D 0L · at home
Hungary
1W 0D 3L · away
3.0
gls/g
0.8
0.0
Conceded
3.0
100%
Win %
25%
100%
Win or Draw
25%
100%
O 1.5
100%
33%
O 2.5
75%
33%
O 3.5
75%
0%
BTTS
25%
100%
Clean Sht
25%
0%
Failed to Score
50%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Northern Ireland Hungary →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.2% 5.3% 6.3% 5.1% 3.0% 1.4%
1 3.1% 7.5% 9.0% 7.2% 4.3% 2.0%
2 2.2% 5.3% 6.4% 5.1% 3.0% 1.5%
3 1.1% 2.5% 3.0% 2.4% 1.4% 0.7%
4 0.4% 0.9% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2%
5 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Recent form

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland
D Luxembourg 2–2
W Belarus 2–0
W Bulgaria 5–0
D Belarus 0–0
L Bulgaria 1–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 37%
Hungary Hungary
L Türkiye 0–3
L Türkiye 3–1
D Germany 1–1
L Netherlands 4–0
W Bosnia & Herzegovina 0–2

Playing profile

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland
Attack
25
Defence
59
Form
23
Hungary Hungary
Attack
43
Defence
76
Form
66
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League B, Group 2

# Team G Pts
1 Hungary Hungary 0 0
2 Ukraine Ukraine 0 0
3 Georgia Georgia 0 0
4 Northern Ireland Northern Ireland 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League B, Group 2

Top 2 advance to the next round

Northern Ireland Hungary
Current #4 #1
→ Northern Ireland #1 #2
→ Draw #2 #1
→ Hungary #4 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Northern Ireland vs Hungary?
The model gives Northern Ireland a 25% win probability, 19% for a draw, and 55% for an Hungary win.
How many goals are expected in Northern Ireland vs Hungary?
Expected goals: Northern Ireland 1.4, Hungary 2.4 (total 3.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 91%.
What is the most likely score in Northern Ireland vs Hungary?
1–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.01%.