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Championship · Regular Season - 44 April 21, 2026 20:45
Norwich
#20 · 12 pts
2 – 1
Final score
Derby
#23 · 7 pts
M. Toure (ast. A. Forson) 33'
L. Gibbs (ast. P. Maghoma) 60'
54' (ast. C. Morris) D. Ozoh
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Norwich a 44% win probability (draw 28%, Derby 26%). The final result was Norwich 2–1 Derby. In 1 previous meetings, Norwich have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Derby.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
9
6
Shots on target
8
1.54
Actual xG
1.20
7
Saves
4
55%
Possession
45%
3
Corners
4
14
Tackles
15
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽M. Toure (missed pen.)
9'
19'
B. Brereton Diaz
⚽M. Toure · ast. A. Forson
33'
M. Toure
45'+5
54'
ast. C. Morris · D. Ozoh⚽
⚽L. Gibbs · ast. P. Maghoma
60'
↕ M. Toure / M. Kvistgaarden
62'
67'
L. Salvesen / J. Banel ↕
67'
C. Forsyth / D. Murkin ↕
67'
M. Johnston / B. Brereton Diaz ↕
V. Kovacevic
69'
75'
O. Fraulo / D. Ozoh ↕
↕ A. Forson / E. Mundle Smith
80'
↕ P. Maghoma / A. Slimane
80'
82'
L. Travis
87'
O. Eames / L. Travis ↕
↕ J. Stacey / S. Field
88'
88'
M. Clarke
Pre-match prediction
44.44%
Norwich ←
28.87%
X
26.69%
Derby
we assigned to the actual result (Norwich) 44.44% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Norwich
1.32
1.54
+0.22
Derby
1.00
1.20
+0.2
Norwich dominated by xG (1.54 vs 1.20). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Norwich Norwich 4-2-3-1
1 V. Kovačević V. Kovačević G 7.20
35 K. Fisher K. Fisher D 7.00
33 J. Córdoba J. Córdoba D 6.90
6 H. Darling H. Darling D 6.30
3 J. Stacey J. Stacey 88' D 6.30
23 K. McLean K. McLean M 6.70
7 P. Mattsson P. Mattsson M 6.70
8 L. Gibbs L. Gibbs 1 ⚽ M 7.30
25 P. Maghoma P. Maghoma 1 👟 80' M 7.30
18 A. Forson A. Forson 1 👟 80' M 6.90
37 M. Touré M. Touré 1 ⚽ 62' F 6.20
Bench
20 A. Ben Slimane A. Ben Slimane 10' M 7.20
16 Jacob Wright Jacob Wright M
30 M. Kvistgaarden M. Kvistgaarden 28' F 6.90
26 S. Field S. Field 11' M 6.70
Derby Derby 4-2-3-1
1
G 7.90
2
D. Murkin 67' D 5.90
5 Matt Clarke Matt Clarke D 6.20
6 S. Langås S. Langås D 6.00
23
D 6.50
18 D. Ozoh D. Ozoh 1 ⚽ 75' M 7.30
27 L. Travis L. Travis 87' M 7.20
34
J. Banel 67' M 6.20
19 S. Szmodics S. Szmodics M 6.20
25 B. Brereton B. Brereton 67' M 6.00
9 C. Morris C. Morris 1 👟 F 6.60
Bench
3 C. Forsyth C. Forsyth 23' D 6.90
22 M. Johnston M. Johnston 23' D 6.90
29 O. Fraulo O. Fraulo 15' M 6.70
Best on the pitch
G · Derby
7.90
· 37 pass
L. Gibbs
L. Gibbs
M · Norwich
7.30
1 ⚽
3 shots · 24 pass
P. Maghoma
P. Maghoma
M · Norwich
7.30
1 👟
2 shots · 38 pass
D. Ozoh
D. Ozoh
M · Derby
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 29 pass
V. Kovačević
V. Kovačević
G · Norwich
7.20
· 32 pass
A. Ben Slimane
A. Ben Slimane
M · Norwich
7.20
· 20 pass
Norwich Norwich — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
V. Kovačević G 90 7.20 — — — 32 20% — 1 —
K. Fisher D 90 7.00 — — — 40 31% 2 — —
J. Córdoba D 90 6.90 — — — 43 32% 3 — —
H. Darling D 90 6.30 — — — 41 31% — — —
J. Stacey D 88 6.30 — — — 32 25% — — —
K. McLean M 90 6.70 — — 1 58 41% 3 — —
P. Mattsson M 90 6.70 — — — 39 33% 2 — —
L. Gibbs M 90 7.30 1 — 3 24 19% 1 — —
P. Maghoma M 80 7.30 — 1 2 38 31% 1 — —
A. Forson M 80 6.90 — 1 1 17 9% 2 — —
M. Touré F 62 6.20 1 — 2 16 11% — 1 —
A. Ben Slimane M 10 7.20 — — — 20 17% — — —
M. Kvistgaarden F 28 6.90 — — 1 9 4% — — —
S. Field M 11 6.70 — — — 4 3% — — —
Derby Derby — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.90 — — — 37 17% — — —
D. Murkin D 67 5.90 — — — 20 16% 1 — —
Matt Clarke D 90 6.20 — — — 40 24% 1 1 —
S. Langås D 90 6.00 — — 1 40 29% 1 — —
D 90 6.50 — — 1 26 21% 2 — —
D. Ozoh M 75 7.30 1 — 1 29 26% 4 — —
L. Travis M 87 7.20 — — — 51 39% 3 1 —
J. Banel M 67 6.20 — — — 11 6% 1 — —
S. Szmodics M 90 6.20 — — 3 21 17% — — —
B. Brereton M 67 6.00 — — — 14 9% — 1 —
C. Morris F 90 6.60 — 1 2 25 15% — — —
C. Forsyth D 23 6.90 — — — 10 8% — — —
M. Johnston D 23 6.90 — — 1 5 4% 1 — —
O. Fraulo M 15 6.70 — — — 6 4% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Norwich vs Derby?
The final score was Norwich 2–1 Derby.
What did the model predict before Norwich vs Derby?
The model assigned 44% probability to a Norwich win, 28% to a draw, and 26% to an Derby win.