← Championship
Championship · Regular Season - 44 April 21, 2026 20:45
Norwich
#9 · 65 pts
2 – 1
Final score
Derby
#8 · 69 pts
M. Toure (ast. A. Forson) 33'
L. Gibbs (ast. P. Maghoma) 60'
54' (ast. C. Morris) D. Ozoh

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Norwich a 44% win probability (draw 28%, Derby 26%). The final result was Norwich 2–1 Derby. In 1 previous meetings, Norwich have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Derby.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
9
6
Shots on target
8
1.54
Actual xG
1.20
7
Saves
4
55%
Possession
45%
3
Corners
4
14
Tackles
15
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽M. Toure (missed pen.)
9'
19'
B. Brereton Diaz
⚽M. Toure · ast. A. Forson
33'
M. Toure
45'+5
54'
ast. C. Morris · D. Ozoh⚽
⚽L. Gibbs · ast. P. Maghoma
60'
↕ M. Toure / M. Kvistgaarden
62'
67'
L. Salvesen / J. Banel ↕
67'
C. Forsyth / D. Murkin ↕
67'
M. Johnston / B. Brereton Diaz ↕
V. Kovacevic
69'
75'
O. Fraulo / D. Ozoh ↕
↕ A. Forson / E. Mundle Smith
80'
↕ P. Maghoma / A. Slimane
80'
82'
L. Travis
87'
O. Eames / L. Travis ↕
↕ J. Stacey / S. Field
88'
88'
M. Clarke
Pre-match prediction
44.44%
Norwich ←
28.87%
X
26.69%
Derby
we assigned to the actual result (Norwich) 44.44% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Norwich
1.32
1.54
+0.22
Derby
1.00
1.20
+0.2
Norwich dominated by xG (1.54 vs 1.20). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Coventry Coventry 46 95
2 Ipswich Ipswich 46 84
3 Millwall Millwall 46 83
4 Southampton Southampton 46 80
5 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 46 80
6 Hull City Hull City 46 73
7 Wrexham Wrexham 46 71
8 Derby Derby 46 69
9 Norwich Norwich 46 65
10 Birmingham Birmingham 46 64
11 Swansea Swansea 46 64
12 Bristol City Bristol City 46 62
13 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 46 60
14 Preston Preston 46 60
15 QPR QPR 46 58
16 Watford Watford 46 57
17 Stoke City Stoke City 46 55
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 46 55
19 Charlton Charlton 46 53
20 Blackburn Blackburn 46 52
21 West Brom West Brom 46 51
22 Oxford United Oxford United 46 47
23 Leicester Leicester 46 46
24 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 46 0
Lineups
Norwich Norwich 4-2-3-1
1
V. Kovacevic G 7.20
35 K. Fisher K. Fisher D 7.00
33
J. Cordoba D 6.90
6
H. Darling D 6.30
3
J. Stacey 88' D 6.30
23
K. McLean M 6.70
7
Pelle Mattsson M 6.70
8
L. Gibbs 1 ⚽ M 7.30
25
P. Maghoma 1 👟 80' M 7.30
18
A. Forson 1 👟 80' M 6.90
37
M. Toure 1 ⚽ 62' F 6.20
Bench
20
A. Slimane 10' M 7.20
16
Jacob Wright M
30
M. Kvistgaarden 28' F 6.90
26
S. Field 11' M 6.70
Derby Derby 4-2-3-1
1
G 7.90
2
D. Murkin 67' D 5.90
5
M. Clarke D 6.20
6
S. Langas D 6.00
23
D 6.50
18
D. Ozoh 1 ⚽ 75' M 7.30
27 L. Travis L. Travis 87' M 7.20
34
J. Banel 67' M 6.20
19
S. Szmodics M 6.20
25
B. Brereton Diaz 67' M 6.00
9 C. Morris C. Morris 1 👟 F 6.60
Bench
3
C. Forsyth 23' D 6.90
22 M. Johnston M. Johnston 23' D 6.90
29
O. Fraulo 15' M 6.70
Best on the pitch
G · Derby
7.90
· 37 pass
L. Gibbs
M · Norwich
7.30
1 ⚽
3 shots · 24 pass
P. Maghoma
M · Norwich
7.30
1 👟
2 shots · 38 pass
D. Ozoh
M · Derby
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 29 pass
V. Kovacevic
G · Norwich
7.20
· 32 pass
A. Slimane
M · Norwich
7.20
· 20 pass
Norwich Norwich — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
V. Kovacevic G 90 7.20 — — — 32 20% — 1 —
K. Fisher D 90 7.00 — — — 40 31% 2 — —
J. Cordoba D 90 6.90 — — — 43 32% 3 — —
H. Darling D 90 6.30 — — — 41 31% — — —
J. Stacey D 88 6.30 — — — 32 25% — — —
K. McLean M 90 6.70 — — 1 58 41% 3 — —
Pelle Mattsson M 90 6.70 — — — 39 33% 2 — —
L. Gibbs M 90 7.30 1 — 3 24 19% 1 — —
P. Maghoma M 80 7.30 — 1 2 38 31% 1 — —
A. Forson M 80 6.90 — 1 1 17 9% 2 — —
M. Toure F 62 6.20 1 — 2 16 11% — 1 —
A. Slimane M 10 7.20 — — — 20 17% — — —
M. Kvistgaarden F 28 6.90 — — 1 9 4% — — —
S. Field M 11 6.70 — — — 4 3% — — —
Derby Derby — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.90 — — — 37 17% — — —
D. Murkin D 67 5.90 — — — 20 16% 1 — —
M. Clarke D 90 6.20 — — — 40 24% 1 1 —
S. Langas D 90 6.00 — — 1 40 29% 1 — —
D 90 6.50 — — 1 26 21% 2 — —
D. Ozoh M 75 7.30 1 — 1 29 26% 4 — —
L. Travis M 87 7.20 — — — 51 39% 3 1 —
J. Banel M 67 6.20 — — — 11 6% 1 — —
S. Szmodics M 90 6.20 — — 3 21 17% — — —
B. Brereton Diaz M 67 6.00 — — — 14 9% — 1 —
C. Morris F 90 6.60 — 1 2 25 15% — — —
C. Forsyth D 23 6.90 — — — 10 8% — — —
M. Johnston D 23 6.90 — — 1 5 4% 1 — —
O. Fraulo M 15 6.70 — — — 6 4% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Norwich vs Derby?
The final score was Norwich 2–1 Derby.
What did the model predict before Norwich vs Derby?
The model assigned 44% probability to a Norwich win, 28% to a draw, and 26% to an Derby win.