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Championship · Regular Season - 10 October 14, 2026 20:45 Carrow Road, Norwich
Norwich
#20 · 12 pts
0 – 1
Final score
Southampton
#6 · 20 pts
54' Kuryu Matsuki
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Norwich a 37% win probability (draw 26%, Southampton 35%). The final result was Norwich 0–1 Southampton. In 3 previous meetings, Norwich have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Southampton.

Match statistics
12
Total shots
15
4
Shots on target
4
1.15
Actual xG
2.40
3
Saves
3
49%
Possession
51%
5
Corners
3
14
Tackles
9
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
15'
Ryan Manning
22'
Caspar Jander / Flynn Downes ↕
26'
Zach Abbott
45'
Welington / Ryan Manning ↕
45'
James Bree / Zach Abbott ↕
Jacob Wright
48'
54'
Kuryu Matsuki⚽
↕ Anis Ben Slimane / Paris Maghoma
61'
↕ Mathias Kvistgaarden / J. Makama
61'
70'
Cyle Larin / Samuel Edozie ↕
↕ Oscar Schwartau / Anthony Musaba
72'
↕ Andre Brooks / Ante Crnac
72'
↕ Jacob Wright / Samuel Field
76'
Samuel Field
77'
82'
Divin Mubama / Lewis Dobbin ↕
Pre-match prediction
37.71%
Norwich
26.97%
X
35.32%
Southampton ←
we assigned to the actual result (Southampton) 35.32% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Norwich
1.83
1.15
-0.68
Southampton
1.74
2.40
+0.66
Southampton dominated by xG (2.40 vs 1.15). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Norwich Norwich 4-2-3-1
32 D. Grimshaw D. Grimshaw G 6.76
14 B. Chrisene B. Chrisene D 6.94
33 J. Córdoba J. Córdoba D 6.62
15 Ruairi McConville Ruairi McConville D 7.17
3 J. Stacey J. Stacey D 6.28
7 P. Mattsson P. Mattsson M 7.20
16 Jacob Wright Jacob Wright 76' M 6.96
29 O. Schwartau O. Schwartau 72' M 6.20
20 A. Ben Slimane A. Ben Slimane 61' M 6.68
11 A. Brooks A. Brooks 72' M 6.41
30 M. Kvistgaarden M. Kvistgaarden 61' F 6.09
Bench
17 A. Crnac A. Crnac 18' F 5.96
49 A. Musaba A. Musaba 18' F 6.64
40 C. Ansen C. Ansen G 0.00
13 D. Yongwa D. Yongwa D 0.00
6 H. Darling H. Darling D 0.00
24 J. Makama J. Makama 29' F 6.45
12 L. Mahovo L. Mahovo D 0.00
25 P. Maghoma P. Maghoma 29' M 6.39
26 S. Field S. Field 14' M 6.29
Southampton Southampton 4-2-3-1
1 Daniel Peretz Daniel Peretz G 7.03
3 R. Manning R. Manning 45' D 7.07
13 K. Schlotterbeck K. Schlotterbeck D 6.84
5 J. Stephens J. Stephens D 7.41
6 Z. Abbott Z. Abbott 45' D 6.49
4 F. Downes F. Downes 22' M 6.93
30 J. Ward-Prowse J. Ward-Prowse M 7.20
23 S. Edozie S. Edozie 70' M 6.73
10 F. Azaz F. Azaz M 7.31
27 K. Matsuki K. Matsuki 1 ⚽ M 8.10
11 L. Dobbin L. Dobbin 82' F 6.35
Bench
8 C. Jander C. Jander 68' M 7.20
9 C. Larin C. Larin 20' F 6.60
28 D. Mubama D. Mubama 8' F 6.62
25 G. Long G. Long G 0.00
14 J. Bree J. Bree 45' D 6.99
7 Léo Scienza Léo Scienza M 0.00
15 N. Wood-Gordon N. Wood-Gordon D 0.00
18 T. Fellows T. Fellows M 0.00
34 Welington Welington 45' D 7.11
Best on the pitch
K. Matsuki
K. Matsuki
M · Southampton
8.10
1 ⚽
3 shots · 23 pass
J. Stephens
J. Stephens
D · Southampton
7.41
· 66 pass
F. Azaz
F. Azaz
M · Southampton
7.31
3 shots · 47 pass
C. Jander
C. Jander
M · Southampton
7.20
2 shots · 45 pass
P. Mattsson
P. Mattsson
M · Norwich
7.20
· 56 pass
J. Ward-Prowse
J. Ward-Prowse
M · Southampton
7.20
1 shots · 68 pass
Norwich Norwich — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. Grimshaw G 90 6.76 — — 0 44 35% 0 — —
B. Chrisene D 90 6.94 — — 2 31 24% 1 — —
J. Córdoba D 90 6.62 — — 1 68 59% 2 — —
Ruairi McConville D 90 7.17 — — 0 76 66% 1 — —
J. Stacey D 90 6.28 — — 0 29 21% 1 — —
P. Mattsson M 90 7.20 — — 0 56 49% 4 — —
Jacob Wright M 76 6.96 — — 2 52 46% 0 1 —
O. Schwartau M 72 6.20 — — 1 15 10% 0 — —
A. Ben Slimane M 61 6.68 — — 0 14 11% 3 — —
A. Brooks M 72 6.41 — — 1 17 12% 0 — —
M. Kvistgaarden F 61 6.09 — — 1 5 4% 0 — —
A. Crnac F 18 5.96 — — 0 6 4% 0 — —
A. Musaba F 18 6.64 — — 2 5 4% 0 — —
J. Makama F 29 6.45 — — 2 7 6% 1 — —
P. Maghoma M 29 6.39 — — 0 9 4% 0 — —
S. Field M 14 6.29 — — 0 7 6% 1 1 —
Southampton Southampton — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Daniel Peretz G 90 7.03 — — 0 40 27% 0 — —
R. Manning D 45 7.07 — — 2 20 17% 0 1 —
K. Schlotterbeck D 90 6.84 — — 1 69 57% 0 — —
J. Stephens D 90 7.41 — — 0 66 59% 0 — —
Z. Abbott D 45 6.49 — — 0 10 7% 0 1 —
F. Downes M 22 6.93 — — 0 9 9% 1 — —
J. Ward-Prowse M 90 7.20 — — 1 68 63% 0 — —
S. Edozie M 70 6.73 — — 2 14 12% 0 — —
F. Azaz M 90 7.31 — — 3 47 33% 0 — —
K. Matsuki M 90 8.10 1 — 3 23 18% 0 — —
L. Dobbin F 82 6.35 — — 0 15 14% 2 — —
C. Jander M 68 7.20 — — 2 45 44% 4 — —
C. Larin F 20 6.60 — — 1 4 3% 0 — —
D. Mubama F 8 6.62 — — 0 5 5% 0 — —
J. Bree D 45 6.99 — — 0 19 11% 1 — —
Welington D 45 7.11 — — 0 14 12% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Norwich vs Southampton?
The final score was Norwich 0–1 Southampton.
What did the model predict before Norwich vs Southampton?
The model assigned 37% probability to a Norwich win, 26% to a draw, and 35% to an Southampton win.