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Premier League · Regular Season - 7 October 18, 2026 17:30 City Ground, Nottingham
Nottingham Forest
#18 · 6 pts
0 – 1
Final score
Arsenal
#2 · 21 pts
80' (ast. Declan Rice) Noni Madueke
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Arsenal a 39% win probability (draw 29%, Nottingham Forest 30%). The final result was Nottingham Forest 0–1 Arsenal. In 2 previous meetings, Nottingham Forest have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Arsenal.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
9
2
Shots on target
1
0.79
Actual xG
1.09
0
Saves
2
26%
Possession
74%
8
Corners
6
22
Tackles
9
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Neco Williams
17'
45'
Noni Madueke / Eberechi Eze ↕
53'
Noni Madueke
66'
Jurriën Timber / Ben White ↕
66'
Viktor Gyökeres / Kai Havertz ↕
66'
Mikel Merino / Bruno Guimarães ↕
↕ Dan Ndoye / Arnaud Kalimuendo
73'
↕ Nicolás Domínguez / Ibrahim Sangaré
74'
80'
ast. Declan Rice · Noni Madueke⚽
↕ Jair Cunha / Chris Wood
85'
↕ James Mcatee / Callum Hudson-Odoi
85'
Pre-match prediction
30.61%
Nottingham
29.4%
X
39.98%
Arsenal ←
we assigned to the actual result (Arsenal) 39.98% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Nottingham
1.13
0.79
-0.34
Arsenal
1.49
1.09
-0.4
xG dominance was balanced (0.79 – 1.09). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Manchester City Manchester City 8 21
2 Arsenal Arsenal 8 21
3 Brighton Brighton 8 16
4 Liverpool Liverpool 8 15
5 Chelsea Chelsea 8 13
6 Brentford Brentford 8 11
7 Leeds Leeds 8 11
8 Newcastle Newcastle 8 11
9 Aston Villa Aston Villa 8 11
10 Hull City Hull City 8 10
11 Everton Everton 8 10
12 Ipswich Ipswich 8 10
13 Bournemouth Bournemouth 8 9
14 Tottenham Tottenham 8 9
15 Fulham Fulham 8 8
16 Manchester United Manchester United 8 7
17 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 8 7
18 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 8 6
19 Coventry Coventry 8 6
20 Sunderland Sunderland 8 5
Lineups
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1
26 M. Sels M. Sels G 5.55
5 Murillo Murillo D 7.57
2 O. Diomande O. Diomande D 6.75
23 Jair Jair 85' D 6.83
3 N. Williams N. Williams M 5.97
21 X. Schlager X. Schlager M 6.63
24 J. McAtee J. McAtee 85' M 6.58
27 D. Muñoz D. Muñoz M 6.39
14 D. Ndoye D. Ndoye 73' M 6.13
8 N. Domínguez N. Domínguez 74' M 6.73
19 L. Delap L. Delap F 6.15
Bench
15 A. Kalimuendo A. Kalimuendo 17' F 6.30
7 C. Hudson-Odoi C. Hudson-Odoi 5' F 6.43
9 C. Wood C. Wood 5' F 6.34
6 I. Sangaré I. Sangaré 16' M 6.49
12 John John G 0.00
25 L. Netz L. Netz D 0.00
31 N. Milenković N. Milenković D 0.00
34 O. Aina O. Aina D 0.00
22 R. Yates R. Yates M 0.00
Arsenal Arsenal 4-2-3-1
1 David Raya David Raya G 6.86
33 R. Calafiori R. Calafiori D 7.19
6 Gabriel Magalhães Gabriel Magalhães D 7.53
15 E. Konsa E. Konsa D 7.43
4 B. White B. White 66' D 7.25
39 Bruno Guimarães Bruno Guimarães 66' M 7.30
41 D. Rice D. Rice 1 👟 M 7.70
10 E. Eze E. Eze 45' M 6.69
8 M. Ødegaard M. Ødegaard M 6.83
7 B. Saka B. Saka M 6.54
29 K. Havertz K. Havertz 66' F 6.34
Bench
3 Cristhian Mosquera Cristhian Mosquera D 0.00
30 I. Meslier I. Meslier G 0.00
12 J. Timber J. Timber 24' D 7.11
36 Martín Zubimendi Martín Zubimendi M 0.00
56 M. Dowman M. Dowman F 0.00
23 Mikel Merino Mikel Merino 24' M 7.13
49 M. Lewis-Skelly M. Lewis-Skelly D 0.00
20 N. Madueke N. Madueke 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.40
14 V. Gyökeres V. Gyökeres 24' F 6.60
Best on the pitch
D. Rice
D. Rice
M · Arsenal
7.70
1 👟
1 shots · 98 pass
Murillo
Murillo
D · Nottingham
7.57
3 shots · 34 pass
Gabriel Magalhães
Gabriel Magalhães
D · Arsenal
7.53
2 shots · 73 pass
E. Konsa
E. Konsa
D · Arsenal
7.43
· 81 pass
N. Madueke
N. Madueke
F · Arsenal
7.40
1 ⚽
2 shots · 17 pass
Bruno Guimarães
Bruno Guimarães
M · Arsenal
7.30
· 56 pass
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Sels G 90 5.55 — — 0 34 16% 0 — —
Murillo D 90 7.57 — — 3 34 27% 2 — —
O. Diomande D 90 6.75 — — 0 18 12% 3 — —
Jair D 85 6.83 — — 0 15 13% 0 — —
N. Williams M 90 5.97 — — 1 23 16% 1 1 —
X. Schlager M 90 6.63 — — 1 15 10% 7 — —
J. McAtee M 85 6.58 — — 2 24 18% 2 — —
D. Muñoz M 90 6.39 — — 0 14 12% 2 — —
D. Ndoye M 73 6.13 — — 2 6 5% 0 — —
N. Domínguez M 74 6.73 — — 0 10 7% 3 — —
L. Delap F 90 6.15 — — 4 14 10% 1 — —
A. Kalimuendo F 17 6.30 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
C. Hudson-Odoi F 5 6.43 — — 0 5 3% 0 — —
C. Wood F 5 6.34 — — 1 1 1% 0 — —
I. Sangaré M 16 6.49 — — 0 8 5% 1 — —
Arsenal Arsenal — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
David Raya G 90 6.86 — — 0 23 15% 0 — —
R. Calafiori D 90 7.19 — — 0 42 40% 0 — —
Gabriel Magalhães D 90 7.53 — — 2 73 70% 2 — —
E. Konsa D 90 7.43 — — 0 81 79% 1 — —
B. White D 66 7.25 — — 0 55 48% 0 — —
Bruno Guimarães M 66 7.30 — — 0 56 51% 2 — —
D. Rice M 90 7.70 — 1 1 98 92% 0 — —
E. Eze M 45 6.69 — — 0 13 9% 0 — —
M. Ødegaard M 90 6.83 — — 0 75 69% 0 — —
B. Saka M 90 6.54 — — 0 35 26% 4 — —
K. Havertz F 66 6.34 — — 2 15 12% 0 — —
J. Timber D 24 7.11 — — 0 16 14% 0 — —
Mikel Merino M 24 7.13 — — 1 22 19% 0 — —
N. Madueke F 45 7.40 1 — 2 17 16% 0 1 —
V. Gyökeres F 24 6.60 — — 1 8 5% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
The final score was Nottingham Forest 0–1 Arsenal.
What did the model predict before Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
The model assigned 30% probability to a Nottingham Forest win, 29% to a draw, and 39% to an Arsenal win.