Neco Williams
(ast. Callum Hudson-Odoi)
38'
(og)
23'
Murillo
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Nottingham Forest a 40% win probability (draw 30%, Aston Villa 28%). The final result was Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa. In 3 previous meetings, Nottingham Forest have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Aston Villa.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
12
4
Shots on target
5
1.20
Actual xG
0.98
5
Saves
4
41%
Possession
59%
7
Corners
3
15
Tackles
14
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
11'
Matty Cash
23'
(og)
Murillo⚽
⚽Neco Williams
· ast. Callum Hudson-Odoi
38'
Omari Hutchinson
45'
Murillo
63'
Omari Hutchinson
/ Chris Wood
65'
67'
John McGinn
77'
Douglas Luiz
/
Ross Barkley
78'
Emiliano Buendía
/
Morgan Rogers
78'
Ian Maatsen
/
Lucas Digne
Morgan Gibbs-White
/ Nicolás Domínguez
84'
87'
Tammy Abraham
/
Ollie Watkins
Ola Aina
/ Dan Ndoye
89'
Igor Jesus
/ Ryan Yates
89'
90'
Andrés García
/
Matty Cash
Pre-match prediction
40.75%
Nottingham
30.27%
X ←
28.98%
Aston
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
30.27%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.32
1.20
-0.12
1.08
0.98
-0.09
xG dominance was balanced (1.20 – 0.98).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
26
G
3
N. Williams
1 ⚽
D
N. Williams
1 ⚽
D
5
Murillo
1 ⚽
D
31
N. Milenković
D
N. Milenković
D
34
O. Aina
89'
D
8
Elliot Anderson
M
Elliot Anderson
M
6
I. Sangaré
M
I. Sangaré
M
7
C. Hudson-Odoi
1 👟
M
10
M. Gibbs-White
84'
M
M. Gibbs-White
84'
M
21
Omari Hutchinson
65'
M
Omari Hutchinson
65'
M
19
Igor Jesus
89'
F
Igor Jesus
89'
F
Bench
11
C. Wood
30'
F
C. Wood
30'
F
14
Dan Ndoye
6'
F
Dan Ndoye
6'
F
29
Dilane Bakwa
F
Dilane Bakwa
F
24
James McAtee
M
James McAtee
M
4
Morato
D
Morato
D
16
Nicolás Domínguez
11'
M
Nicolás Domínguez
11'
M
22
Ryan Yates
6'
M
Ryan Yates
6'
M
40
G
12
Lucas Digne
78'
D
Lucas Digne
78'
D
14
Pau Torres
D
Pau Torres
D
3
V. Lindelöf
D
V. Lindelöf
D
2
M. Cash
D
M. Cash
D
8
Youri Tielemans
M
Youri Tielemans
M
24
Amadou Onana
M
Amadou Onana
M
27
Morgan Rogers
78'
M
Morgan Rogers
78'
M
6
Ross Barkley
77'
M
Ross Barkley
77'
M
7
John McGinn
M
John McGinn
M
11
Ollie Watkins
87'
F
Ollie Watkins
87'
F
Bench
21
Douglas Luiz
18'
M
Douglas Luiz
18'
M
10
E. Buendía
17'
M
E. Buendía
17'
M
4
Ezri Konsa
D
Ezri Konsa
D
22
Ian Maatsen
17'
D
Ian Maatsen
17'
D
26
Lamare Bogarde
M
Lamare Bogarde
M
18
Tammy Abraham
8'
F
Tammy Abraham
8'
F
Best on the pitch
N. Williams
D · Nottingham
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 24 pass
O. Aina
D · Nottingham
7.60
· 39 pass
C. Hudson-Odoi
M · Nottingham
7.50
1 👟
· 23 pass
John McGinn
M · Aston
7.30
2 shots
· 35 pass
Youri Tielemans
M · Aston
7.20
1 shots
· 44 pass
Ross Barkley
M · Aston
7.20
1 shots
· 25 pass
Nottingham Forest — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 28 | 20% | — | — | — | |
| N. Williams | D | 95 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 24 | 19% | 3 | — | — |
| Murillo | D | 95 | 5.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 47 | 39% | — | 1 | — |
| N. Milenković | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 37 | 35% | 3 | — | — |
| O. Aina | D | 89 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 39 | 31% | 3 | — | — |
| Elliot Anderson | M | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Sangaré | M | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 26% | 4 | — | — |
| C. Hudson-Odoi | M | 95 | 7.50 | — | 1 | — | 23 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Gibbs-White | M | 84 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Omari Hutchinson | M | 65 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | — | 1 | — |
| Igor Jesus | F | 89 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 13 | 7% | — | — | — |
| C. Wood | F | 30 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Dan Ndoye | F | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Domínguez | M | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Ryan Yates | M | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Aston Villa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 37 | 29% | — | — | — | |
| Lucas Digne | D | 78 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 37 | 32% | 4 | — | — |
| Pau Torres | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 77 | 71% | 1 | — | — |
| V. Lindelöf | D | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 65 | 61% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Cash | D | 91 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 37% | — | 1 | — |
| Youri Tielemans | M | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 36% | 3 | — | — |
| Amadou Onana | M | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 47% | 2 | — | — |
| Morgan Rogers | M | 78 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 33 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| Ross Barkley | M | 77 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| John McGinn | M | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 35 | 32% | — | 1 | — |
| Ollie Watkins | F | 87 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Douglas Luiz | M | 18 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| E. Buendía | M | 17 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Ian Maatsen | D | 17 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Tammy Abraham | F | 8 | 6.50 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
The final score was Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa.
What did the model predict before Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
The model assigned 40% probability to a Nottingham Forest win, 30% to a draw, and 28% to an Aston Villa win.