Neco Williams
(ast. Callum Hudson-Odoi)
38'
(og)
23'
Murillo
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Nottingham Forest a 40% win probability (draw 30%, Aston Villa 28%). The final result was Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa. In 4 previous meetings, Nottingham Forest have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Aston Villa.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
12
4
Shots on target
5
1.20
Actual xG
0.98
5
Saves
4
41%
Possession
59%
7
Corners
3
15
Tackles
14
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
11'
Matty Cash
23'
(og)
Murillo⚽
⚽Neco Williams
· ast. Callum Hudson-Odoi
38'
Omari Hutchinson
45'
Murillo
63'
Omari Hutchinson
/ Chris Wood
65'
67'
John McGinn
77'
Douglas Luiz
/
Ross Barkley
78'
Emiliano Buendía
/
Morgan Rogers
78'
Ian Maatsen
/
Lucas Digne
Morgan Gibbs-White
/ Nicolás Domínguez
84'
87'
Tammy Abraham
/
Ollie Watkins
Ola Aina
/ Dan Ndoye
89'
Igor Jesus
/ Ryan Yates
89'
90'
Andrés García
/
Matty Cash
Pre-match prediction
40.75%
Nottingham
30.27%
X ←
28.98%
Aston
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
30.27%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.32
1.20
-0.12
1.08
0.98
-0.09
xG dominance was balanced (1.20 – 0.98).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
26
G
3
N. Williams
1 ⚽
D
N. Williams
1 ⚽
D
5
Murillo
1 ⚽
D
Murillo
1 ⚽
D
31
N. Milenković
D
N. Milenković
D
34
O. Aina
89'
D
O. Aina
89'
D
8
E. Anderson
M
E. Anderson
M
6
I. Sangaré
M
I. Sangaré
M
7
C. Hudson-Odoi
1 👟
M
C. Hudson-Odoi
1 👟
M
10
M. Gibbs-White
84'
M
M. Gibbs-White
84'
M
21
O. Hutchinson
65'
M
O. Hutchinson
65'
M
19
Igor Jesus
89'
F
Igor Jesus
89'
F
Bench
11
C. Wood
30'
F
C. Wood
30'
F
29
D. Bakwa
F
D. Bakwa
F
14
D. Ndoye
6'
F
D. Ndoye
6'
F
24
J. McAtee
M
J. McAtee
M
4
Morato
D
Morato
D
16
N. Domínguez
11'
M
N. Domínguez
11'
M
22
R. Yates
6'
M
R. Yates
6'
M
40
G
12
L. Digne
78'
D
L. Digne
78'
D
14
Pau Torres
D
Pau Torres
D
3
V. Lindelöf
D
V. Lindelöf
D
2
M. Cash
D
M. Cash
D
8
Y. Tielemans
M
Y. Tielemans
M
24
Amadou Onana
M
Amadou Onana
M
27
M. Rogers
78'
M
M. Rogers
78'
M
6
R. Barkley
77'
M
R. Barkley
77'
M
7
J. McGinn
M
J. McGinn
M
11
O. Watkins
87'
F
O. Watkins
87'
F
Bench
21
Douglas Luiz
18'
M
Douglas Luiz
18'
M
10
E. Buendía
17'
M
E. Buendía
17'
M
4
E. Konsa
D
E. Konsa
D
22
I. Maatsen
17'
D
I. Maatsen
17'
D
26
L. Bogarde
M
L. Bogarde
M
18
T. Abraham
8'
F
T. Abraham
8'
F
Best on the pitch
N. Williams
D · Nottingham
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 24 pass
O. Aina
D · Nottingham
7.60
· 39 pass
C. Hudson-Odoi
M · Nottingham
7.50
1 👟
· 23 pass
J. McGinn
M · Aston
7.30
2 shots
· 35 pass
Y. Tielemans
M · Aston
7.20
1 shots
· 44 pass
R. Barkley
M · Aston
7.20
1 shots
· 25 pass
Nottingham Forest — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 28 | 20% | — | — | — | |
| N. Williams | D | 95 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 24 | 19% | 3 | — | — |
| Murillo | D | 95 | 5.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 47 | 39% | — | 1 | — |
| N. Milenković | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 37 | 35% | 3 | — | — |
| O. Aina | D | 89 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 39 | 31% | 3 | — | — |
| E. Anderson | M | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Sangaré | M | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 26% | 4 | — | — |
| C. Hudson-Odoi | M | 95 | 7.50 | — | 1 | — | 23 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Gibbs-White | M | 84 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 19% | — | — | — |
| O. Hutchinson | M | 65 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | — | 1 | — |
| Igor Jesus | F | 89 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 13 | 7% | — | — | — |
| C. Wood | F | 30 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| D. Ndoye | F | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Domínguez | M | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| R. Yates | M | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Aston Villa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 37 | 29% | — | — | — | |
| L. Digne | D | 78 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 37 | 32% | 4 | — | — |
| Pau Torres | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 77 | 71% | 1 | — | — |
| V. Lindelöf | D | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 65 | 61% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Cash | D | 91 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 37% | — | 1 | — |
| Y. Tielemans | M | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 36% | 3 | — | — |
| Amadou Onana | M | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 47% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Rogers | M | 78 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 33 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Barkley | M | 77 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| J. McGinn | M | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 35 | 32% | — | 1 | — |
| O. Watkins | F | 87 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Douglas Luiz | M | 18 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| E. Buendía | M | 17 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
| I. Maatsen | D | 17 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| T. Abraham | F | 8 | 6.50 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
The final score was Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa.
What did the model predict before Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
The model assigned 40% probability to a Nottingham Forest win, 30% to a draw, and 28% to an Aston Villa win.