Premier League
· Regular Season - 1
August 22, 2026 16:00
88'
A. Stach
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Nottingham Forest a 33% win probability (draw 32%, Leeds 33%). The final result was Nottingham Forest 0–1 Leeds. In 3 previous meetings, Nottingham Forest have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Leeds.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
3
2
Shots on target
1
0.33
Actual xG
0.28
1
Saves
3
52%
Possession
48%
1
Corners
1
6
Tackles
15
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
O. Aina
18'
25'
32'
D. Calvert-Lewin
Cunha
52'
D. Ndoye
/ C. Wood
62'
66'
N. Okafor
/
H. Wilson
O. Aina
/ L. Netz
74'
J. McAtee
/ X. Schlager
74'
82'
S. Longstaff
/
B. Aaronson
88'
A. Stach⚽
Murillo
/ A. Kalimuendo
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
33.98%
Nottingham
32.9%
X
33.12%
Leeds ←
we assigned to the actual result (Leeds)
33.12%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.46
0.33
-1.13
1.12
0.28
-0.84
xG dominance was balanced (0.33 – 0.28).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
26
M. Sels
63'
G
M. Sels
63'
G
5
Murillo
63'
D
Murillo
63'
D
31
N. Milenković
63'
D
N. Milenković
63'
D
23
Jair
63'
D
Jair
63'
D
3
N. Williams
63'
M
N. Williams
63'
M
6
I. Sangaré
63'
M
I. Sangaré
63'
M
24
J. McAtee
63'
M
J. McAtee
63'
M
34
O. Aina
63'
M
O. Aina
63'
M
10
M. Gibbs-White
63'
F
M. Gibbs-White
63'
F
14
D. Ndoye
62'
F
D. Ndoye
62'
F
11
Igor Jesus
63'
F
Igor Jesus
63'
F
Bench
15
A. Kalimuendo
F
A. Kalimuendo
F
7
C. Hudson-Odoi
F
C. Hudson-Odoi
F
9
C. Wood
1'
F
C. Wood
1'
F
12
John
G
John
G
25
L. Netz
D
L. Netz
D
8
N. Domínguez
M
N. Domínguez
M
2
O. Diomande
D
O. Diomande
D
21
X. Schlager
M
X. Schlager
M
44
Z. Abbott
D
Z. Abbott
D
1
J. Trafford
63'
G
J. Trafford
63'
G
5
T. Muharemović
63'
D
T. Muharemović
63'
D
15
J. Bijol
63'
D
J. Bijol
63'
D
6
Joe Rodon
63'
D
Joe Rodon
63'
D
24
J. Justin
63'
M
J. Justin
63'
M
4
E. Ampadu
63'
M
E. Ampadu
63'
M
18
A. Stach
1 ⚽
63'
M
A. Stach
1 ⚽
63'
M
2
J. Bogle
63'
M
J. Bogle
63'
M
11
B. Aaronson
63'
F
B. Aaronson
63'
F
10
H. Wilson
63'
F
H. Wilson
63'
F
9
D. Calvert-Lewin
63'
F
D. Calvert-Lewin
63'
F
Bench
50
Alfie Cresswell
M
Alfie Cresswell
M
22
A. Tanaka
M
A. Tanaka
M
7
D. James
F
D. James
F
65
Jayden Lienou
D
Jayden Lienou
D
14
L. Nmecha
F
L. Nmecha
F
23
Lucas Perri
G
Lucas Perri
G
30
N. Elvedi
D
N. Elvedi
D
19
N. Okafor
F
N. Okafor
F
8
S. Longstaff
M
S. Longstaff
M
Best on the pitch
J. Justin
M · Leeds
7.30
· 17 pass
E. Ampadu
M · Leeds
7.20
· 39 pass
J. McAtee
M · Nottingham
7.20
· 28 pass
J. Trafford
G · Leeds
7.20
· 26 pass
Murillo
D · Nottingham
7.00
· 37 pass
J. Bijol
D · Leeds
7.00
· 41 pass
Nottingham Forest — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Sels | G | 63 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 20 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Murillo | D | 63 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 37 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Milenković | D | 63 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 30 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Jair | D | 63 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 28 | 25% | 2 | 1 | — |
| N. Williams | M | 63 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Sangaré | M | 63 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 24% | — | — | — |
| J. McAtee | M | 63 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 28 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| O. Aina | M | 63 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 15% | — | 1 | — |
| M. Gibbs-White | F | 63 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 20% | — | — | — |
| D. Ndoye | F | 62 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Igor Jesus | F | 63 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 13% | — | — | — |
| C. Wood | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
Leeds — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Trafford | G | 63 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 26 | 17% | — | — | — |
| T. Muharemović | D | 63 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 30 | 27% | — | — | — |
| J. Bijol | D | 63 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 41 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| Joe Rodon | D | 63 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Justin | M | 63 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 10% | 6 | — | — |
| E. Ampadu | M | 63 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 39 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Stach | M | 63 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 25 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Bogle | M | 63 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 11% | — | — | — |
| B. Aaronson | F | 63 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Wilson | F | 63 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Calvert-Lewin | F | 63 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 5% | — | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
The final score was Nottingham Forest 0–1 Leeds.
What did the model predict before Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
The model assigned 33% probability to a Nottingham Forest win, 32% to a draw, and 33% to an Leeds win.