Rory Finneran
(ast. Nicholas Tsaroulla)
90'+1
18'
Mark Harris
88'
(ast. Luka Lynch)
Cameron Brannagan
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Oxford United a 36% win probability (draw 32%, Notts County 31%). The final result was Notts County 1–2 Oxford United.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
13
3
Shots on target
5
0.71
Actual xG
1.25
6
Saves
2
48%
Possession
52%
5
Corners
4
26
Tackles
21
6
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
Rod McDonald
7'
18'
Mark Harris⚽
Oliver Cooper
23'
44'
Louie Sibley
James Gibbons
/ Nicholas Tsaroulla
45'
Oliver Cooper
/ Rory Finneran
45'
Matt Palmer
/ Max Sanders
45'
Max Sanders
47'
Jacob Bedeau
58'
58'
Kai Andrews
/
Louie Sibley
Conor·Grant
/ Luka Smyth
65'
66'
L. Snowden
/
Mo Missanga
66'
Gatlin O Donkor
/
Tyler Goodrham
Rory Finneran
70'
76'
Luka Lynch
/
Siriki Dembele
76'
Brodie Spencer
/
Jack Currie
Lucas Ness
77'
82'
Peter Kioso
87'
Michał Helik
88'
ast. Luka Lynch ·
Cameron Brannagan⚽
⚽Rory Finneran
· ast. Nicholas Tsaroulla
90'+1
Pre-match prediction
31.53%
Notts
32.08%
X
36.39%
Oxford ←
we assigned to the actual result (Oxford United)
36.39%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.90
0.71
-0.19
1.29
1.25
-0.04
Oxford United dominated by xG (1.25 vs 0.71).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
J. Gibbons
G
J. Gibbons
G
4
J. Bedeau
D
J. Bedeau
D
3
R. McDonald
D
R. McDonald
D
12
L. Ness
D
L. Ness
D
26
I. Samuels-Smith
M
I. Samuels-Smith
M
18
M. Palmer
45'
M
M. Palmer
45'
M
8
O. Cooper
45'
M
O. Cooper
45'
M
2
J. Gibbons
M
J. Gibbons
M
11
C. Grant
65'
M
C. Grant
65'
M
7
C. Roberts
M
C. Roberts
M
9
D. Kanu
F
D. Kanu
F
Bench
14
D. Lipsiuc
M
D. Lipsiuc
M
15
J. Evans
M
J. Evans
M
19
L. Smyth
25'
F
L. Smyth
25'
F
6
M. Sanders
45'
M
M. Sanders
45'
M
25
N. Tsaroulla
1 👟
45'
D
N. Tsaroulla
1 👟
45'
D
27
R. Finneran
1 ⚽
45'
M
R. Finneran
1 ⚽
45'
M
10
R. Longelo-Mbule
M
R. Longelo-Mbule
M
1
J. Cumming
G
J. Cumming
G
26
J. Currie
76'
D
J. Currie
76'
D
3
C. Brown
D
C. Brown
D
6
M. Helik
D
M. Helik
D
30
P. Kioso
D
P. Kioso
D
8
C. Brannagan
1 ⚽
M
C. Brannagan
1 ⚽
M
11
T. Goodrham
66'
M
T. Goodrham
66'
M
23
S. Dembélé
76'
M
S. Dembélé
76'
M
32
L. Sibley
58'
M
L. Sibley
58'
M
57
M. Missanga
66'
M
M. Missanga
66'
M
9
M. Harris
1 ⚽
F
M. Harris
1 ⚽
F
Bench
15
B. Spencer
14'
D
B. Spencer
14'
D
19
G. O'Donkor
24'
F
G. O'Donkor
24'
F
4
Kai Andrews
32'
M
Kai Andrews
32'
M
20
L. Lynch
1 👟
14'
F
L. Lynch
1 👟
14'
F
27
L. Snowden
24'
F
L. Snowden
24'
F
13
S. Eastwood
G
S. Eastwood
G
2
S. Long
D
S. Long
D
Best on the pitch
C. Brannagan
M · Oxford
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 67 pass
M. Harris
F · Oxford
7.87
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 17 pass
R. Finneran
M · Notts
7.24
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 22 pass
B. Spencer
D · Oxford
7.03
· 2 pass
L. Lynch
F · Oxford
6.92
1 👟
1 shots
· 3 pass
S. Dembélé
M · Oxford
6.80
1 shots
· 10 pass
Notts County — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Gibbons | G | 90 | 5.89 | — | — | 0 | 30 | 12% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Bedeau | D | 90 | 5.76 | — | — | 1 | 45 | 35% | 1 | 1 | — |
| R. McDonald | D | 90 | 5.70 | — | — | 0 | 48 | 37% | 0 | 1 | — |
| L. Ness | D | 90 | 5.99 | — | — | 0 | 46 | 39% | 3 | 1 | — |
| I. Samuels-Smith | M | 90 | 6.08 | — | — | 0 | 46 | 30% | 9 | — | — |
| M. Palmer | M | 45 | 5.63 | — | — | 0 | 16 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| O. Cooper | M | 45 | 5.84 | — | — | 0 | 12 | 11% | 2 | 1 | — |
| J. Gibbons | M | 90 | 5.89 | — | — | 0 | 30 | 12% | 0 | — | — |
| C. Grant | M | 65 | 5.95 | — | — | 0 | 29 | 21% | 3 | — | — |
| C. Roberts | M | 90 | 6.21 | — | — | 3 | 23 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Kanu | F | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 2% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Smyth | F | 25 | 6.29 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Sanders | M | 45 | 6.41 | — | — | 0 | 30 | 24% | 0 | 1 | — |
| N. Tsaroulla | D | 45 | 6.28 | — | 1 | 1 | 26 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Finneran | M | 45 | 7.24 | 1 | — | 2 | 22 | 19% | 1 | 1 | — |
Oxford United — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Cumming | G | 90 | 6.35 | — | — | 0 | 30 | 18% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Currie | D | 76 | 6.54 | — | — | 0 | 36 | 28% | 3 | — | — |
| C. Brown | D | 90 | 6.65 | — | — | 0 | 46 | 35% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Helik | D | 90 | 6.45 | — | — | 0 | 48 | 39% | 1 | 1 | — |
| P. Kioso | D | 90 | 6.59 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 36% | 3 | 1 | — |
| C. Brannagan | M | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 67 | 58% | 3 | — | — |
| T. Goodrham | M | 66 | 6.44 | — | — | 2 | 23 | 17% | 0 | — | — |
| S. Dembélé | M | 76 | 6.80 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Sibley | M | 58 | 6.40 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 24% | 2 | 1 | — |
| M. Missanga | M | 66 | 6.21 | — | — | 0 | 17 | 14% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Harris | F | 90 | 7.87 | 1 | — | 1 | 17 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| B. Spencer | D | 14 | 7.03 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0% | 3 | — | — |
| G. O'Donkor | F | 24 | 6.11 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 2 | — | — |
| Kai Andrews | M | 32 | 6.57 | — | — | 0 | 17 | 12% | 0 | — | — |
| L. Lynch | F | 14 | 6.92 | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| L. Snowden | F | 24 | 6.19 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Notts County vs Oxford United?
The final score was Notts County 1–2 Oxford United.
What did the model predict before Notts County vs Oxford United?
The model assigned 31% probability to a Notts County win, 32% to a draw, and 36% to an Oxford United win.