Virsliga · Regular Season - 32 October 11, 2026 13:00

Ogre United

#10 · 18 pts

1 – 2

Final score

BFC Daugavpils

#4 · 48 pts

J. Fokam 31'

23' (ast. D. Kivinda) A. Traore

58' A. Traore

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave BFC Daugavpils a 34% win probability (draw 34%, Ogre United 30%). The final result was Ogre United 1–2 BFC Daugavpils. In 3 previous meetings, Ogre United have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 3 wins for BFC Daugavpils.

Match statistics

4

Shots on target

7

1.78

Actual xG

1.55

33%

Possession

67%

2

Corners

5

Match Events

3'

E. Ivanovs

23'

ast. D. Kivinda · A. Traore⚽

⚽J. Fokam

31'

A. Doroshenko

55'

58'

A. Traore⚽

↕ J. Fokam / M. Pacepko

63'

↕ A. Doroshenko / T. Marusiy

63'

66'

Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand / W. Mukwelle ↕

68'

R. Skrebels

↕ I. Pulis / A. Marchuk

74'

↕ A. Kudelkins / R. Ziemelis

85'

85'

D. Ayebadiepreye / D. Kivinda ↕

A. Molotkovs

85'

↕ L. Estevez Fernandez / M. Ivulans

85'

Pre-match prediction

30.47%

Ogre

34.67%

X

34.86%

BFC ←

we assigned to the actual result (BFC Daugavpils) 34.86% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Ogre

0.70

1.78

+1.08

BFC

0.67

1.55

+0.88

xG dominance was balanced (1.78 – 1.55). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Rīgas FS	34	86
2	Riga	34	82
3	Auda	34	67
4	BFC Daugavpils	34	48
5	FK Liepaja	34	47
6	Super Nova	34	38
7	FS Jelgava	34	32
8	Grobiņa	34	29
9	Tukums	34	25
10	Ogre United	34	18