Copa Sudamericana
· Group Stage - 5
May 21, 2026 00:00
M. Gamarra
(ast. H. Quintana)
67'
H. Sandoval
85'
S. Ferreira
(ast. H. Sandoval)
90'+4
45'+4
(ast. N. Moreira)
C. Cuesta
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Olimpia a 53% win probability (draw 21%, Vasco DA Gama 25%). The final result was Olimpia 3–1 Vasco DA Gama. In 3 previous meetings, Olimpia have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 2 wins for Vasco DA Gama.
Match statistics
20
Total shots
5
9
Shots on target
2
2.45
Actual xG
0.46
1
Saves
7
76%
Possession
24%
12
Corners
3
15
Tackles
9
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
A. F. Franco Zayas
45'+2
45'+3
45'+4
ast. N. Moreira ·
C. Cuesta⚽
65'
Tche Tche
F. Cardozo
/ F. Alfonso
66'
A. F. Franco Zayas
/ R. Lezcano
66'
⚽M. Gamarra
· ast. H. Quintana
67'
B. Bentaberry
68'
69'
Walace Fernandes
/
Ramon Rique
69'
Brenner
/
David
69'
Matheus Franca
/
N. Moreira
72'
Joao Vitor
E. Delmas
/ H. Sandoval
78'
78'
JP
/
M. Hinestroza
81'
Hugo Moura
85'
Samuel
/
Riquelme Avellar
⚽H. Sandoval
85'
87'
Leo Jardim
90'+2
Lucas Freitas
A. Alcaraz
/ S. Ferreira
90'+3
⚽S. Ferreira
· ast. H. Sandoval
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
53.05%
Olimpia ←
21.89%
X
25.06%
Vasco
we assigned to the actual result (Olimpia)
53.05%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.07
2.45
+0.38
1.37
0.46
-0.91
Olimpia dominated by xG (2.45 vs 0.46).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Gastón Olveira
G
30
Alan Rodríguez
D
15
Mateo Gamarra
1 ⚽
D
2
B. Bentaberry
D
B. Bentaberry
D
27
Raúl Cáceres
D
28
H. Quintana
1 👟
M
H. Quintana
1 👟
M
5
Juan Fernando Alfaro
M
8
Alex Franco
66'
M
20
Eduardo Delmas
78'
F
17
Adrián Alcaraz
89'
F
Adrián Alcaraz
89'
F
7
Fernando Cardozo
66'
F
Bench
3
Alejandro Silva
M
Alejandro Silva
M
21
Cesar Olmedo
D
Cesar Olmedo
D
35
Franco Alfonso
24'
F
14
Gustavo Vargas
D
9
Hugo Sandoval
1 ⚽
1 👟
12'
F
22
Juan Vera
D
39
L. Abreu
M
L. Abreu
M
23
R. Pérez
M
R. Pérez
M
19
Rubén Lezcano
24'
M
11
Sebastián Ferreira
1 ⚽
3'
F
25
Sebastián Lentinelly
G
24
Tiago Caballero
F
1
Léo Jardim
G
Léo Jardim
G
82
Avellar
85'
D
Avellar
85'
D
43
Lucas Freitas
D
Lucas Freitas
D
46
C. Cuesta
1 ⚽
D
C. Cuesta
1 ⚽
D
60
João Vitor Silva
72'
D
João Vitor Silva
72'
D
83
Ramon Rique
69'
M
Ramon Rique
69'
M
25
Hugo Moura
M
Hugo Moura
M
3
Tchê Tchê
M
Tchê Tchê
M
17
Nuno Moreira
1 👟
69'
F
Nuno Moreira
1 👟
69'
F
7
David
69'
F
David
69'
F
18
M. Hinestroza
78'
F
M. Hinestroza
78'
F
Bench
54
Alison De Nardi Araujo
D
Alison De Nardi Araujo
D
74
Andrey
F
Andrey
F
20
Brenner
21'
F
Brenner
21'
F
80
Bruno Andre
D
Bruno Andre
D
72
Bruno Lopes
F
Bruno Lopes
F
13
Daniel Fuzato
G
Daniel Fuzato
G
50
Gustavo Guimarães Soares
M
Gustavo Guimarães Soares
M
98
JP
12'
M
JP
12'
M
86
Lukas Zuccarello
M
Lukas Zuccarello
M
9
Matheus França
21'
F
Matheus França
21'
F
67
Samuel Jesus
11'
M
64
Walace
21'
D
Walace
21'
D
Best on the pitch
Mateo Gamarra
D · Olimpia
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 86 pass
Hugo Sandoval
F · Olimpia
8.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 6 pass
H. Quintana
M · Olimpia
8.00
1 👟
1 shots
· 81 pass
B. Bentaberry
D · Olimpia
7.70
2 shots
· 88 pass
Sebastián Ferreira
F · Olimpia
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
Juan Fernando Alfaro
M · Olimpia
7.30
1 shots
· 84 pass
Olimpia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gastón Olveira | G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 28 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Alan Rodríguez | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 49 | 44% | 3 | — | — |
| Mateo Gamarra | D | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 86 | 74% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Bentaberry | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | 2 | 88 | 80% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Raúl Cáceres | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 51 | 49% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Quintana | M | 90 | 8.00 | — | 1 | 1 | 81 | 68% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Fernando Alfaro | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 84 | 77% | 1 | — | — |
| Alex Franco | M | 66 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 33 | 27% | — | 1 | — |
| Eduardo Delmas | F | 78 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 17 | 13% | 4 | — | — |
| Adrián Alcaraz | F | 89 | 6.20 | — | — | 5 | 20 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Fernando Cardozo | F | 66 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| Franco Alfonso | F | 24 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Hugo Sandoval | F | 12 | 8.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Rubén Lezcano | M | 24 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Sebastián Ferreira | F | 3 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Vasco DA Gama — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo Jardim | G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 27 | 4% | — | 1 | — |
| Avellar | D | 85 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Freitas | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | 2 | 1 | — |
| C. Cuesta | D | 90 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 12 | 5% | — | — | — |
| João Vitor Silva | D | 72 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 11 | 7% | 2 | — | 1 |
| Ramon Rique | M | 69 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 18 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Hugo Moura | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 18 | 12% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Tchê Tchê | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | — | 1 | — |
| Nuno Moreira | F | 69 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 1 | 25 | 18% | — | — | — |
| David | F | 69 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 12% | — | — | — |
| M. Hinestroza | F | 78 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| Brenner | F | 21 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| JP | M | 12 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Matheus França | F | 21 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Samuel Jesus | M | 11 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Walace | D | 21 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Olimpia vs Vasco DA Gama?
The final score was Olimpia 3–1 Vasco DA Gama.
What did the model predict before Olimpia vs Vasco DA Gama?
The model assigned 53% probability to a Olimpia win, 21% to a draw, and 25% to an Vasco DA Gama win.