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Oliveirense - Penafiel

Taça de Portugal September 20, 2026 16:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
40.27%
Win
Oliveirense
27.93%
Draw
31.8%
Win
Penafiel
2.89
Expected xG
2.1

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (9.74%)
1X2 Result
1 40%
X 28%
2 32%
Double Chance
1X 68%
X2 60%
12 72%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 63%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Oliveirense a 40% win probability, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Penafiel. Expected goals are 2.9 for Oliveirense and 2.1 for Penafiel (total 5.0), with a 79% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 9.74% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Oliveirense have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Penafiel.

Season Stats

Oliveirense
2W 1D 0L
Penafiel
0W 1D 0L
Averages per game
2.7
Goals
1.0
0.7
Conceded
1.0
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
100%
67%
O 2.5
0%
67%
BTTS
100%
33%
Clean Sht
0%
Based on the last 3 matches in Taça de Portugal. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Score Matrix

↕ Oliveirense Penafiel →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.7% 1.4% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%
1 2.0% 4.1% 4.3% 3.0% 1.6% 0.7%
2 2.8% 6.0% 6.3% 4.4% 2.3% 1.0%
3 2.7% 5.7% 6.0% 4.2% 2.2% 0.9%
4 2.0% 4.2% 4.4% 3.1% 1.6% 0.7%
5 1.1% 2.4% 2.5% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4%

Recent form

W Penalva Castelo 4–0
D Torreense 1–1
W Monção 1–3
Home clean sheet (120 days) 36%
D Portimonense B 1–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 33%

Playing profile

Oliveirense Oliveirense
Attack
41
Defence
66
Form
57
Penafiel Penafiel
Attack
35
Defence
65
Form
57
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Oliveirense vs Penafiel?
The model gives Oliveirense a 40% win probability, 27% for a draw, and 31% for an Penafiel win.
How many goals are expected in Oliveirense vs Penafiel?
Expected goals: Oliveirense 2.9, Penafiel 2.1 (total 5.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 79%.
What is the most likely score in Oliveirense vs Penafiel?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.74%.