Once Caldas - Alianza Valledupar
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· Manizales
⚡ Pre-match analysis
70.7%
Win
Once Caldas
18.04%
Draw
11.26%
Win
Alianza Valledupar
2.11
0.61
Expected xG
Most likely outcome
Once Caldas
70.7%
Probability
53.7%
1X2 accuracy · 41 predictions (3 months)
Market probabilities
Most likely result
2–0
(14.66%)
1X2 Result
1
71%
X
18%
2
11%
Double Chance
1X
89%
X2
29%
12
82%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
48%
✓ 58.6% hit rate (29 picks)
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Once Caldas a 70% win probability, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Alianza Valledupar. Expected goals are 2.1 for Once Caldas and 0.6 for Alianza Valledupar (total 2.7), with a 74% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–0 at 14.66% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Once Caldas have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Alianza Valledupar.
Season Stats
4W
5D
6L
3W
4D
8L
Averages per game
1.3
Goals
1.0
1.3
Conceded
1.8
6.2
Shots OT
2.9
5.2
Corners
3.9
52%
Poss.
44%
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
67%
47%
O 2.5
60%
60%
BTTS
60%
13%
Clean Sht
20%
ℹ
Based on the last 15 matches in Liga BetPlay. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
20%
O 3.5
55%
BTTS
4W
1D
5L
· at home
2W
3D
5L
· away
1.3
gls/g
0.8
1.4
Conceded
1.5
40%
Win %
20%
50%
Win or Draw
50%
60%
O 1.5
70%
50%
O 2.5
50%
30%
O 3.5
10%
60%
BTTS
50%
20%
Clean Sht
10%
20%
Failed to Score
50%
last 10
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Once Caldas
Alianza Valledupar →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | — | — |
| 1 | 13.9% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — |
| 2 | 14.6% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — |
| 3 | 10.3% | 6.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — |
| 4 | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 5 | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Once Caldas
Attack
42
Defence
63
Form
44
Alianza Valledupar
Attack
28
Defence
51
Form
38
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
1
Draw
0
8 Feb 2026
1–1
Apertura
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Atletico Nacional
|
19 | 40 |
| 2 |
Junior
|
19 | 35 |
| 3 |
Deportivo Pasto
|
19 | 34 |
| 4 |
America de Cali
|
19 | 33 |
| 5 |
Once Caldas
|
19 | 33 |
| 6 |
Deportes Tolima
|
19 | 31 |
| 7 |
Santa Fe
|
19 | 29 |
| 8 |
Internacional de Bogota
|
19 | 28 |
| 9 |
Deportivo Cali
|
19 | 27 |
| 10 |
Millonarios
|
19 | 26 |
| 11 |
Independiente Medellin
|
19 | 26 |
| 12 |
Águilas Doradas
|
19 | 26 |
| 13 |
Bucaramanga
|
19 | 23 |
| 14 |
Llaneros
|
19 | 22 |
| 15 |
Fortaleza FC
|
19 | 22 |
| 16 |
Jaguares
|
19 | 18 |
| 17 |
Alianza Valledupar
|
19 | 17 |
| 18 |
Chico
|
19 | 17 |
| 19 |
Cucuta
|
19 | 16 |
| 20 |
Deportivo Pereira
|
19 | 10 |
What's at stake · Apertura
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #5 | #17 |
| → Once Caldas | #2 | #17 |
| → Draw | #3 | #17 |
| → Alianza Valledupar | #5 | #16 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar?
The model gives Once Caldas a 70% win probability, 18% for a draw, and 11% for an Alianza Valledupar win.
How many goals are expected in Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar?
Expected goals: Once Caldas 2.1, Alianza Valledupar 0.6 (total 2.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 74%.
What is the most likely score in Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar?
2–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.66%.