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Liga BetPlay · Apertura - 19 May 02, 2026 01:00 Estadio Palogrande, Manizales
Once Caldas
#5 · 33 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Atletico Nacional
#1 · 40 pts
L. Sanchez (ast. J. A. Zapata Ramirez) 46'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Once Caldas a 38% win probability (draw 26%, Atletico Nacional 35%). The final result was Once Caldas 1–0 Atletico Nacional.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
10
8
Shots on target
5
1.43
Actual xG
1.47
4
Saves
7
45%
Possession
55%
9
Corners
4
6
Tackles
5
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
J. Castano
36'
⚽L. Sanchez · ast. J. A. Zapata Ramirez
46'
46'
N. Rodriguez / D. Asprilla ↕
52'
A. Morelos
L. Sanchez
58'
67'
E. Cardona / A. Sarmiento ↕
67'
J. Zapata / M. Uribe ↕
75'
M. Moreno / E. Bello ↕
↕ D. Moreno / H. Guzman
75'
↕ A. Roa / J. Quinones
75'
↕ L. Sanchez / J. Beltran
83'
↕ P. Gomez / J. Alvarado
84'
J. A. Zapata Ramirez
86'
↕ J. A. Zapata Ramirez / J. Cardona
90'+3
90'
J. Zapata
Pre-match prediction
38.56%
Once ←
26.43%
X
35.01%
Atletico
we assigned to the actual result (Once Caldas) 38.56% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Once
1.19
1.43
+0.24
Atletico
1.22
1.47
+0.25
xG dominance was balanced (1.43 – 1.47). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 19 40
2 Junior Junior 19 35
3 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 19 34
4 America de Cali America de Cali 19 33
5 Once Caldas Once Caldas 19 33
6 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 19 31
7 Santa Fe Santa Fe 19 29
8 Internacional de Bogota Internacional de Bogota 19 28
9 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali 19 27
10 Millonarios Millonarios 19 26
11 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 19 26
12 Águilas Doradas Águilas Doradas 19 26
13 Bucaramanga Bucaramanga 19 23
14 Llaneros Llaneros 19 22
15 Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC 19 22
16 Jaguares Jaguares 19 18
17 Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar 19 17
18 Chico Chico 19 17
19 Cucuta Cucuta 19 16
20 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira 19 10
Lineups
Once Caldas Once Caldas 4-2-3-1
99
G 8.20
33 J. Patiño J. Patiño D 7.50
18
D 7.00
16 J. Castaño J. Castaño D 7.20
22 J. Cuesta J. Cuesta D 6.90
88 Robert Mejía Robert Mejía M 7.90
20 A. Roa A. Roa 74' M 7.20
9 Pipe Gómez Pipe Gómez 84' M 6.30
10 L. Sánchez L. Sánchez 1 ⚽ 83' M 7.90
14 J. Zapata J. Zapata 1 👟 89' M 7.90
17 D. Moreno D. Moreno 75' F 6.60
Bench
21 H. Guzman H. Guzman 15' F 6.70
15 J. Alvarado J. Alvarado 10' M 6.60
2 J. Cardona J. Cardona 1' D
42 J. Quiñónes J. Quiñónes 16' M 6.30
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 4-2-3-1
15
G 9.50
20
D 6.70
16 William Tesillo William Tesillo D 6.90
28 Simon Garcia Simon Garcia D 6.70
6 A. Román A. Román D 6.20
8 Matheus Uribe Matheus Uribe 67' M 6.30
21 J. Campuzano J. Campuzano M 7.20
29 A. Sarmiento A. Sarmiento 67' M 6.30
9 A. Morelos A. Morelos M 6.90
18 E. Bello E. Bello 74' M 6.90
27 D. Asprilla D. Asprilla 45' F 6.50
Bench
4 César Haydar César Haydar D
10 E. Cardona E. Cardona 23' M 6.60
80 Juan Zapata Juan Zapata 23' M 6.60
7 M. Moreno M. Moreno 16' F 6.20
Best on the pitch
G · Atletico
9.50
· 33 pass
G · Once
8.20
· 27 pass
Robert Mejía
Robert Mejía
M · Once
7.90
· 48 pass
L. Sánchez
L. Sánchez
M · Once
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots · 30 pass
J. Zapata
J. Zapata
M · Once
7.90
1 👟
3 shots · 21 pass
J. Patiño
J. Patiño
D · Once
7.50
2 shots · 33 pass
Once Caldas Once Caldas — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 8.20 — — — 27 18% — — —
J. Patiño D 90 7.50 — — 2 33 27% — — —
D 90 7.00 — — — 22 19% 2 — —
J. Castaño D 90 7.20 — — — 31 25% — 1 —
J. Cuesta D 90 6.90 — — 2 23 20% — — —
Robert Mejía M 90 7.90 — — — 48 45% 1 — —
A. Roa M 74 7.20 — — — 38 37% — — —
Pipe Gómez M 84 6.30 — — 3 36 30% — — —
L. Sánchez M 83 7.90 1 — 3 30 30% 1 1 —
J. Zapata M 89 7.90 — 1 3 21 18% 2 1 —
D. Moreno F 75 6.60 — — 1 14 13% — — —
H. Guzman F 15 6.70 — — 1 4 4% — — —
J. Alvarado M 10 6.60 — — — 5 4% — — —
J. Cardona D 1 — — — — — — — — —
J. Quiñónes M 16 6.30 — — — — — — — —
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 9.50 — — — 33 30% — — —
D 90 6.70 — — 1 30 26% — — —
William Tesillo D 90 6.90 — — — 49 39% 1 — —
Simon Garcia D 90 6.70 — — 1 61 58% — — —
A. Román D 90 6.20 — — 3 26 23% 2 — —
Matheus Uribe M 67 6.30 — — — 28 24% 1 — —
J. Campuzano M 90 7.20 — — — 60 58% — — —
A. Sarmiento M 67 6.30 — — 2 10 6% — — —
A. Morelos M 90 6.90 — — 2 32 25% — 1 —
E. Bello M 74 6.90 — — — 23 22% — — —
D. Asprilla F 45 6.50 — — 1 9 7% — — —
E. Cardona M 23 6.60 — — — 19 17% 1 — —
Juan Zapata M 23 6.60 — — — 22 18% — 1 —
M. Moreno F 16 6.20 — — — 5 4% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?
The final score was Once Caldas 1–0 Atletico Nacional.
What did the model predict before Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?
The model assigned 38% probability to a Once Caldas win, 26% to a draw, and 35% to an Atletico Nacional win.