USL Championship
· Group Stage
August 16, 2026 04:00
O. Sylla
70'
Y. Bazini
81'
(pen.)
6'
(ast. T. Showunmi)
R. Serrano
48'
(ast. Q. Huerman)
R. Serrano
68'
(ast. Q. Huerman)
C. Donovan
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Orange County SC a 49% win probability (draw 21%, Louisville City 29%). The final result was Orange County SC 2–3 Louisville City.
Match statistics
Match Events
6'
ast. T. Showunmi ·
R. Serrano⚽
45'+1
Z. Duncan
46'
T. Davila
/
Z. Duncan
E. Solis
/ M. Palomino
46'
48'
ast. Q. Huerman ·
R. Serrano⚽
64'
C. Donovan
/
T. Showunmi
64'
S. Totsch
/
J. Morris
68'
ast. Q. Huerman ·
C. Donovan⚽
C. Hegardt
/ E. Zubak
68'
⚽O. Sylla
70'
71'
J. Wilson
/
R. Serrano
79'
E. Perez
/
S. Gleadle
⚽Y. Bazini
(pen.)
81'
S. Kelly
/ N. Ciotta
81'
B. Cambridge
/ M. Bunbury
81'
R. Doghman
/ J. Castro
90'
Pre-match prediction
49.59%
Orange
21.17%
X
29.24%
Louisville ←
we assigned to the actual result (Louisville City)
29.24%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.99
—
—
1.41
—
—
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Orange County SC vs Louisville City?
The final score was Orange County SC 2–3 Louisville City.
What did the model predict before Orange County SC vs Louisville City?
The model assigned 49% probability to a Orange County SC win, 21% to a draw, and 29% to an Louisville City win.