Orlando City SC 3–2 Columbus Crew — pre-match prediction — MLS — October 11, 2026

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MLS · Regular Season - 28 October 11, 2026 01:30 Inter&Co Stadium, Orlando, Florida

Orlando City SC

#7 · 42 pts

3 – 2

Final score

Columbus Crew

#10 · 38 pts

Harvey Graham Sarajian (ast. Antoine Griezmann) 1'

Antoine Griezmann 16'

Iván Angulo (ast. Martin Ojeda) 89'

7' (ast. Santiago Rodriguez) Taha Habroune

53' (ast. Taha Habroune) Brais Méndez

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Orlando City SC a 53% win probability (draw 18%, Columbus Crew 27%). The final result was Orlando City SC 3–2 Columbus Crew. In 2 previous meetings, Orlando City SC have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Columbus Crew.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.80

Actual xG

3.13

Saves

47%

Possession

53%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽Harvey Graham Sarajian · ast. Antoine Griezmann

Vinicius Nogueira

ast. Santiago Rodriguez · Taha Habroune⚽

⚽Antoine Griezmann

16'

21'

Taha Habroune

Robin Jansson

23'

36'

Brais Méndez

David Brekalo

41'

↕ Harvey Graham Sarajian / Bernardo Rhein

45'

↕ Vinicius Nogueira / Zakaria Taifi

52'

53'

ast. Taha Habroune · Brais Méndez⚽

Marco Pašalić

59'

↕ Eduard Atuesta / Luis Otávio Costa de Aquino

62'

↕ Marco Pašalić / Daryl Dike

62'

70'

Gonzalo Tapia / Josef Martínez ↕

70'

André Gomes / Dylan Chambost ↕

↕ David Brekalo / Justin Ellis

83'

Brooks Lennon / Anass Zaroury ↕

83'

Sekou Tidiany Bangoura / Taha Habroune ↕

⚽Iván Angulo · ast. Martin Ojeda

89'

90'

Marcelo Andrés Herrera / Mohamed Farsi ↕

Pre-match prediction

53.91%

Orlando ←

18.92%

27.17%

Columbus

we assigned to the actual result (Orlando City SC) 53.91% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Orlando

2.48

1.80

-0.68

Columbus

1.74

3.13

+1.39

Columbus Crew dominated by xG (3.13 vs 1.80). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Nashville SC	31	70
2	New England Revolution	31	55
3	Inter Miami	31	55
4	Chicago Fire	31	51
5	Charlotte	31	47
6	Philadelphia Union	31	46
7	Orlando City SC	31	42
8	FC Cincinnati	31	42
9	New York Red Bulls	31	39
10	Columbus Crew	31	38
11	Toronto FC	31	36
12	New York City FC	31	35
13	DC United	31	33
14	Atlanta United FC	31	30
15	CF Montreal	31	25

Lineups

Orlando City SC 4-4-2

M. Crépeau G 8.20

Vinícius Nogueira 52' D 5.74

R. Jansson D 6.12

D. Brekalo 83' D 6.20

I. Angulo 1 ⚽ D 7.77

Harvey Sarajian 1 ⚽ 45' M 7.40

W. Cartagena M 6.64

E. Atuesta 62' M 5.60

Marco Pasalic 62' M 6.44

A. Griezmann 1 ⚽ 1 👟 F 9.00

M. Ojeda 1 👟 F 7.60

Bench

Bernardo Rhein Goncalves 45' F 6.46

D. Dike 28' F 6.73

Iago D 0.00

Javier Otero G 0.00

Joran Gerbet M 0.00

Justin Ellis 7' F 6.59

Luis Otávio 28' M 6.05

Tiago F 0.00

Z. Taifi 38' M 5.95

Columbus Crew 4-4-2

P. Schulte G 6.70

M. Amundsen D 6.43

S. Zawadzki D 6.51

S. Moreira D 6.76

M. Farsi 89' D 6.51

S. Rodríguez 1 👟 M 7.70

T. Habroune 1 ⚽ 1 👟 83' M 8.92

D. Chambost 70' M 6.37

A. Zaroury 83' M 6.69

Josef Martínez 70' F 6.22

Brais Méndez 1 ⚽ F 8.20

Bench

André Gomes 20' M 5.92

B. Lennon 7' D 5.89

E. Bailly D 0.00

G. Tapia 20' F 6.59

L. Giaccone M 0.00

M. Herrera 1' D 0.00

N. Hagen G 0.00

R. Camacho D 0.00

S. Bangoura 7' M 5.79

Best on the pitch

A. Griezmann

F · Orlando

9.00

1 ⚽ 1 👟

3 shots · 39 pass

T. Habroune

M · Columbus

8.92

1 ⚽ 1 👟

1 shots · 43 pass

M. Crépeau

G · Orlando

8.20

· 27 pass

Brais Méndez

F · Columbus

8.20

1 ⚽

6 shots · 38 pass

I. Angulo

D · Orlando

7.77

1 ⚽

1 shots · 40 pass

S. Rodríguez

M · Columbus

7.70

1 👟

6 shots · 31 pass

Orlando City SC — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
M. Crépeau	G	90	8.20	—	—	0	27	17%	0	—	—
Vinícius Nogueira	D	52	5.74	—	—	0	21	19%	2	1	—
R. Jansson	D	90	6.12	—	—	0	39	33%	1	1	—
D. Brekalo	D	83	6.20	—	—	0	43	38%	1	1	—
I. Angulo	D	90	7.77	1	—	1	40	35%	2	—	—
Harvey Sarajian	M	45	7.40	1	—	4	13	10%	0	—	—
W. Cartagena	M	90	6.64	—	—	0	53	48%	4	—	—
E. Atuesta	M	62	5.60	—	—	0	18	17%	1	—	—
Marco Pasalic	M	62	6.44	—	—	2	19	15%	1	1	—
A. Griezmann	F	90	9.00	1	1	3	39	33%	1	—	—
M. Ojeda	F	90	7.60	—	1	5	35	32%	1	—	—
Bernardo Rhein Goncalves	F	45	6.46	—	—	1	16	14%	0	—	—
D. Dike	F	28	6.73	—	—	1	8	7%	0	—	—
Justin Ellis	F	7	6.59	—	—	2	5	3%	0	—	—
Luis Otávio	M	28	6.05	—	—	0	18	16%	1	—	—
Z. Taifi	M	38	5.95	—	—	1	9	8%	1	—	—

Columbus Crew — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
P. Schulte	G	90	6.70	—	—	0	28	22%	0	—	—
M. Amundsen	D	90	6.43	—	—	0	39	35%	1	—	—
S. Zawadzki	D	90	6.51	—	—	1	51	47%	1	—	—
S. Moreira	D	90	6.76	—	—	0	49	43%	0	—	—
M. Farsi	D	89	6.51	—	—	0	43	41%	1	—	—
S. Rodríguez	M	90	7.70	—	1	6	31	28%	1	—	—
T. Habroune	M	83	8.92	1	1	1	43	38%	1	1	—
D. Chambost	M	70	6.37	—	—	2	47	44%	2	—	—
A. Zaroury	M	83	6.69	—	—	4	29	25%	0	—	—
Josef Martínez	F	70	6.22	—	—	3	8	7%	0	—	—
Brais Méndez	F	90	8.20	1	—	6	38	36%	2	1	—
André Gomes	M	20	5.92	—	—	1	15	15%	0	—	—
B. Lennon	D	7	5.89	—	—	0	4	4%	0	—	—
G. Tapia	F	20	6.59	—	—	3	6	6%	0	—	—
M. Herrera	D	1	0.00	—	—	0	1	0%	0	—	—
S. Bangoura	M	7	5.79	—	—	0	7	6%	0	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew?

The final score was Orlando City SC 3–2 Columbus Crew.

What did the model predict before Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew?

The model assigned 53% probability to a Orlando City SC win, 18% to a draw, and 27% to an Columbus Crew win.