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MLS · Regular Season - 13 May 14, 2026 01:30 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Orlando City SC
#6 · 31 pts
4 – 3
Final score
Philadelphia Union
#8 · 30 pts
M. Ojeda 19' (pen.)
G. Dorsey 27'
D. McGuire (ast. T. Spicer) 72'
M. Ojeda (ast. A. Gomez) 90'
54' (ast. N. Harriel) M. Iloski
75' (ast. B. Damiani) C. Sullivan
79' (ast. S. Korzeniowski) B. Bender
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Orlando City SC a 39% win probability (draw 27%, Philadelphia Union 33%). The final result was Orlando City SC 4–3 Philadelphia Union.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
20
6
Shots on target
7
2.87
Actual xG
1.62
4
Saves
2
55%
Possession
45%
2
Corners
10
20
Tackles
18
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
17'
A. Rick
⚽M. Ojeda (pen.)
19'
⚽G. Dorsey
27'
43'
C. Sullivan / J. Lukic ↕
Tiago
51'
54'
ast. N. Harriel · M. Iloski⚽
58'
D. Jean Jacques
60'
J. Rafanello
↕ E. Atuesta / Luis Otavio
63'
↕ Tiago / T. Spicer
64'
↕ D. Brekalo / A. Gomez
64'
65'
A. Anello / I. Vassilev ↕
↕ J. Ellis / D. McGuire
70'
⚽D. McGuire · ast. T. Spicer
72'
75'
ast. B. Damiani · C. Sullivan⚽
75'
E. Alladoh / M. Iloski ↕
75'
S. Korzeniowski / B. Damiani ↕
79'
ast. S. Korzeniowski · B. Bender⚽
↕ G. Dorsey / M. Pasalic
81'
⚽M. Ojeda · ast. A. Gomez
90'
Pre-match prediction
39.58%
Orlando ←
27.04%
X
33.38%
Philadelphia
we assigned to the actual result (Orlando City SC) 39.58% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Orlando
1.59
2.87
+1.28
Philadelphia
1.33
1.62
+0.29
Orlando City SC dominated by xG (2.87 vs 1.62). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Nashville SC Nashville SC 24 53
2 Inter Miami Inter Miami 24 44
3 New England Revolution New England Revolution 24 40
4 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 23 39
5 Charlotte Charlotte 24 39
6 Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 24 31
7 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 23 31
8 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 24 30
9 New York City FC New York City FC 24 29
10 Toronto FC Toronto FC 24 29
11 DC United DC United 23 28
12 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 24 27
13 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 24 23
14 Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 24 22
15 CF Montreal CF Montreal 24 21
Lineups
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 3-4-3
71 M. Crépeau M. Crépeau G 6.60
4 D. Brekalo D. Brekalo 64' D 6.60
6 R. Jansson R. Jansson D 6.60
57 Iago Iago D 6.30
77 I. Angulo I. Angulo M 7.70
20 E. Atuesta E. Atuesta 63' M 7.20
8 Braian Ojeda Braian Ojeda M 7.30
24 G. Dorsey G. Dorsey 1 ⚽ 81' M 7.90
11 Tiago Tiago 64' F 6.20
10 M. Ojeda M. Ojeda 2 ⚽ F 8.50
22 Justin Ellis Justin Ellis 70' F 7.50
Bench
3 Adrián Marín Adrián Marín 35' D 6.70
13 D. McGuire D. McGuire 1 ⚽ 29' F 7.50
12 Javier Otero Javier Otero G
5 Luis Otávio Luis Otávio 36' M 6.30
87 Marco Pasalic Marco Pasalic 18' F 6.60
29 Tahir Reid-Brown Tahir Reid-Brown D
14 T. Spicer T. Spicer 1 👟 35' F 7.30
16 W. Cartagena W. Cartagena M
19 Z. Taifi Z. Taifi M
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
76 A. Rick A. Rick G 4.90
16 B. Bender B. Bender 1 ⚽ D 7.30
29 O. Makhanya O. Makhanya D 5.90
2 Geiner Martínez Geiner Martínez D 6.50
26 N. Harriel N. Harriel 1 👟 D 7.20
19 I. Vassilev I. Vassilev 65' M 5.90
14 J. Rafanello J. Rafanello M 6.90
4 J. Lukić J. Lukić 43' M 6.20
21 D. Jean-Jacques D. Jean-Jacques M 6.30
9 B. Damiani B. Damiani 1 👟 75' F 5.90
10 M. Iloski M. Iloski 1 ⚽ 75' F 7.60
Bench
28 A. Anello A. Anello 34' F 6.30
11 A. Bedoya A. Bedoya M
6 Cavan Sullivan Cavan Sullivan 1 ⚽ 56' M 7.70
23 E. Alladoh E. Alladoh 24' F 6.70
66 Finn Sundstrom Finn Sundstrom D
31 George Marks George Marks G
15 Olivier Mbaizo Olivier Mbaizo D
20 Philippe Ndinga Philippe Ndinga D
37 Stas Kornzeniowski Stas Kornzeniowski 1 👟 24' F 6.60
Best on the pitch
M. Ojeda
M. Ojeda
F · Orlando
8.50
2 ⚽
5 shots · 32 pass
G. Dorsey
G. Dorsey
M · Orlando
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 24 pass
Cavan Sullivan
Cavan Sullivan
M · Philadelphia
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots · 20 pass
I. Angulo
I. Angulo
M · Orlando
7.70
1 shots · 31 pass
M. Iloski
M. Iloski
F · Philadelphia
7.60
1 ⚽
5 shots · 32 pass
Justin Ellis
Justin Ellis
F · Orlando
7.50
1 shots · 31 pass
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Crépeau G 99 6.60 — — — 22 17% — — —
D. Brekalo D 64 6.60 — — — 45 41% 1 — —
R. Jansson D 99 6.60 — — — 88 82% — — —
Iago D 99 6.30 — — — 82 78% — — —
I. Angulo M 99 7.70 — — 1 31 27% 2 — —
E. Atuesta M 63 7.20 — — — 44 36% 2 — —
Braian Ojeda M 99 7.30 — — — 41 37% 4 — —
G. Dorsey M 81 7.90 1 — 2 24 22% 2 — —
Tiago F 64 6.20 — — — 12 7% 1 1 —
M. Ojeda F 99 8.50 2 — 5 32 20% 2 — —
Justin Ellis F 70 7.50 — — 1 31 22% 3 — —
Adrián Marín D 35 6.70 — — — 16 11% — — —
D. McGuire F 29 7.50 1 — 1 6 4% — — —
Luis Otávio M 36 6.30 — — — 15 10% 2 — —
Marco Pasalic F 18 6.60 — — — 2 2% — — —
T. Spicer F 35 7.30 — 1 1 6 4% 1 — —
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
A. Rick G 99 4.90 — — — 21 15% — 1 —
B. Bender D 99 7.30 1 — 1 48 36% 2 — —
O. Makhanya D 99 5.90 — — 1 43 38% 4 — —
Geiner Martínez D 99 6.50 — — 2 28 25% 4 — —
N. Harriel D 99 7.20 — 1 2 37 32% 3 — —
I. Vassilev M 65 5.90 — — — 26 23% 1 — —
J. Rafanello M 99 6.90 — — 1 55 47% 2 1 —
J. Lukić M 43 6.20 — — — 17 14% — — —
D. Jean-Jacques M 99 6.30 — — 2 49 45% — 1 —
B. Damiani F 75 5.90 — 1 1 8 5% 1 — —
M. Iloski F 75 7.60 1 — 5 32 25% — — —
A. Anello F 34 6.30 — — — 3 2% — — —
Cavan Sullivan M 56 7.70 1 — 3 20 13% — — —
E. Alladoh F 24 6.70 — — — 2 2% 1 — —
Stas Kornzeniowski F 24 6.60 — 1 2 6 4% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Orlando City SC vs Philadelphia Union?
The final score was Orlando City SC 4–3 Philadelphia Union.
What did the model predict before Orlando City SC vs Philadelphia Union?
The model assigned 39% probability to a Orlando City SC win, 27% to a draw, and 33% to an Philadelphia Union win.