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Orlando City SC - Toronto FC

MLS September 13, 2026 01:30 Unilever Stadium Shintomi, Shintomi
Orlando City SC
#6 · 31 pts
vs
Toronto FC
#10 · 29 pts
Weather at kick-off ☁️ Overcast 24.4°C 💨 1 km/h · Shintomi
⚡ Pre-match analysis
58.78%
Win
Orlando City SC
19.64%
Draw
21.58%
Win
Toronto FC
2.18
Expected xG
1.2

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (9.72%)
1X2 Result
1 59%
X 20%
2 22%
Double Chance ✓ 88.6% hit rate (35 picks)
1X 78%
X2 41%
12 80%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 65%
✓ 74.1% hit rate (85 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Orlando City SC a 58% win probability, against 19% for a draw and 21% for Toronto FC. Expected goals are 2.2 for Orlando City SC and 1.2 for Toronto FC (total 3.4), with a 82% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 9.72% probability.

Season Stats

Orlando City SC
7W 3D 5L
Toronto FC
3W 7D 5L
Averages per game
2.1
Goals
1.5
2.0
Conceded
1.7
5.3
Shots OT
4.1
4.4
Corners
4.5
52%
Poss.
45%
Percentages
87%
O 1.5
87%
67%
O 2.5
67%
73%
BTTS
87%
20%
Clean Sht
13%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in MLS. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
20%
O 3.5
65%
BTTS
Orlando City SC
6W 2D 2L · at home
Toronto FC
2W 3D 5L · away
1.7
gls/g
0.9
1.1
Conceded
1.5
60%
Win %
20%
80%
Win or Draw
50%
70%
O 1.5
70%
50%
O 2.5
60%
20%
O 3.5
20%
70%
BTTS
60%
20%
Clean Sht
30%
10%
Failed to Score
30%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Orlando City SC Toronto FC →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.4% 4.1% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
1 7.4% 8.9% 5.3% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2%
2 8.1% 9.7% 5.8% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
3 5.9% 7.1% 4.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
4 3.2% 3.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
5 1.4% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% —

Recent form

Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
W Atlanta United FC 2–3
W San Diego 1–0
D Minnesota United FC 3–3
W Real Salt Lake 2–1
L Chicago Fire 1–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 24%
Toronto FC Toronto FC
W Nashville SC 2–1
D Chicago Fire 4–4
D New York City FC 1–1
W Inter Miami 1–2
D Charlotte 3–3
Away clean sheet (120 days) 28%

Playing profile

Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
Attack
48
Defence
60
Form
58
Toronto FC Toronto FC
Attack
48
Defence
49
Form
54
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Eastern Conference

# Team G Pts
1 Nashville SC Nashville SC 24 53
2 Inter Miami Inter Miami 24 44
3 New England Revolution New England Revolution 24 40
4 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 23 39
5 Charlotte Charlotte 24 39
6 Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 24 31
7 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 23 31
8 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 24 30
9 New York City FC New York City FC 24 29
10 Toronto FC Toronto FC 24 29
11 DC United DC United 23 28
12 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 24 27
13 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 24 23
14 Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 24 22
15 CF Montreal CF Montreal 24 21

What's at stake · Eastern Conference

Top 2 advance to the next round

Orlando City SC Toronto FC
Current #6 #10
→ Orlando City SC #6 #10
→ Draw #6 #9
→ Toronto FC #8 #6

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC?
The model gives Orlando City SC a 58% win probability, 19% for a draw, and 21% for an Toronto FC win.
How many goals are expected in Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC?
Expected goals: Orlando City SC 2.2, Toronto FC 1.2 (total 3.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 82%.
What is the most likely score in Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.72%.