CF Pachuca 3–3 Necaxa — pre-match prediction — Liga MX — October 12, 2026

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Liga MX · Apertura - 11 October 12, 2026 01:10 Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto

CF Pachuca

#13 · 16 pts

3 – 3

Final score

Necaxa

#17 · 10 pts

Eduardo Dos Santos (ast. Oussama Idrissi) 45'+8

Salomón Rondón (ast. Rodolfo Pizarro) 84'

Salomón Rondón (ast. Rodolfo Pizarro) 87'

15' Matias Espindola

41' (ast. Matias Espindola) Julián Carranza

(pen.) 79' Juan Valencia

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave CF Pachuca a 49% win probability (draw 24%, Necaxa 25%). The final result was CF Pachuca 3–3 Necaxa. In 2 previous meetings, CF Pachuca have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Necaxa.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.15

Actual xG

3.25

Saves

61%

Possession

39%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

15'

Matias Espindola⚽

37'

41'

ast. Matias Espindola · Julián Carranza⚽

45'+7

Miguel Rodriguez

⚽Eduardo Dos Santos · ast. Oussama Idrissi

45'+8

↕ Ian Josué Zavala Osorio / Javier Vallejo

45'

↕ Sergio Rodríguez / Adrián Alcaraz

45'

52'

Juan Valencia / Julián Carranza ↕

60'

Matias Espindola

62'

Lorenzo Faravelli / Matias Espindola ↕

62'

Kevin Ante / Owen González ↕

↕ Oussama Idrissi / Gael Álvarez

63'

↕ Sebastian Santos / Alan Bautista

63'

67'

Luis Jiménez

74'

Raúl Martínez / Miguel Rodriguez ↕

74'

Javier Ruiz / Emilio Martínez ↕

Francisco Venegas

77'

Javier Vallejo

78'

79'

(pen.) Juan Valencia⚽

↕ Francisco Venegas / Mauricio Isais

80'

⚽Salomón Rondón · ast. Rodolfo Pizarro

84'

85'

Juan Valencia

⚽Salomón Rondón · ast. Rodolfo Pizarro

87'

Eduardo Dos Santos

90'+3

Alan Bautista

90'+9

Pre-match prediction

49.62%

24.81%

X ←

25.57%

Necaxa

we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 24.81% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

2.34

1.15

-1.19

Necaxa

1.51

3.25

+1.74

Necaxa dominated by xG (3.25 vs 1.15). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Club America	13	27
2	Cruz Azul	14	26
3	Guadalajara Chivas	14	26
4	Atlas	14	24
5	Toluca	14	23
6	Leon	14	22
7	Monterrey	13	20
8	Club Tijuana	13	20
9	Club Queretaro	13	20
10	Santos Laguna	14	19
11	Atletico San Luis	14	19
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	14	17
13	CF Pachuca	14	16
14	Puebla	14	16
15	Tigres UANL	14	15
16	Atlante FC	14	14
17	Necaxa	14	10
18	FC Juarez	14	5

Lineups

CF Pachuca 4-2-3-1

C. Moreno G 6.12

F. Venegas 80' D 6.05

S. Barreto D 6.57

Eduardo Bauermann 1 ⚽ D 6.93

S. Santos 63' D 6.17

C. Rivera M 6.61

S. Rodríguez 45' M 5.80

O. Idrissi 1 👟 63' M 7.05

R. Pizarro 2 👟 M 7.42

207

45' M 5.59

S. Rondón 2 ⚽ F 9.17

Bench

A. Alcaraz 45' F 6.77

Alán Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez 27' M 6.00

211

C. Hernandez F 0.00

187

G. Ãlvarez 27' F 6.51

J. Berlanga D 0.00

J. Eulogio G 0.00

M. Isaís 10' D 5.92

N. Vallejo 45' F 6.90

P. Budib D 0.00

206

Thomas Contreras M 0.00

Necaxa 4-1-4-1

L. Jiménez G 5.85

C. Vargas D 6.00

D. Ochoa D 6.21

A. Oliveros D 6.16

E. Martínez 74' D 6.46

P. Pedraza M 6.44

Owen de Jesús González Ojeda 62' M 6.29

M. Espíndola 1 ⚽ 1 👟 62' M 8.15

D. Leyva M 6.10

M. Rodríguez 74' M 6.37

J. Carranza 1 ⚽ 52' F 7.85

Bench

F. Méndez D 0.00

181

J. Orantes G 0.00

J. Ruiz 16' M 6.06

J. Torres M 0.00

J. Valencia 1 ⚽ 38' F 7.76

Kaiky Naves D 0.00

K. Rosero 28' F 6.68

L. Faravelli 28' M 5.97

M. Zaleta M 0.00

R. Martínez 16' D 5.73

Best on the pitch

S. Rondón

F · CF

9.17

2 ⚽

6 shots · 17 pass

M. Espíndola

M · Necaxa

8.15

1 ⚽ 1 👟

1 shots · 25 pass

J. Carranza

F · Necaxa

7.85

1 ⚽

2 shots · 9 pass

J. Valencia

F · Necaxa

7.76

1 ⚽

3 shots · 6 pass

R. Pizarro

M · CF

7.42

2 👟

1 shots · 49 pass

O. Idrissi

M · CF

7.05

1 👟

2 shots · 28 pass

CF Pachuca — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
C. Moreno	G	90	6.12	—	—	0	38	29%	0	—	—
F. Venegas	D	80	6.05	—	—	0	30	24%	2	1	—
S. Barreto	D	90	6.57	—	—	1	65	58%	3	—	—
Eduardo Bauermann	D	90	6.93	1	—	2	58	54%	2	1	—
S. Santos	D	63	6.17	—	—	0	29	24%	3	—	—
C. Rivera	M	90	6.61	—	—	1	67	60%	2	—	—
S. Rodríguez	M	45	5.80	—	—	0	13	12%	0	—	—
O. Idrissi	M	63	7.05	—	1	2	28	22%	0	—	—
R. Pizarro	M	90	7.42	—	2	1	49	35%	1	—	—
	M	45	5.59	—	—	1	5	1%	1	—	—
S. Rondón	F	90	9.17	2	—	6	17	13%	0	—	—
A. Alcaraz	F	45	6.77	—	—	2	10	8%	1	—	—
Alán Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez	M	27	6.00	—	—	0	25	21%	1	1	—
G. Ãlvarez	F	27	6.51	—	—	0	4	3%	1	—	—
M. Isaís	D	10	5.92	—	—	0	8	4%	0	—	—
N. Vallejo	F	45	6.90	—	—	2	18	17%	1	1	—

Necaxa — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
L. Jiménez	G	90	5.85	—	—	0	36	17%	0	1	—
C. Vargas	D	90	6.00	—	—	1	27	17%	7	—	—
D. Ochoa	D	90	6.21	—	—	1	40	33%	0	—	—
A. Oliveros	D	90	6.16	—	—	1	26	23%	0	—	—
E. Martínez	D	74	6.46	—	—	0	22	18%	0	—	—
P. Pedraza	M	90	6.44	—	—	0	20	19%	2	—	—
Owen de Jesús González Ojeda	M	62	6.29	—	—	2	18	14%	0	—	—
M. Espíndola	M	62	8.15	1	1	1	25	21%	0	1	—
D. Leyva	M	90	6.10	—	—	2	37	27%	0	—	—
M. Rodríguez	M	74	6.37	—	—	3	24	20%	2	1	—
J. Carranza	F	52	7.85	1	—	2	9	8%	0	—	—
J. Ruiz	M	16	6.06	—	—	0	7	7%	0	—	—
J. Valencia	F	38	7.76	1	—	3	6	6%	0	1	—
K. Rosero	F	28	6.68	—	—	0	4	3%	0	—	—
L. Faravelli	M	28	5.97	—	—	0	11	11%	0	—	—
R. Martínez	D	16	5.73	—	—	0	5	1%	1	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of CF Pachuca vs Necaxa?

The final score was CF Pachuca 3–3 Necaxa.

What did the model predict before CF Pachuca vs Necaxa?

The model assigned 49% probability to a CF Pachuca win, 24% to a draw, and 25% to an Necaxa win.