Liga MX
· Clausura - Quarter-finals
May 11, 2026 01:00
✓Model correct — prediction CF Pachuca
E. Valencia
10'
(pen.)
Kenedy
(ast. A. Dominguez)
48'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave CF Pachuca a 55% win probability (draw 22%, Toluca 22%). The final result was CF Pachuca 2–0 Toluca. In 3 previous meetings, CF Pachuca have won 1 times, with 2 draws and 0 wins for Toluca.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
14
4
Shots on target
3
1.72
Actual xG
0.69
3
Saves
2
35%
Possession
65%
1
Corners
6
21
Tackles
14
2
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
⚽E. Valencia
(pen.)
10'
O. Idrissi
13'
46'
F. Rossi
/
S. Simon
O. Idrissi
/ A. Dominguez
46'
⚽Kenedy
· ast. A. Dominguez
48'
56'
A. Briseno
/
Bruno Mendez
56'
J. Angulo
/
M. Ruiz
56'
Helinho
/
N. Castro
S. D. Barreto
60'
63'
S. Cordova
/
F. Rossi
E. Valencia
/ S. Rondon
68'
E. Montiel
/ A. Bautista
68'
Kenedy
/ L. Quinones
80'
V. Guzman
/ S. Rodriguez
86'
Pre-match prediction
55.02%
CF ←
22.36%
X
22.62%
Toluca
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (CF Pachuca)
55.02%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.14
1.72
-0.41
1.12
0.69
-0.43
CF Pachuca dominated by xG (1.72 vs 0.69).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
25
C. Moreno
G
C. Moreno
G
12
B. García
D
B. García
D
2
S. Barreto
D
S. Barreto
D
4
Eduardo Bauermann
D
Eduardo Bauermann
D
14
C. Sánchez
D
C. Sánchez
D
8
V. Guzmán
86'
M
V. Guzmán
86'
M
16
C. Rivera
M
C. Rivera
M
11
O. Idrissi
45'
M
O. Idrissi
45'
M
28
E. Montiel
68'
M
E. Montiel
68'
M
29
Kenedy
1 ⚽
80'
M
Kenedy
1 ⚽
80'
M
10
E. Valencia
1 ⚽
68'
F
E. Valencia
1 ⚽
68'
F
Bench
26
Alán Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez
22'
M
Alán Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez
22'
M
18
Alexei Domínguez
1 👟
45'
F
Alexei Domínguez
1 👟
45'
F
187
G. Ãlvarez
F
G. Ãlvarez
F
31
J. Eulogio
G
J. Eulogio
G
13
Jorge Berlanga
D
Jorge Berlanga
D
7
L. Quiñones
10'
F
L. Quiñones
10'
F
5
P. Pedraza
M
P. Pedraza
M
21
René López
D
René López
D
188
S. Rodríguez
4'
M
S. Rodríguez
4'
M
23
S. Rondón
22'
F
S. Rondón
22'
F
22
Luis García
G
Luis García
G
17
M. Isaís
D
M. Isaís
D
25
E. López
D
E. López
D
4
B. Méndez
56'
D
B. Méndez
56'
D
2
D. Barbosa
D
D. Barbosa
D
14
M. Ruiz
56'
M
M. Ruiz
56'
M
5
F. Romero
M
F. Romero
M
15
P. Pérez
M
P. Pérez
M
8
N. Castro
56'
M
N. Castro
56'
M
19
Santiago Simón
45'
M
Santiago Simón
45'
M
29
J. Díaz
F
J. Díaz
F
Bench
3
A. Briseño
34'
D
A. Briseño
34'
D
35
Alek Álvarez
D
Alek Álvarez
D
206
Erick Orta
D
Erick Orta
D
24
F. Arce
M
F. Arce
M
27
F. Rossi
18'
F
F. Rossi
18'
F
11
Helinho
34'
F
Helinho
34'
F
1
H. González
G
H. González
G
10
J. Angulo
34'
M
J. Angulo
34'
M
7
Sebastián Córdova
27'
M
Sebastián Córdova
27'
M
33
V. Arteaga
M
V. Arteaga
M
Best on the pitch
Alexei Domínguez
F · CF
7.70
1 👟
· 8 pass
Kenedy
M · CF
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 19 pass
C. Moreno
G · CF
7.50
· 29 pass
B. García
D · CF
7.30
1 shots
· 38 pass
S. Barreto
D · CF
7.30
· 14 pass
C. Sánchez
D · CF
7.30
· 23 pass
CF Pachuca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Moreno | G | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 29 | 15% | — | — | — |
| B. García | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Barreto | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Eduardo Bauermann | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Sánchez | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 17% | 3 | — | — |
| V. Guzmán | M | 86 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Rivera | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 29 | 22% | 5 | — | — |
| O. Idrissi | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 21 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
| E. Montiel | M | 68 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | 3 | — | — |
| Kenedy | M | 80 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 3 | 19 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Valencia | F | 68 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 6 | — | — | — | — |
| Alán Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez | M | 22 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Alexei Domínguez | F | 45 | 7.70 | — | 1 | — | 8 | 5% | 4 | — | — |
| L. Quiñones | F | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| S. Rodríguez | M | 4 | — | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| S. Rondón | F | 22 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 7 | 2% | — | — | — |
Toluca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis García | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Isaís | D | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | 2 | 51 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| E. López | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 59 | 53% | 3 | — | — |
| B. Méndez | D | 56 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 41 | 33% | — | — | — |
| D. Barbosa | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 35 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Ruiz | M | 56 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 32% | 3 | — | — |
| F. Romero | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 79 | 69% | — | — | — |
| P. Pérez | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 6 | 35 | 26% | — | — | — |
| N. Castro | M | 56 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Simón | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Díaz | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 22% | — | — | — |
| A. Briseño | D | 34 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 21 | 21% | — | — | — |
| F. Rossi | F | 18 | 6.70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Helinho | F | 34 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 10% | — | — | — |
| J. Angulo | M | 34 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Sebastián Córdova | M | 27 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of CF Pachuca vs Toluca?
The final score was CF Pachuca 2–0 Toluca.
What did the model predict before CF Pachuca vs Toluca?
The model assigned 55% probability to a CF Pachuca win, 22% to a draw, and 22% to an Toluca win.