Liga MX
· Clausura - Quarter-finals
May 11, 2026 01:00
✓Model correct — prediction CF Pachuca
E. Valencia
10'
(pen.)
Kenedy
(ast. A. Dominguez)
48'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave CF Pachuca a 55% win probability (draw 22%, Toluca 22%). The final result was CF Pachuca 2–0 Toluca. In 3 previous meetings, CF Pachuca have won 1 times, with 2 draws and 0 wins for Toluca.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
14
4
Shots on target
3
1.72
Actual xG
0.69
3
Saves
2
35%
Possession
65%
1
Corners
6
21
Tackles
14
2
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
⚽E. Valencia
(pen.)
10'
O. Idrissi
13'
46'
F. Rossi
/
S. Simon
O. Idrissi
/ A. Dominguez
46'
⚽Kenedy
· ast. A. Dominguez
48'
56'
A. Briseno
/
Bruno Mendez
56'
J. Angulo
/
M. Ruiz
56'
Helinho
/
N. Castro
S. D. Barreto
60'
63'
S. Cordova
/
F. Rossi
E. Valencia
/ S. Rondon
68'
E. Montiel
/ A. Bautista
68'
Kenedy
/ L. Quinones
80'
V. Guzman
/ S. Rodriguez
86'
Pre-match prediction
55.02%
CF ←
22.36%
X
22.62%
Toluca
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (CF Pachuca)
55.02%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.14
1.72
-0.41
1.12
0.69
-0.43
CF Pachuca dominated by xG (1.72 vs 0.69).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
25
C. Moreno
G
C. Moreno
G
12
Brian García
D
Brian García
D
2
Sergio Barreto
D
Sergio Barreto
D
4
Eduardo Bauermann
D
Eduardo Bauermann
D
14
C. Sánchez
D
C. Sánchez
D
8
Víctor Guzmán
86'
M
Víctor Guzmán
86'
M
16
C. Rivera
M
C. Rivera
M
11
O. Idrissi
45'
M
O. Idrissi
45'
M
28
E. Montiel
68'
M
E. Montiel
68'
M
29
Kenedy
1 ⚽
80'
M
Kenedy
1 ⚽
80'
M
10
E. Valencia
1 ⚽
68'
F
E. Valencia
1 ⚽
68'
F
Bench
18
A. Domínguez
1 👟
45'
F
A. Domínguez
1 👟
45'
F
26
Alan Bautista
22'
M
Alan Bautista
22'
M
187
Gael Álvarez
F
Gael Álvarez
F
13
J. Berlanga
D
J. Berlanga
D
31
J. Eulogio
G
J. Eulogio
G
7
Luis Quiñones
10'
F
Luis Quiñones
10'
F
5
Pedro Pedraza
M
Pedro Pedraza
M
21
René López
D
René López
D
188
Sergio Rodríguez
4'
M
Sergio Rodríguez
4'
M
23
S. Rondón
22'
F
S. Rondón
22'
F
22
Luis García
G
Luis García
G
17
M. Isaís
D
M. Isaís
D
25
Everardo López
D
Everardo López
D
4
Bruno Méndez
56'
D
Bruno Méndez
56'
D
2
Diego Barbosa
D
Diego Barbosa
D
14
M. Ruiz
56'
M
M. Ruiz
56'
M
5
F. Romero
M
F. Romero
M
15
Pavel Pérez
M
Pavel Pérez
M
8
Nicolás Castro
56'
M
Nicolás Castro
56'
M
19
Santiago Simón
45'
M
Santiago Simón
45'
M
29
Jorge Díaz
F
Jorge Díaz
F
Bench
35
Alek Álvarez
D
Alek Álvarez
D
3
Antonio Briseño
34'
D
Antonio Briseño
34'
D
206
Erick Orta
D
Erick Orta
D
24
Fernando Arce Juárez
M
Fernando Arce Juárez
M
27
Franco Rossi
18'
F
Franco Rossi
18'
F
11
Helinho
34'
F
Helinho
34'
F
1
Hugo Gonzalez
G
Hugo Gonzalez
G
10
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
34'
M
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
34'
M
7
S. Córdova
27'
M
S. Córdova
27'
M
33
V. Arteaga
M
V. Arteaga
M
Best on the pitch
A. Domínguez
F · CF
7.70
1 👟
· 8 pass
Kenedy
M · CF
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 19 pass
C. Moreno
G · CF
7.50
· 29 pass
E. Valencia
F · CF
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 6 pass
Brian García
D · CF
7.30
1 shots
· 38 pass
Sergio Barreto
D · CF
7.30
· 14 pass
CF Pachuca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Moreno | G | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 29 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Brian García | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| Sergio Barreto | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Eduardo Bauermann | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Sánchez | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 17% | 3 | — | — |
| Víctor Guzmán | M | 86 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Rivera | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 29 | 22% | 5 | — | — |
| O. Idrissi | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 21 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
| E. Montiel | M | 68 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | 3 | — | — |
| Kenedy | M | 80 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 3 | 19 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Valencia | F | 68 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 6 | — | — | — | — |
| A. Domínguez | F | 45 | 7.70 | — | 1 | — | 8 | 5% | 4 | — | — |
| Alan Bautista | M | 22 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Luis Quiñones | F | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Sergio Rodríguez | M | 4 | — | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| S. Rondón | F | 22 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 7 | 2% | — | — | — |
Toluca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis García | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Isaís | D | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | 2 | 51 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| Everardo López | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 59 | 53% | 3 | — | — |
| Bruno Méndez | D | 56 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 41 | 33% | — | — | — |
| Diego Barbosa | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 35 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Ruiz | M | 56 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 32% | 3 | — | — |
| F. Romero | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 79 | 69% | — | — | — |
| Pavel Pérez | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 6 | 35 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Castro | M | 56 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Simón | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| Jorge Díaz | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Antonio Briseño | D | 34 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 21 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Franco Rossi | F | 18 | 6.70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Helinho | F | 34 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Jesús Ricardo Angulo | M | 34 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Córdova | M | 27 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of CF Pachuca vs Toluca?
The final score was CF Pachuca 2–0 Toluca.
What did the model predict before CF Pachuca vs Toluca?
The model assigned 55% probability to a CF Pachuca win, 22% to a draw, and 22% to an Toluca win.