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Paide - Vaprus

Meistriliiga September 16, 2026 18:00 Paide linnastaadion, Paide
Paide
#4 · 45 pts
vs
Vaprus
#6 · 34 pts
Weather at kick-off ☁️ Overcast 16.9°C 💨 16 km/h · Paide
⚡ Pre-match analysis
55.91%
Win
Paide
19.03%
Draw
25.06%
Win
Vaprus
2.31
Expected xG
1.52
Most likely outcome
Paide
55.91%
Probability
51.7%
1X2 accuracy · 29 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (8.83%)
1X2 Result
1 56%
X 19%
2 25%
Double Chance
1X 75%
X2 44%
12 81%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 65%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Paide a 55% win probability, against 19% for a draw and 25% for Vaprus. Expected goals are 2.3 for Paide and 1.5 for Vaprus (total 3.8), with a 79% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 8.83% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Paide have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Vaprus.

Season Stats

Paide
7W 4D 4L
Vaprus
5W 3D 7L
Averages per game
1.5
Goals
1.5
1.3
Conceded
2.0
Percentages
80%
O 1.5
80%
40%
O 2.5
73%
67%
BTTS
73%
20%
Clean Sht
20%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Meistriliiga. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
40%
O 3.5
55%
BTTS
Paide
5W 1D 4L · at home
Vaprus
3W 2D 5L · away
1.3
gls/g
1.0
1.1
Conceded
1.9
50%
Win %
30%
60%
Win or Draw
50%
60%
O 1.5
80%
40%
O 2.5
70%
30%
O 3.5
50%
50%
BTTS
60%
30%
Clean Sht
20%
20%
Failed to Score
30%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Paide Vaprus →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.2% 3.3% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1%
1 5.0% 7.6% 5.8% 2.9% 1.1% 0.3%
2 5.8% 8.8% 6.7% 3.4% 1.3% 0.4%
3 4.5% 6.8% 5.2% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3%
4 2.6% 3.9% 3.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%
5 1.2% 1.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Recent form

Paide Paide
W Tammeka 0–2
L FC Levadia Tallinn 0–2
W Flora Tallinn 1–2
W Nõmme United 4–1
D Trans Narva 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 37%
Vaprus Vaprus
L FC Levadia Tallinn 4–0
W Laagri 3–2
W Nõmme United 1–0
D Kuressaare 2–2
L Flora Tallinn 1–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 22%

Playing profile

Paide Paide
Attack
46
Defence
70
Form
62
Vaprus Vaprus
Attack
43
Defence
57
Form
44
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Paide
0
Draw
1
Vaprus
4 Jul 2026 Meistriliiga 3–1
7 Mar 2026 Meistriliiga 2–3

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 FC Levadia Tallinn FC Levadia Tallinn 27 68
2 Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn 27 49
3 Kalju Nomme Kalju Nomme 28 47
4 Paide Paide 26 45
5 Tammeka Tammeka 26 41
6 Vaprus Vaprus 27 34
7 Laagri Laagri 27 31
8 Nõmme United Nõmme United 27 28
9 Kuressaare Kuressaare 27 28
10 Trans Narva Trans Narva 28 18
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Paide vs Vaprus?
The model gives Paide a 55% win probability, 19% for a draw, and 25% for an Vaprus win.
How many goals are expected in Paide vs Vaprus?
Expected goals: Paide 2.3, Vaprus 1.5 (total 3.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 79%.
What is the most likely score in Paide vs Vaprus?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.83%.