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Serie B · Regular Season - 33 April 05, 2026 19:30 Renzo Barbera, Palermo
Palermo
#1 · 22 pts
2 – 0
Final score
Avellino
#9 · 12 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Palermo
A. Palumbo (ast. J. Le Douaron) 12'
F. Ranocchia (ast. J. Pohjanpalo) 82'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Palermo a 61% win probability (draw 25%, Avellino 12%). The final result was Palermo 2–0 Avellino. In 2 previous meetings, Palermo have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 0 wins for Avellino.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
3
3
Shots on target
1
0.67
Actual xG
0.12
0
Saves
1
51%
Possession
49%
1
Corners
0
14
Tackles
9
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽A. Palumbo · ast. J. Le Douaron
12'
33'
A. Le Borgne / L. Palmiero ↕
Niccolò Pierozzi
37'
37'
Armando Izzo
43'
Armando Izzo
43'
Armando Izzo
43'
45'+2
Lorenco Šimić
↕ N. Pierozzi / E. Gyasi
46'
46'
R. Russo / C. Patierno ↕
46'
P. Enrici / M. Besaggio ↕
↕ J. Joronen / A. Gomis
57'
64'
R. Insigne / T. Biasci ↕
Emmanuel Gyasi
66'
↕ A. Palumbo / A. Vasic
71'
↕ J. Segre / S. Giovane
72'
80'
G. Tutino / D. Sounas ↕
⚽F. Ranocchia · ast. J. Pohjanpalo
82'
↕ M. Bani / G. Magnani
85'
Pre-match prediction
61.92%
Palermo ←
25.99%
X
12.09%
Avellino
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Palermo) 61.92% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Palermo
1.71
0.67
-1.04
Avellino
0.66
0.12
-0.54
Palermo dominated by xG (0.67 vs 0.12). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Palermo Palermo 8 22
2 Modena Modena 9 19
3 Ascoli Ascoli 9 18
4 Mantova Mantova 9 17
5 Benevento Benevento 9 15
6 Pisa Pisa 8 14
7 Padova Padova 9 13
8 Sudtirol Sudtirol 9 13
9 Avellino Avellino 9 12
10 Cesena Cesena 9 11
11 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella 9 10
12 Arezzo Arezzo 8 10
13 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 8 9
14 Cremonese Cremonese 9 9
15 Vicenza Virtus Vicenza Virtus 9 9
16 Juve Stabia Juve Stabia 8 8
17 Empoli Empoli 9 7
18 Carrarese Carrarese 8 7
19 Sampdoria Sampdoria 9 5
20 Catanzaro Catanzaro 9 5
Lineups
Palermo Palermo 3-4-1-2
66 Jesse Joronen Jesse Joronen 57' G 6.60
32 P. Ceccaroni P. Ceccaroni D 7.00
13 M. Bani M. Bani 85' D 7.30
29 P. Peda P. Peda D 7.20
3
M 7.30
10 F. Ranocchia F. Ranocchia 1 ⚽ M 8.30
8 J. Segre J. Segre 72' M 6.60
27 N. Pierozzi N. Pierozzi 45' M 7.30
5 A. Palumbo A. Palumbo 1 ⚽ 71' F 8.00
20 J. Pohjanpalo J. Pohjanpalo 1 👟 F 6.90
21 J. Le Douaron J. Le Douaron 1 👟 F 6.90
Bench
14 A. Vasic A. Vasic 19' M 6.70
19 B. Bereszyński B. Bereszyński D
11 E. Gyasi E. Gyasi 45' D 6.70
96 G. Magnani G. Magnani 11' D 6.90
17 S. Giovane S. Giovane 18' M 6.30
Avellino Avellino 4-3-1-2
30
G 6.30
3
D 6.20
4 A. Izzo A. Izzo 43' D 5.20
44 L. Šimić L. Šimić D 6.30
29 T. Cancellotti T. Cancellotti D 6.30
39 M. Besaggio M. Besaggio 45' M 6.20
6 L. Palmiero L. Palmiero 33' M 6.20
24 D. Sounas D. Sounas 80' M 6.90
20 M. Palumbo M. Palumbo M 6.90
14 T. Biasci T. Biasci 64' F 6.20
9 Cosimo Patierno Cosimo Patierno 45' F 5.90
Bench
1 A. Iannarilli A. Iannarilli G
63 Alessandro Fontanarosa Alessandro Fontanarosa D
2 F. Missori F. Missori D
16 J. Kumi J. Kumi M
94 Roberto Insigne Roberto Insigne 26' F 6.60
10 R. Russo R. Russo 45' F 6.60
Best on the pitch
F. Ranocchia
F. Ranocchia
M · Palermo
8.30
1 ⚽
3 shots · 66 pass
A. Palumbo
A. Palumbo
F · Palermo
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots · 29 pass
M. Bani
M. Bani
D · Palermo
7.30
1 shots · 42 pass
M · Palermo
7.30
· 55 pass
N. Pierozzi
N. Pierozzi
M · Palermo
7.30
· 17 pass
P. Peda
P. Peda
D · Palermo
7.20
· 36 pass
Palermo Palermo — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Jesse Joronen G 57 6.60 — — — 14 8% — — —
P. Ceccaroni D 90 7.00 — — 1 60 51% — — —
M. Bani D 85 7.30 — — 1 42 37% 1 — —
P. Peda D 90 7.20 — — — 36 22% 1 — —
M 90 7.30 — — — 55 49% 1 — —
F. Ranocchia M 90 8.30 1 — 3 66 51% 2 — —
J. Segre M 72 6.60 — — 2 21 16% 2 — —
N. Pierozzi M 45 7.30 — — — 17 14% 1 1 —
A. Palumbo F 71 8.00 1 — 1 29 25% 3 — —
J. Pohjanpalo F 90 6.90 — 1 2 15 12% — — —
J. Le Douaron F 90 6.90 — 1 — 15 9% 2 — —
A. Vasic M 19 6.70 — — — 5 4% 1 — —
E. Gyasi D 45 6.70 — — — 9 9% — 1 —
G. Magnani D 11 6.90 — — — 4 4% — — —
S. Giovane M 18 6.30 — — — 5 3% — — —
Avellino Avellino — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.30 — — — 27 13% — — —
D 90 6.20 — — — 37 27% 3 — —
A. Izzo D 43 5.20 — — — 27 20% 1 2 1
L. Šimić D 90 6.30 — — — 47 34% 2 1 —
T. Cancellotti D 90 6.30 — — — 39 33% — — —
M. Besaggio M 45 6.20 — — — 21 17% — — —
L. Palmiero M 33 6.20 — — — 20 17% — — —
D. Sounas M 80 6.90 — — — 39 31% — — —
M. Palumbo M 90 6.90 — — 2 28 21% 1 — —
T. Biasci F 64 6.20 — — — 12 10% 1 — —
Cosimo Patierno F 45 5.90 — — — 7 4% — — —
Roberto Insigne F 26 6.60 — — — 14 13% 1 — —
R. Russo F 45 6.60 — — 1 14 9% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Palermo vs Avellino?
The final score was Palermo 2–0 Avellino.
What did the model predict before Palermo vs Avellino?
The model assigned 61% probability to a Palermo win, 25% to a draw, and 12% to an Avellino win.