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Serie B · Regular Season - 33 April 05, 2026 19:30 Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo
Palermo
#4 · 72 pts
2 – 0
Final score
Avellino
#8 · 49 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Palermo
A. Palumbo (ast. J. Le Douaron) 12'
F. Ranocchia (ast. J. Pohjanpalo) 82'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Palermo a 61% win probability (draw 25%, Avellino 12%). The final result was Palermo 2–0 Avellino. In 1 previous meetings, Palermo have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Avellino.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
3
3
Shots on target
1
0.67
Actual xG
0.12
0
Saves
1
51%
Possession
49%
1
Corners
0
14
Tackles
9
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽A. Palumbo · ast. J. Le Douaron
12'
33'
A. Le Borgne / L. Palmiero ↕
Niccolò Pierozzi
37'
37'
Armando Izzo
43'
Armando Izzo
43'
Armando Izzo
43'
45'+2
Lorenco Šimić
↕ N. Pierozzi / E. Gyasi
46'
46'
R. Russo / C. Patierno ↕
46'
P. Enrici / M. Besaggio ↕
↕ J. Joronen / A. Gomis
57'
64'
R. Insigne / T. Biasci ↕
Emmanuel Gyasi
66'
↕ A. Palumbo / A. Vasic
71'
↕ J. Segre / S. Giovane
72'
80'
G. Tutino / D. Sounas ↕
⚽F. Ranocchia · ast. J. Pohjanpalo
82'
↕ M. Bani / G. Magnani
85'
Pre-match prediction
61.92%
Palermo ←
25.99%
X
12.09%
Avellino
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Palermo) 61.92% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Palermo
1.71
0.67
-1.04
Avellino
0.66
0.12
-0.54
Palermo dominated by xG (0.67 vs 0.12). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Venezia Venezia 38 82
1 Sudtirol Sudtirol 1 1
2 Frosinone Frosinone 38 81
2 Bari Bari 1 1
3 Monza Monza 38 76
4 Palermo Palermo 38 72
5 Catanzaro Catanzaro 38 59
6 Modena Modena 38 55
7 Juve Stabia Juve Stabia 38 51
8 Avellino Avellino 38 49
9 Mantova Mantova 38 46
10 Padova Padova 38 46
11 Cesena Cesena 38 46
12 Carrarese Carrarese 38 44
13 Sampdoria Sampdoria 38 44
14 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella 38 42
15 Empoli Empoli 38 41
16 Sudtirol Sudtirol 38 41
17 Bari Bari 38 40
18 Reggiana Reggiana 38 37
19 Spezia Spezia 38 35
20 Pescara Pescara 38 35
Lineups
Palermo Palermo 3-4-1-2
66 Jesse Joronen Jesse Joronen 57' G 6.60
32 Pietro Ceccaroni Pietro Ceccaroni D 7.00
13 M. Bani M. Bani 85' D 7.30
29 Patryk Peda Patryk Peda D 7.20
3
M 7.30
10 Filippo Ranocchia Filippo Ranocchia 1 ⚽ M 8.30
8 Jacopo Segre Jacopo Segre 72' M 6.60
27 N. Pierozzi N. Pierozzi 45' M 7.30
5 A. Palumbo A. Palumbo 1 ⚽ 71' F 8.00
20 J. Pohjanpalo J. Pohjanpalo 1 👟 F 6.90
21 Jérémy Le Douaron Jérémy Le Douaron 1 👟 F 6.90
Bench
14 Aljoša Vasić Aljoša Vasić 19' M 6.70
19 Bartosz Bereszyński Bartosz Bereszyński D
11 Emmanuel Gyasi Emmanuel Gyasi 45' D 6.70
96 Giangiacomo Magnani Giangiacomo Magnani 11' D 6.90
17 Samuel Giovane Samuel Giovane 18' M 6.30
Avellino Avellino 4-3-1-2
30
G 6.30
3
D 6.20
4 Armando Izzo Armando Izzo 43' D 5.20
44
Lorenco Šimić D 6.30
29 Tommaso Cancellotti Tommaso Cancellotti D 6.30
39 Michele Besaggio Michele Besaggio 45' M 6.20
6 L. Palmiero L. Palmiero 33' M 6.20
24 Dimitrios Sounas Dimitrios Sounas 80' M 6.90
20 Martin Palumbo Martin Palumbo M 6.90
14 T. Biasci T. Biasci 64' F 6.20
9 Cosimo Patierno Cosimo Patierno 45' F 5.90
Bench
63 A. Fontanarosa A. Fontanarosa D
1 Antony Iannarilli Antony Iannarilli G
2 Filippo Missori Filippo Missori D
16 Justin Kumi Justin Kumi M
10 Raffaele Russo Raffaele Russo 45' F 6.60
94 Roberto Insigne Roberto Insigne 26' F 6.60
Best on the pitch
Filippo Ranocchia
Filippo Ranocchia
M · Palermo
8.30
1 ⚽
3 shots · 66 pass
A. Palumbo
A. Palumbo
F · Palermo
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots · 29 pass
M. Bani
M. Bani
D · Palermo
7.30
1 shots · 42 pass
M · Palermo
7.30
· 55 pass
N. Pierozzi
N. Pierozzi
M · Palermo
7.30
· 17 pass
Patryk Peda
Patryk Peda
D · Palermo
7.20
· 36 pass
Palermo Palermo — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Jesse Joronen G 57 6.60 — — — 14 8% — — —
Pietro Ceccaroni D 90 7.00 — — 1 60 51% — — —
M. Bani D 85 7.30 — — 1 42 37% 1 — —
Patryk Peda D 90 7.20 — — — 36 22% 1 — —
M 90 7.30 — — — 55 49% 1 — —
Filippo Ranocchia M 90 8.30 1 — 3 66 51% 2 — —
Jacopo Segre M 72 6.60 — — 2 21 16% 2 — —
N. Pierozzi M 45 7.30 — — — 17 14% 1 1 —
A. Palumbo F 71 8.00 1 — 1 29 25% 3 — —
J. Pohjanpalo F 90 6.90 — 1 2 15 12% — — —
Jérémy Le Douaron F 90 6.90 — 1 — 15 9% 2 — —
Aljoša Vasić M 19 6.70 — — — 5 4% 1 — —
Emmanuel Gyasi D 45 6.70 — — — 9 9% — 1 —
Giangiacomo Magnani D 11 6.90 — — — 4 4% — — —
Samuel Giovane M 18 6.30 — — — 5 3% — — —
Avellino Avellino — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.30 — — — 27 13% — — —
D 90 6.20 — — — 37 27% 3 — —
Armando Izzo D 43 5.20 — — — 27 20% 1 2 1
Lorenco Šimić D 90 6.30 — — — 47 34% 2 1 —
Tommaso Cancellotti D 90 6.30 — — — 39 33% — — —
Michele Besaggio M 45 6.20 — — — 21 17% — — —
L. Palmiero M 33 6.20 — — — 20 17% — — —
Dimitrios Sounas M 80 6.90 — — — 39 31% — — —
Martin Palumbo M 90 6.90 — — 2 28 21% 1 — —
T. Biasci F 64 6.20 — — — 12 10% 1 — —
Cosimo Patierno F 45 5.90 — — — 7 4% — — —
Raffaele Russo F 45 6.60 — — 1 14 9% — — —
Roberto Insigne F 26 6.60 — — — 14 13% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Palermo vs Avellino?
The final score was Palermo 2–0 Avellino.
What did the model predict before Palermo vs Avellino?
The model assigned 61% probability to a Palermo win, 25% to a draw, and 12% to an Avellino win.