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← Serie B
Serie B · Semi-finals May 20, 2026 20:00 Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo
Palermo
#4 · 72 pts
2 – 0
Final score
Catanzaro
#5 · 59 pts
J. Pohjanpalo (ast. N. Pierozzi) 3'
R. Modesto (ast. F. Ranocchia) 89'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Palermo a 41% win probability (draw 23%, Catanzaro 35%). The final result was Palermo 2–0 Catanzaro. In 3 previous meetings, Palermo have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Catanzaro.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
11
5
Shots on target
4
2.42
Actual xG
0.54
4
Saves
4
53%
Possession
47%
5
Corners
1
17
Tackles
21
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
⚽J. Pohjanpalo · ast. N. Pierozzi
3'
↕ P. Peda / G. Magnani
16'
D. Johnsen
20'
J. Segre
45'+4
↕ J. Le Douaron / A. Vasic
46'
46'
F. Di Francesco / M. Liberali ↕
49'
F. Pittarello
↕ J. Segre / R. Modesto
50'
61'
M. Pompetti / P. Iemmello ↕
A. Vasic
65'
↕ D. Johnsen / E. Gyasi
75'
↕ P. Ceccaroni / G. Corona
76'
78'
R. Frosinini / G. Alesi ↕
78'
F. Rispoli / J. Petriccione ↕
87'
E. Bashi / C. Favasuli ↕
⚽R. Modesto · ast. F. Ranocchia
89'
N. Pierozzi
90'+3
90'+4
S. Pontisso
90'+5
F. Di Francesco
A. Palumbo
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
41.73%
Palermo ←
23.27%
X
35.0%
Catanzaro
we assigned to the actual result (Palermo) 41.73% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Palermo
1.52
2.42
+0.9
Catanzaro
1.52
0.54
-0.98
Palermo dominated by xG (2.42 vs 0.54). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Venezia Venezia 38 82
1 Sudtirol Sudtirol 1 1
2 Frosinone Frosinone 38 81
2 Bari Bari 1 1
3 Monza Monza 38 76
4 Palermo Palermo 38 72
5 Catanzaro Catanzaro 38 59
6 Modena Modena 38 55
7 Juve Stabia Juve Stabia 38 51
8 Avellino Avellino 38 49
9 Mantova Mantova 38 46
10 Padova Padova 38 46
11 Cesena Cesena 38 46
12 Carrarese Carrarese 38 44
13 Sampdoria Sampdoria 38 44
14 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella 38 42
15 Empoli Empoli 38 41
16 Sudtirol Sudtirol 38 41
17 Bari Bari 38 40
18 Reggiana Reggiana 38 37
19 Spezia Spezia 38 35
20 Pescara Pescara 38 35
Lineups
Palermo Palermo 4-3-3
66 Jesse Joronen Jesse Joronen G 7.90
3 Tommaso Augello Tommaso Augello D 7.30
32 Pietro Ceccaroni Pietro Ceccaroni 76' D 7.50
29 Patryk Peda Patryk Peda 16' D 6.70
27 Niccolò Pierozzi Niccolò Pierozzi 1 👟 D 7.20
10 Filippo Ranocchia Filippo Ranocchia 1 👟 M 8.20
5 A. Palumbo A. Palumbo M 7.20
8 Jacopo Segre Jacopo Segre 50' M 6.60
7 Dennis Johnsen Dennis Johnsen 75' F 6.70
20 J. Pohjanpalo J. Pohjanpalo 1 ⚽ F 7.20
21 Jérémy Le Douaron Jérémy Le Douaron 45' F 6.30
Bench
28 Alexis Blin Alexis Blin M
1 Alfred Gomis Alfred Gomis G
14 Aljoša Vasić Aljoša Vasić 45' M 6.30
19 Bartosz Bereszyński Bartosz Bereszyński D
6 Claudio Gomes Claudio Gomes M
72 Davide Veroli Davide Veroli D
11 Emmanuel Gyasi Emmanuel Gyasi 15' D 6.70
31 Giacomo Corona Giacomo Corona 14' F 6.70
96 Giangiacomo Magnani Giangiacomo Magnani 74' D 7.20
13 M. Bani M. Bani D
18 Rui Modesto Rui Modesto 1 ⚽ 40' M 7.50
17 Samuel Giovane Samuel Giovane M
Catanzaro Catanzaro 3-4-2-1
22 Mirko Pigliacelli Mirko Pigliacelli G 7.90
23 Nicolò Brighenti Nicolò Brighenti D 6.00
4 Matias Antonini Matias Antonini D 6.90
84 Tommaso Cassandro Tommaso Cassandro D 6.90
30 Gabriele Alesi Gabriele Alesi 78' M 6.60
20 S. Pontisso S. Pontisso M 7.30
10 J. Petriccione J. Petriccione 78' M 6.90
27 Costantino Favasuli Costantino Favasuli 87' M 7.50
9 P. Iemmello P. Iemmello 61' F 6.30
14 Mattia Liberali Mattia Liberali 45' F 7.00
8 F. Pittarello F. Pittarello F 6.20
Bench
1 Christian Marietta Christian Marietta G
98 Davide Buglio Davide Buglio M
5 Ervin Bashi Ervin Bashi 10' D 6.30
32 Fabio Rispoli Fabio Rispoli 12' M 6.70
94 Federico Di Francesco Federico Di Francesco 45' F 6.60
6 Fellipe Jack Fellipe Jack D
77 Marco D'Alessandro Marco D'Alessandro F
21 Marco Pompetti Marco Pompetti 29' M 6.70
39 N'Dri Koffi N'Dri Koffi F
19 P. Nuamah P. Nuamah F
28 Rémi Oudin Rémi Oudin M
62 Ruggero Frosinini Ruggero Frosinini 12' D 6.60
Best on the pitch
Filippo Ranocchia
Filippo Ranocchia
M · Palermo
8.20
1 👟
3 shots · 50 pass
Jesse Joronen
Jesse Joronen
G · Palermo
7.90
· 27 pass
Mirko Pigliacelli
Mirko Pigliacelli
G · Catanzaro
7.90
· 39 pass
Rui Modesto
Rui Modesto
M · Palermo
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots · 14 pass
Pietro Ceccaroni
Pietro Ceccaroni
D · Palermo
7.50
· 34 pass
Costantino Favasuli
Costantino Favasuli
M · Catanzaro
7.50
1 shots · 16 pass
Palermo Palermo — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Jesse Joronen G 90 7.90 — — — 27 21% — — —
Tommaso Augello D 90 7.30 — — — 50 39% 2 — —
Pietro Ceccaroni D 76 7.50 — — — 34 32% 5 — —
Patryk Peda D 16 6.70 — — — — — — — —
Niccolò Pierozzi D 90 7.20 — 1 — 33 27% — — 1
Filippo Ranocchia M 90 8.20 — 1 3 50 44% — — —
A. Palumbo M 90 7.20 — — 2 41 32% 2 — —
Jacopo Segre M 50 6.60 — — — 5 3% 2 1 —
Dennis Johnsen F 75 6.70 — — 2 15 7% — 1 —
J. Pohjanpalo F 90 7.20 1 — 2 14 6% — — —
Jérémy Le Douaron F 45 6.30 — — — 4 — 1 — —
Aljoša Vasić M 45 6.30 — — 3 14 10% 1 1 —
Emmanuel Gyasi D 15 6.70 — — — 3 2% 1 — —
Giacomo Corona F 14 6.70 — — — — — — — —
Giangiacomo Magnani D 74 7.20 — — — 27 21% 3 — —
Rui Modesto M 40 7.50 1 — 2 14 10% — — —
Catanzaro Catanzaro — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Mirko Pigliacelli G 90 7.90 — — — 39 16% — — —
Nicolò Brighenti D 90 6.00 — — — 40 31% 1 — —
Matias Antonini D 90 6.90 — — — 22 19% — — —
Tommaso Cassandro D 90 6.90 — — 1 17 14% 4 — —
Gabriele Alesi M 78 6.60 — — — 16 14% 1 — —
S. Pontisso M 90 7.30 — — 3 55 45% 1 1 —
J. Petriccione M 78 6.90 — — — 35 30% 2 — —
Costantino Favasuli M 87 7.50 — — 1 16 12% 9 — —
P. Iemmello F 61 6.30 — — 2 19 14% — — —
Mattia Liberali F 45 7.00 — — 1 9 5% 1 — —
F. Pittarello F 90 6.20 — — 2 12 11% — 1 —
Ervin Bashi D 10 6.30 — — — 1 1% — — —
Fabio Rispoli M 12 6.70 — — — 3 3% 1 — —
Federico Di Francesco F 45 6.60 — — 1 14 11% — 1 —
Marco Pompetti M 29 6.70 — — — 8 7% — — —
Ruggero Frosinini D 12 6.60 — — — 1 1% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Palermo vs Catanzaro?
The final score was Palermo 2–0 Catanzaro.
What did the model predict before Palermo vs Catanzaro?
The model assigned 41% probability to a Palermo win, 23% to a draw, and 35% to an Catanzaro win.