Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 12
April 19, 2026 23:30
G. Gomez
15'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Palmeiras a 45% win probability (draw 28%, Atletico Paranaense 25%). The final result was Palmeiras 1–0 Atletico Paranaense.
Match statistics
5
Total shots
4
2
Shots on target
3
0.41
Actual xG
0.33
3
Saves
1
51%
Possession
49%
9
Corners
3
5
Tackles
14
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
⚽G. Gomez
15'
23'
J. Portilla
Murilo
30'
42'
Jadson
Murilo
47'
Murilo
47'
J. Lopez
/ Bruno Fuchs
51'
53'
Joao Cruz
/
Jadson
56'
Joao Cruz
60'
B. Zapelli
/
J. Portilla
60'
Chiqueti
/
Dudu Kogitzki
63'
L. Esquivel
R. Sosa
71'
Andreas Pereira
/ Lucas Evangelista
72'
80'
Leo
/
F. Aguirre
80'
Renan Peixoto
/
Luiz Gustavo
R. Sosa
/ Vitor Roque
83'
Allan Elias
/ Benedetti
83'
J. Arias
/ Felipe Anderson
83'
Pre-match prediction
45.44%
Palmeiras ←
28.96%
X
25.59%
Atletico
we assigned to the actual result (Palmeiras)
45.44%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.39
0.41
-0.98
0.93
0.33
-0.6
xG dominance was balanced (0.41 – 0.33).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Carlos Miguel
G
Carlos Miguel
G
56
Arthur
D
Arthur
D
26
Murilo
47'
D
Murilo
47'
D
15
Gustavo Gómez
1 ⚽
D
Gustavo Gómez
1 ⚽
D
4
A. Giay
D
A. Giay
D
11
Jhon Arias
83'
M
Jhon Arias
83'
M
8
Andreas Pereira
72'
M
Andreas Pereira
72'
M
32
M
40
Allan
83'
M
Allan
83'
M
19
Ramón Sosa
83'
F
Ramón Sosa
83'
F
42
J. López
51'
F
J. López
51'
F
Bench
7
Felipe Anderson
16'
M
Felipe Anderson
16'
M
12
Khellven
D
Khellven
D
30
Lucas Evangelista
18'
M
Lucas Evangelista
18'
M
31
Luighi Hanri
F
Luighi Hanri
F
50
Luis Felipe
M
Luis Felipe
M
18
Mauricio
M
Mauricio
M
23
Santos
G
Santos
G
4
Arthur Dias
D
Arthur Dias
D
33
J. Aguirre
80'
D
J. Aguirre
80'
D
22
C. Terán
D
C. Terán
D
37
L. Esquivel
M
L. Esquivel
M
14
Luiz Gustavo
80'
M
Luiz Gustavo
80'
M
27
J. Portilla
60'
M
J. Portilla
60'
M
16
Jádson
53'
M
Jádson
53'
M
53
Dudu
60'
F
Dudu
60'
F
7
S. Mendoza
F
S. Mendoza
F
9
Kevin Viveros
F
Kevin Viveros
F
Bench
10
B. Zapelli
30'
M
B. Zapelli
30'
M
Best on the pitch
Gustavo Gómez
D · Palmeiras
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 49 pass
A. Giay
D · Palmeiras
7.70
· 41 pass
Allan
M · Palmeiras
7.60
· 22 pass
S. Mendoza
F · Atletico
7.50
1 shots
· 35 pass
Arthur Dias
D · Atletico
7.50
1 shots
· 54 pass
B. Zapelli
M · Atletico
7.20
· 18 pass
Palmeiras — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Miguel | G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 29 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Arthur | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 37 | 30% | — | — | — |
| Murilo | D | 47 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 41 | 40% | — | 2 | 1 |
| Gustavo Gómez | D | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 49 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Giay | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 41 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| Jhon Arias | M | 83 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 45 | 43% | — | — | — |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 72 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 47 | 38% | — | — | — |
| M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 45 | 39% | — | — | — | |
| Allan | M | 83 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 22 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| Ramón Sosa | F | 83 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 12 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| J. López | F | 51 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 16 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 18 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | — | — | — |
Atletico Paranaense — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Arthur Dias | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 47% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Aguirre | D | 80 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 35 | 34% | — | — | — |
| C. Terán | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 38% | — | — | — |
| L. Esquivel | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 46 | 36% | 6 | 1 | — |
| Luiz Gustavo | M | 80 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 30 | 28% | — | — | — |
| J. Portilla | M | 60 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 21 | 17% | — | 1 | — |
| Jádson | M | 53 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 22 | 17% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Dudu | F | 60 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | — | — | — |
| S. Mendoza | F | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 31% | 4 | — | — |
| Kevin Viveros | F | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| B. Zapelli | M | 30 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?
The final score was Palmeiras 1–0 Atletico Paranaense.
What did the model predict before Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?
The model assigned 45% probability to a Palmeiras win, 28% to a draw, and 25% to an Atletico Paranaense win.