Copa Libertadores
· Round of 16
August 13, 2026 00:00
J. Lopez
(ast. Marlon Freitas)
82'
(og)
90'+3
Carlos Miguel
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Palmeiras a 49% win probability (draw 26%, Cerro Porteno 24%). The final result was Palmeiras 1–1 Cerro Porteno. In 3 previous meetings, Palmeiras have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Cerro Porteno.
Match statistics
18
Total shots
5
7
Shots on target
1
1.55
Actual xG
0.25
1
Saves
5
61%
Possession
39%
7
Corners
2
17
Tackles
18
0
🟨 Yellow cards
5
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
40'
F. Dominguez
49'
M. Chaparro
53'
J. Torres
/
C. Dominguez
57'
A. D. Canete Torres
62'
A. G. Benitez
/
M. Chaparro
62'
M. Klimowicz
/
A. Gamarra
E. Martinez
/ Arthur Gabriel
68'
70'
Andreas Pereira
73'
J. Arias
/ R. Sosa
80'
Vitor Roque
/ Lucas Evangelista
80'
Allan Elias
/ Felipe Anderson
80'
⚽J. Lopez
· ast. Marlon Freitas
82'
86'
J. Morel
J. Lopez
/ G. Gomez
87'
89'
I. Aliseda
/
F. Dominguez
90'+3
(og)
Carlos Miguel⚽
90'+6
C. Bobadilla
Pre-match prediction
49.16%
Palmeiras
26.3%
X ←
24.53%
Cerro
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
26.3%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.84
1.55
-1.29
1.06
0.25
-0.81
Palmeiras dominated by xG (1.55 vs 0.25).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Carlos Miguel
1 ⚽
G
Carlos Miguel
1 ⚽
G
22
J. Piquerez
D
J. Piquerez
D
2
A. Barboza
D
A. Barboza
D
26
Murilo
D
Murilo
D
32
E. Martínez
68'
D
E. Martínez
68'
D
11
J. Arias
80'
M
J. Arias
80'
M
17
Marlon Freitas
1 👟
M
Marlon Freitas
1 👟
M
8
Andreas Pereira
73'
M
Andreas Pereira
73'
M
40
Allan
80'
M
Allan
80'
M
9
Vitor Roque
80'
F
Vitor Roque
80'
F
42
J. López
1 ⚽
87'
F
J. López
1 ⚽
87'
F
Bench
4
A. Giay
D
A. Giay
D
56
Arthur
22'
D
Arthur
22'
D
43
Benedetti
D
Benedetti
D
7
Felipe Anderson
10'
M
Felipe Anderson
10'
M
15
G. Gómez
11'
D
G. Gómez
11'
D
48
Larson
M
Larson
M
30
Lucas Evangelista
10'
M
Lucas Evangelista
10'
M
50
Luis Felipe
M
Luis Felipe
M
14
Marcelo Lomba
G
Marcelo Lomba
G
18
Maurício
M
Maurício
M
37
Riquelme Fillipi
F
Riquelme Fillipi
F
19
R. Sosa
10'
F
R. Sosa
10'
F
1
Manuel Roffo
G
Manuel Roffo
G
35
Marcelo Chaparro
62'
D
Marcelo Chaparro
62'
D
24
A. Cañete
D
A. Cañete
D
23
Gustavo Velázquez
D
Gustavo Velázquez
D
14
Lucas Quintana
D
Lucas Quintana
D
2
Fabricio Domínguez
89'
D
Fabricio Domínguez
89'
D
32
Cesar Bobadilla
M
Cesar Bobadilla
M
5
J. Morel
M
J. Morel
M
18
Ariel Gamarra
62'
M
Ariel Gamarra
62'
M
19
P. Vegetti
F
P. Vegetti
F
10
C. Domínguez
53'
F
C. Domínguez
53'
F
Bench
46
Carlos Chena
M
Carlos Chena
M
28
Carlos Franco
F
Carlos Franco
F
36
Fredy Noguera
F
Fredy Noguera
F
13
Guillermo Benitez
28'
D
Guillermo Benitez
28'
D
31
Ignacio Aliseda
9'
M
Ignacio Aliseda
9'
M
16
I. Ramírez
D
I. Ramírez
D
27
Jonatan Torres
37'
F
Jonatan Torres
37'
F
39
Josué Servín
D
Josué Servín
D
11
Juan Iturbe
F
Juan Iturbe
F
44
Lucas Merolla
D
Lucas Merolla
D
40
Mateo Klimowicz
28'
M
Mateo Klimowicz
28'
M
25
Roberto Fernández
G
Roberto Fernández
G
Best on the pitch
J. López
F · Palmeiras
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 24 pass
Murilo
D · Palmeiras
7.30
2 shots
· 72 pass
Allan
M · Palmeiras
7.30
3 shots
· 28 pass
Lucas Quintana
D · Cerro
7.30
· 26 pass
Gustavo Velázquez
D · Cerro
7.30
· 29 pass
A. Barboza
D · Palmeiras
7.20
1 shots
· 44 pass
Palmeiras — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Miguel | G | 90 | 6.00 | 1 | — | — | 17 | 13% | — | — | — |
| J. Piquerez | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 28% | 5 | — | — |
| A. Barboza | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| Murilo | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 72 | 59% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Martínez | D | 68 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 37 | 28% | — | — | — |
| J. Arias | M | 80 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 1 | 45 | 44% | — | — | — |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 73 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 23% | — | — | 1 |
| Allan | M | 80 | 7.30 | — | — | 3 | 28 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| Vitor Roque | F | 80 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 12 | 8% | — | — | — |
| J. López | F | 87 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 24 | 18% | 4 | — | — |
| Arthur | D | 22 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | — | — | — |
| G. Gómez | D | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 10 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Sosa | F | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
Cerro Porteno — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Roffo | G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 30 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Chaparro | D | 62 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | 2 | 1 | — |
| A. Cañete | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 14% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Gustavo Velázquez | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Quintana | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 26 | 17% | 5 | — | — |
| Fabricio Domínguez | D | 89 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 15% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Cesar Bobadilla | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 16% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Morel | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 17% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Ariel Gamarra | M | 62 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 26 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| P. Vegetti | F | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 16 | 11% | — | — | — |
| C. Domínguez | F | 53 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Guillermo Benitez | D | 28 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Ignacio Aliseda | M | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Jonatan Torres | F | 37 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 10 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Mateo Klimowicz | M | 28 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno?
The final score was Palmeiras 1–1 Cerro Porteno.
What did the model predict before Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno?
The model assigned 49% probability to a Palmeiras win, 26% to a draw, and 24% to an Cerro Porteno win.