Palmeiras 4–1 Corinthians — pre-match prediction — Brasileirão Série A — October 11, 2026

← Brasileirão Série A

Brasileirão Série A · Regular Season - 30 October 11, 2026 22:30 Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo

Palmeiras

#2 · 70 pts

4 – 1

Final score

Corinthians

#18 · 33 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Palmeiras

Alexander Barboza (ast. Lucas Evangelista) 16'

Agustin Giay (ast. Jhon Arias) 45'+1

Matheus Bidu 46' (og)

Agustin Giay 51'

90'+1 (ast. Vitinho) Gustavo Henrique

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Palmeiras a 78% win probability (draw 11%, Corinthians 9%). The final result was Palmeiras 4–1 Corinthians. In 3 previous meetings, Palmeiras have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 2 wins for Corinthians.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.68

Actual xG

0.77

Saves

55%

Possession

45%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

Jhon Arias

15'

Raniele

⚽Alexander Barboza · ast. Lucas Evangelista

16'

⚽Agustin Giay · ast. Jhon Arias

45'+1

⚽Matheus Bidu (og)

46'

48'

Memphis Depay

Agustin Giay

49'

⚽Agustin Giay

51'

57'

Allan / André Carrillo ↕

57'

Vitinho / Breno Bidon ↕

59'

Gabriel Paulista

65'

Vitinho

↕ José Manuel López / Maurício Magalhães Prado

69'

↕ Lucas Evangelista / Emiliano Martínez

69'

↕ Vitor Roque / Ramon Sosa

69'

André Ramalho / André ↕

69'

Pedro Raul / Yuri Alberto ↕

Gustavo Gómez

72'

↕ Ramon Sosa / Paulo Henrique Sampaio Filho

77'

⚽Paulo Henrique Sampaio Filho (missed pen.)

81'

83'

Dieguinho / Raniele ↕

↕ Gustavo Gómez / Bruno Fuchs

83'

90'+1

ast. Vitinho · Gustavo Henrique⚽

Pre-match prediction

78.46%

Palmeiras ←

11.6%

9.93%

Corinthians

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Palmeiras) 78.46% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Palmeiras

3.30

2.68

-0.63

Corinthians

0.91

0.77

-0.14

Palmeiras dominated by xG (2.68 vs 0.77). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Flamengo	33	73
2	Palmeiras	33	70
3	Cruzeiro	33	57
4	Fluminense	33	54
5	Atletico Paranaense	33	54
6	Bahia	33	53
7	Atletico-MG	33	50
8	Santos	33	47
9	RB Bragantino	33	44
10	Sao Paulo	33	43
11	Botafogo	33	39
12	Coritiba	32	39
13	Vasco DA Gama	32	38
14	Vitoria	32	38
15	Gremio	33	37
16	Mirassol	32	37
17	Internacional	33	35
18	Corinthians	32	33
19	Remo	33	29
20	Chapecoense-sc	32	21

Lineups

Palmeiras 3-4-2-1

Carlos Miguel G 6.26

A. Barboza 1 ⚽ D 8.59

G. Gómez 83' D 6.94

Murilo D 6.22

J. Piquerez M 7.02

Lucas Evangelista 1 👟 69' M 7.62

Andreas Pereira M 7.14

A. Giay 2 ⚽ M 9.21

J. Arias 1 👟 M 7.70

J. López 69' M 6.68

Vitor Roque 69' F 6.43

Bench

Arthur D 0.00

Bruno Fuchs 7' D 6.60

E. Martínez 21' M 6.50

Felipe Anderson M 0.00

Khellven D 0.00

Larson M 0.00

Luis Felipe M 0.00

Marcelo Lomba G 0.00

Marlon Freitas M 0.00

Maurício 21' M 6.08

Paulinho 13' F 6.58

R. Sosa 8' F 6.50

Corinthians 4-1-3-2

Hugo Souza G 6.83

Matheus Bidu 1 ⚽ D 4.91

Gustavo Henrique 1 ⚽ D 6.12

Gabriel Paulista D 5.59

Matheuzinho D 6.48

Raniele 83' M 5.42

Andre 69' M 5.70

A. Carrillo 57' M 6.18

Breno 57' M 5.92

M. Depay F 5.97

Yuri Alberto 69' F 6.30

Bench

Allan 33' M 6.12

André Ramalho 21' D 5.78

Charles M 0.00

Dieguinho 7' M 5.81

F. Angileri D 0.00

Guilherme Inácio F 0.00

I. Machado D 0.00

J. Lingard M 0.00

João Pedro D 0.00

Kauê Camargo G 0.00

Pedro Raul 21' F 6.41

Vitinho 1 👟 33' F 6.27

Best on the pitch

A. Giay

M · Palmeiras

9.21

2 ⚽

2 shots · 31 pass

A. Barboza

D · Palmeiras

8.59

1 ⚽

2 shots · 56 pass

J. Arias

M · Palmeiras

7.70

1 👟

5 shots · 41 pass

Lucas Evangelista

M · Palmeiras

7.62

1 👟

1 shots · 45 pass

Andreas Pereira

M · Palmeiras

7.14

2 shots · 45 pass

J. Piquerez

M · Palmeiras

7.02

· 56 pass

Palmeiras — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Carlos Miguel	G	90	6.26	—	—	0	19	9%	0	—	—
A. Barboza	D	90	8.59	1	—	2	56	49%	3	—	—
G. Gómez	D	83	6.94	—	—	1	47	42%	2	1	—
Murilo	D	90	6.22	—	—	0	44	36%	0	—	—
J. Piquerez	M	90	7.02	—	—	0	56	47%	3	—	—
Lucas Evangelista	M	69	7.62	—	1	1	45	43%	2	—	—
Andreas Pereira	M	90	7.14	—	—	2	45	41%	1	—	—
A. Giay	M	90	9.21	2	—	2	31	27%	2	1	—
J. Arias	M	90	7.70	—	1	5	41	38%	0	1	—
J. López	M	69	6.68	—	—	3	21	16%	1	—	—
Vitor Roque	F	69	6.43	—	—	3	14	11%	1	—	—
Bruno Fuchs	D	7	6.60	—	—	0	4	4%	0	—	—
E. Martínez	M	21	6.50	—	—	0	8	8%	0	—	—
Maurício	M	21	6.08	—	—	1	14	13%	0	—	—
Paulinho	F	13	6.58	—	—	2	10	10%	0	—	—
R. Sosa	F	8	6.50	—	—	0	0	0%	0	—	—

Corinthians — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Hugo Souza	G	90	6.83	—	—	0	30	20%	0	—	—
Matheus Bidu	D	90	4.91	1	—	1	38	31%	0	—	—
Gustavo Henrique	D	90	6.12	1	—	1	43	39%	0	—	—
Gabriel Paulista	D	90	5.59	—	—	0	32	29%	0	1	—
Matheuzinho	D	90	6.48	—	—	3	43	35%	2	—	—
Raniele	M	83	5.42	—	—	1	31	26%	3	1	—
Andre	M	69	5.70	—	—	0	19	13%	0	—	—
A. Carrillo	M	57	6.18	—	—	1	34	29%	0	—	—
Breno	M	57	5.92	—	—	0	14	11%	4	—	—
M. Depay	F	90	5.97	—	—	1	40	33%	0	1	—
Yuri Alberto	F	69	6.30	—	—	3	3	2%	0	—	—
Allan	M	33	6.12	—	—	0	20	17%	0	—	—
André Ramalho	D	21	5.78	—	—	0	14	14%	1	—	—
Dieguinho	M	7	5.81	—	—	0	5	5%	0	—	—
Pedro Raul	F	21	6.41	—	—	0	2	2%	0	—	—
Vitinho	F	33	6.27	—	1	1	8	8%	0	1	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Corinthians?

The final score was Palmeiras 4–1 Corinthians.

What did the model predict before Palmeiras vs Corinthians?

The model assigned 78% probability to a Palmeiras win, 11% to a draw, and 9% to an Corinthians win.