Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 16
May 17, 2026 02:00
Felipe Anderson
20'
11'
(ast. Christian)
K. Arroyo
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Palmeiras a 43% win probability (draw 26%, Cruzeiro 30%). The final result was Palmeiras 1–1 Cruzeiro.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
8
2
Shots on target
4
0.93
Actual xG
0.42
3
Saves
1
47%
Possession
53%
6
Corners
4
18
Tackles
21
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
11'
K. Arroyo
11'
ast. Christian ·
K. Arroyo⚽
R. Sosa
/ Mauricio
17'
⚽Felipe Anderson
20'
41'
Matheus Pereira
Felipe Anderson
/ Lucas Evangelista
44'
J. Lopez
72'
75'
Kenji
/
K. Arroyo
75'
Otavio Costa
Andreas Pereira
/ Paulinho
77'
Arthur Gabriel
/ Jefte
77'
A. Giay
/ Khellven
77'
Murilo
88'
89'
L. Sinisterra
/
Matheus Pereira
90'+2
Lucas Silva
90'
Lucas Silva
/
Christian
Pre-match prediction
43.12%
Palmeiras
26.25%
X ←
30.63%
Cruzeiro
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
26.25%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.24
0.93
-0.31
1.15
0.42
-0.73
Palmeiras dominated by xG (0.93 vs 0.42).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Carlos Miguel
G
Carlos Miguel
G
56
Arthur Gabriel
77'
D
Arthur Gabriel
77'
D
26
Murilo
D
Murilo
D
15
G. Gómez
D
G. Gómez
D
4
Agustín Giay
77'
D
Agustín Giay
77'
D
7
Felipe Anderson
1 ⚽
44'
M
Felipe Anderson
1 ⚽
44'
M
17
Marlon Freitas
M
Marlon Freitas
M
8
Andreas Pereira
77'
M
Andreas Pereira
77'
M
11
Jhon Arias
M
Jhon Arias
M
42
J. López
F
J. López
F
19
R. Sosa
17'
F
R. Sosa
17'
F
Bench
32
Emiliano Martínez
M
Emiliano Martínez
M
45
Erick Belé
M
Erick Belé
M
6
Jefté
20'
D
Jefté
20'
D
12
Khellven
20'
D
Khellven
20'
D
48
Larson
M
Larson
M
30
Lucas Evangelista
53'
M
Lucas Evangelista
53'
M
31
Luighi Hanri
F
Luighi Hanri
F
50
Luis Pacheco
M
Luis Pacheco
M
14
Marcelo Lomba
G
Marcelo Lomba
G
18
Maurício
80'
M
Maurício
80'
M
10
Paulinho
20'
F
Paulinho
20'
F
37
Riquelme Fillipi
F
Riquelme Fillipi
F
81
Otávio Costa
G
Otávio Costa
G
6
Kaiki
D
Kaiki
D
34
Jonathan Jesus
D
Jonathan Jesus
D
15
Fabrício Bruno
D
Fabrício Bruno
D
23
Fágner
D
Fágner
D
29
Lucas Romero
M
Lucas Romero
M
11
Gerson
M
Gerson
M
88
Christian
1 👟
M
Christian
1 👟
M
10
Matheus Pereira
89'
M
Matheus Pereira
89'
M
99
K. Arroyo
1 ⚽
75'
M
K. Arroyo
1 ⚽
75'
M
19
Kaio Jorge
F
Kaio Jorge
F
Bench
91
Chico da Costa
F
Chico da Costa
F
77
Japa
M
Japa
M
43
João Marcelo
D
João Marcelo
D
70
Kaique Kenji
22'
F
Kaique Kenji
22'
F
2
Kauã Moraes
D
Kauã Moraes
D
16
Lucas Silva
7'
M
Lucas Silva
7'
M
25
Lucas Villalba
D
Lucas Villalba
D
17
Luis Sinisterra
8'
F
Luis Sinisterra
8'
F
7
Marquinhos
F
Marquinhos
F
31
Matheus Cunha
G
Matheus Cunha
G
40
Rhuan Gabriel
M
Rhuan Gabriel
M
94
Wanderson
F
Wanderson
F
Best on the pitch
K. Arroyo
M · Cruzeiro
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 16 pass
Jonathan Jesus
D · Cruzeiro
7.60
3 shots
· 44 pass
Felipe Anderson
M · Palmeiras
7.50
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 10 pass
Marlon Freitas
M · Palmeiras
7.50
· 38 pass
Otávio Costa
G · Cruzeiro
7.30
· 24 pass
Paulinho
F · Palmeiras
7.20
1 shots
· 12 pass
Palmeiras — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Miguel | G | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Arthur Gabriel | D | 77 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| Murilo | D | 97 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 32 | 30% | 2 | 1 | — |
| G. Gómez | D | 97 | 6.00 | — | — | 2 | 39 | 33% | — | — | — |
| Agustín Giay | D | 77 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 30 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 44 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 3 | 10 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 97 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 38 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 77 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 31% | — | — | — |
| Jhon Arias | M | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 26% | 3 | — | — |
| J. López | F | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 17% | 3 | 1 | — |
| R. Sosa | F | 17 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Jefté | D | 20 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| Khellven | D | 20 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 53 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 29 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| Maurício | M | 80 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 31 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Paulinho | F | 20 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 12% | — | — | — |
Cruzeiro — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otávio Costa | G | 97 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 20% | — | 1 | — |
| Kaiki | D | 97 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 31 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| Jonathan Jesus | D | 97 | 7.60 | — | — | 3 | 44 | 41% | 7 | — | — |
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 97 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 44 | 36% | 2 | — | — |
| Fágner | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Romero | M | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 61 | 50% | 3 | — | — |
| Gerson | M | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 55 | 47% | 2 | — | — |
| Christian | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | 1 | — | 29 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 89 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 25% | — | 1 | — |
| K. Arroyo | M | 75 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 16 | 15% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Kaio Jorge | F | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 21 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Kaique Kenji | F | 22 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Silva | M | 7 | — | — | — | — | 9 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| Luis Sinisterra | F | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
The final score was Palmeiras 1–1 Cruzeiro.
What did the model predict before Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
The model assigned 43% probability to a Palmeiras win, 26% to a draw, and 30% to an Cruzeiro win.