82'
(ast. Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado)
Hércules Pereira do Nascimento
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Palmeiras a 53% win probability (draw 28%, Fluminense 18%). The final result was Palmeiras 0–1 Fluminense. In 3 previous meetings, Palmeiras have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Fluminense.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
4
1
Shots on target
2
0.64
Actual xG
0.24
1
Saves
1
54%
Possession
46%
2
Corners
4
17
Tackles
21
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
31'
Ignácio da Silva Oliveira
/
Julian Millan
45'
Kevin Serna
/
Jefferson David Savarino Quintero
Alexander Barboza
49'
56'
Hércules Pereira do Nascimento
José Manuel López
/ Ramon Sosa
62'
Jhon Arias
76'
79'
Samuel Xavier Brito
/
Claudio Rodrigues Gomes
79'
Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado
/
Agustín Canobbio
82'
ast. Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado ·
Hércules Pereira do Nascimento⚽
Andreas Pereira
/ Maurício Magalhães Prado
83'
Jhon Arias
/ Paulo Henrique Sampaio Filho
87'
Agustin Giay
/ Khellven Douglas Silva Oliveira
87'
87'
Luciano Acosta
/
Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima
Pre-match prediction
53.49%
Palmeiras
28.48%
X
18.02%
Fluminense ←
we assigned to the actual result (Fluminense)
18.02%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.27
0.64
-0.63
0.54
0.24
-0.3
Palmeiras dominated by xG (0.64 vs 0.24).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Carlos Miguel
G
Carlos Miguel
G
2
A. Barboza
D
A. Barboza
D
15
G. Gómez
D
G. Gómez
D
26
Murilo
D
Murilo
D
22
J. Piquerez
M
J. Piquerez
M
17
Marlon Freitas
M
Marlon Freitas
M
30
Lucas Evangelista
M
Lucas Evangelista
M
4
A. Giay
87'
M
A. Giay
87'
M
8
Andreas Pereira
83'
M
Andreas Pereira
83'
M
11
J. Arias
87'
M
J. Arias
87'
M
42
J. López
62'
F
J. López
62'
F
Bench
56
Arthur
D
Arthur
D
43
Benedetti
D
Benedetti
D
3
Bruno Fuchs
D
Bruno Fuchs
D
32
E. Martínez
M
E. Martínez
M
7
Felipe Anderson
M
Felipe Anderson
M
12
Khellven
3'
D
Khellven
3'
D
48
Larson
M
Larson
M
50
Luis Felipe
M
Luis Felipe
M
14
Marcelo Lomba
G
Marcelo Lomba
G
18
Maurício
7'
M
Maurício
7'
M
10
Paulinho
3'
F
Paulinho
3'
F
19
R. Sosa
28'
F
R. Sosa
28'
F
1
Fábio
G
Fábio
G
13
Guilherme Arana
D
Guilherme Arana
D
29
J. Millán
31'
D
J. Millán
31'
D
3
Thiago Silva
D
Thiago Silva
D
23
Guga
79'
D
Guga
79'
D
16
Nonato
M
Nonato
M
35
Hércules
1 ⚽
M
Hércules
1 ⚽
M
17
A. Canobbio
79'
M
A. Canobbio
79'
M
10
Ganso
87'
M
Ganso
87'
M
11
Jefferson Savarino
46'
M
Jefferson Savarino
46'
M
7
Hulk
F
Hulk
F
Bench
14
Germán Cano
F
Germán Cano
F
4
Ignacio
59'
D
Ignacio
59'
D
21
Igor Rabello
D
Igor Rabello
D
90
Kevin Serna
44'
F
Kevin Serna
44'
F
32
L. Acosta
3'
M
L. Acosta
3'
M
94
Otávio
M
Otávio
M
6
Renê
D
Renê
D
19
Rodrigo Castillo
F
Rodrigo Castillo
F
2
Samuel Xavier
11'
D
Samuel Xavier
11'
D
98
Vitor Eudes
G
Vitor Eudes
G
34
Wesley Nata
1 👟
11'
F
Wesley Nata
1 👟
11'
F
30
Yeferson Soteldo
F
Yeferson Soteldo
F
Best on the pitch
Hércules
M · Fluminense
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 35 pass
Marlon Freitas
M · Palmeiras
7.20
1 shots
· 91 pass
Thiago Silva
D · Fluminense
7.20
1 shots
· 75 pass
J. Millán
D · Fluminense
7.12
· 28 pass
Lucas Evangelista
M · Palmeiras
7.07
· 86 pass
G. Gómez
D · Palmeiras
6.94
· 45 pass
Palmeiras — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Miguel | G | 90 | 6.40 | — | — | 0 | 16 | 11% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Barboza | D | 90 | 6.62 | — | — | 2 | 57 | 45% | 2 | 1 | — |
| G. Gómez | D | 90 | 6.94 | — | — | 0 | 45 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| Murilo | D | 90 | 6.80 | — | — | 0 | 60 | 53% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Piquerez | M | 90 | 6.22 | — | — | 2 | 41 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 91 | 87% | 0 | — | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 90 | 7.07 | — | — | 0 | 86 | 84% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Giay | M | 87 | 6.74 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 83 | 6.67 | — | — | 2 | 34 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Arias | M | 87 | 6.52 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 24% | 7 | 1 | — |
| J. López | F | 62 | 6.21 | — | — | 0 | 22 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Khellven | D | 3 | 6.29 | — | — | 0 | 4 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
| Maurício | M | 7 | 6.02 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 6% | 0 | — | — |
| Paulinho | F | 3 | 6.30 | — | — | 0 | 6 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| R. Sosa | F | 28 | 6.42 | — | — | 2 | 10 | 9% | 0 | — | — |
Fluminense — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fábio | G | 90 | 6.10 | — | — | 0 | 21 | 14% | 0 | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 90 | 6.39 | — | — | 1 | 55 | 45% | 4 | — | — |
| J. Millán | D | 31 | 7.12 | — | — | 0 | 28 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| Thiago Silva | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 75 | 70% | 1 | — | — |
| Guga | D | 79 | 6.71 | — | — | 0 | 48 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Nonato | M | 90 | 6.88 | — | — | 0 | 66 | 63% | 3 | — | — |
| Hércules | M | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 35 | 32% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Canobbio | M | 79 | 6.05 | — | — | 0 | 30 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Ganso | M | 87 | 6.23 | — | — | 0 | 67 | 55% | 3 | — | — |
| Jefferson Savarino | M | 46 | 6.60 | — | — | 0 | 9 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Hulk | F | 90 | 6.28 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 12% | 0 | — | — |
| Ignacio | D | 59 | 6.84 | — | — | 0 | 33 | 31% | 3 | — | — |
| Kevin Serna | F | 44 | 6.48 | — | — | 0 | 21 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Acosta | M | 3 | 6.47 | — | — | 0 | 5 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| Samuel Xavier | D | 11 | 6.44 | — | — | 0 | 8 | 7% | 0 | — | — |
| Wesley Nata | F | 11 | 6.68 | — | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
The final score was Palmeiras 0–1 Fluminense.
What did the model predict before Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
The model assigned 53% probability to a Palmeiras win, 28% to a draw, and 18% to an Fluminense win.