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Palmeiras - Fluminense

Copa Libertadores October 20, 2026 22:00 Unilever Stadium Shintomi, Shintomi
Palmeiras
#2 · 11 pts
vs
Fluminense
#2 · 8 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
54.94%
Win
Palmeiras
26.23%
Draw
18.83%
Win
Fluminense
1.41
Expected xG
0.66

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (18.34%)
1X2 Result
1 55%
X 26%
2 19%
Double Chance
1X 81%
X2 45%
12 74%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 63%
Over 2.5 34%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Palmeiras a 54% win probability, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Fluminense. Expected goals are 1.4 for Palmeiras and 0.7 for Fluminense (total 2.1), with a 63% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 18.34% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Palmeiras have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Fluminense.

Season Stats

Palmeiras
5W 3D 2L
Fluminense
3W 4D 3L
Averages per game
1.5
Goals
1.1
0.9
Conceded
1.0
5.6
Shots OT
3.9
6.4
Corners
3.1
56%
Poss.
63%
Percentages
70%
O 1.5
80%
30%
O 2.5
40%
60%
BTTS
60%
30%
Clean Sht
30%
ℹ Based on the last 10 matches in Copa Libertadores. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
10%
O 3.5
60%
BTTS
Palmeiras
3W 1D 1L · at home
Fluminense
0W 3D 2L · away
1.6
gls/g
0.6
0.8
Conceded
1.2
60%
Win %
0%
80%
Win or Draw
60%
60%
O 1.5
80%
40%
O 2.5
20%
20%
O 3.5
0%
60%
BTTS
60%
20%
Clean Sht
20%
20%
Failed to Score
40%
last 5
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Palmeiras Fluminense →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 12.6% 8.3% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% —
1 17.8% 11.8% 3.9% 0.9% 0.1% —
2 12.5% 8.3% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% —
3 5.9% 3.9% 1.3% 0.3% — —
4 2.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% — —
5 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

Palmeiras Palmeiras
L LDU de Quito 3–2
W LDU de Quito 1–0
W Cerro Porteno 0–1
D Cerro Porteno 1–1
W Junior 4–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 47%
Fluminense Fluminense
L Platense 2–1
W Platense 2–0
D Independ. Rivadavia 1–1
D Independ. Rivadavia 0–0
W Deportivo La Guaira 3–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 19%

Playing profile

Palmeiras Palmeiras
Attack
45
Defence
78
Form
64
Fluminense Fluminense
Attack
36
Defence
62
Form
56
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Palmeiras
0
Draw
1
Fluminense
15 Aug 2026 Brasileirão Série A 2–3
26 Feb 2026 Brasileirão Série A 2–1
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
The model gives Palmeiras a 54% win probability, 26% for a draw, and 18% for an Fluminense win.
How many goals are expected in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Expected goals: Palmeiras 1.4, Fluminense 0.7 (total 2.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 63%.
What is the most likely score in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 18.34%.