Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 9
April 03, 2026 04:30
Marlon Freitas
(ast. Andreas Pereira)
44'
Marlon Freitas
72'
54'
(ast. Gustavo Martins)
Carlos Vinicius
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Palmeiras a 48% win probability (draw 26%, Gremio 24%). The final result was Palmeiras 2–1 Gremio.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
8
4
Shots on target
5
0.64
Actual xG
0.59
4
Saves
2
60%
Possession
40%
8
Corners
2
13
Tackles
14
0
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
40'
Pedro Gabriel
⚽Marlon Freitas
· ast. Andreas Pereira
44'
46'
Dodi
/
E. Noriega
46'
F. Amuzu
/
Tete
46'
Gabriel Mec
/
M. Monsalve
54'
ast. Gustavo Martins ·
Carlos Vinicius⚽
Jefte
/ Arthur Gabriel
67'
Mauricio
/ Felipe Anderson
71'
J. Lopez
/ R. Sosa
72'
⚽Marlon Freitas
72'
74'
Gustavo Martins
76'
M. Braithwaite
/
J. Enamorado
80'
Bernardo Zortea
/
J. Nardoni
Allan Elias
/ Lucas Evangelista
84'
J. Arias
/ Khellven
84'
86'
Dodi
Pre-match prediction
48.65%
Palmeiras ←
26.66%
X
24.69%
Gremio
we assigned to the actual result (Palmeiras)
48.65%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.03
0.64
-1.39
0.96
0.59
-0.37
xG dominance was balanced (0.64 – 0.59).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Carlos Miguel
G
Carlos Miguel
G
6
Jefté
67'
D
Jefté
67'
D
26
Murilo
D
Murilo
D
3
D
4
Agustín Giay
D
Agustín Giay
D
8
Andreas Pereira
1 👟
M
Andreas Pereira
1 👟
M
17
Marlon Freitas
2 ⚽
M
Marlon Freitas
2 ⚽
M
11
Jhon Arias
84'
M
Jhon Arias
84'
M
18
Maurício
71'
M
Maurício
71'
M
40
Allan
84'
M
Allan
84'
M
42
J. López
72'
F
J. López
72'
F
Bench
56
Arthur Gabriel
23'
D
Arthur Gabriel
23'
D
45
Erick Belé
M
Erick Belé
M
7
Felipe Anderson
19'
M
Felipe Anderson
19'
M
15
G. Gómez
D
G. Gómez
D
12
Khellven
12'
D
Khellven
12'
D
30
Lucas Evangelista
12'
M
Lucas Evangelista
12'
M
31
Luighi Hanri
F
Luighi Hanri
F
50
Luis Pacheco
M
Luis Pacheco
M
19
R. Sosa
18'
F
R. Sosa
18'
F
1
G
54
Pedro Gabriel
D
Pedro Gabriel
D
44
Viery
D
Viery
D
6
Gustavo Martins
1 👟
D
Gustavo Martins
1 👟
D
7
Cristian Pavón
D
Cristian Pavón
D
19
Erick Noriega
45'
M
Erick Noriega
45'
M
99
José Enamorado
76'
M
José Enamorado
76'
M
11
Miguel Monsalve
45'
M
Miguel Monsalve
45'
M
5
J. Nardoni
80'
M
J. Nardoni
80'
M
21
Tetê
45'
M
Tetê
45'
M
95
Carlos Vinícius
1 ⚽
F
Carlos Vinícius
1 ⚽
F
Bench
17
Dodi
45'
M
Dodi
45'
M
9
F. Amuzu
45'
F
F. Amuzu
45'
F
37
Gabriel Mec
45'
F
Gabriel Mec
45'
F
14
Marcos Rocha
D
Marcos Rocha
D
22
Martin Braithwaite
14'
F
Martin Braithwaite
14'
F
65
Riquelme Freitas
M
Riquelme Freitas
M
3
Wagner Leonardo
D
Wagner Leonardo
D
4
Walter Kannemann
D
Walter Kannemann
D
50
Zortéa
10'
M
Zortéa
10'
M
Best on the pitch
Marlon Freitas
M · Palmeiras
9.00
2 ⚽
3 shots
· 71 pass
Carlos Vinícius
F · Gremio
8.00
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 12 pass
Andreas Pereira
M · Palmeiras
7.70
1 👟
1 shots
· 79 pass
Viery
D · Gremio
7.30
· 49 pass
Carlos Miguel
G · Palmeiras
7.20
· 15 pass
J. López
F · Palmeiras
7.20
1 shots
· 22 pass
Palmeiras — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Miguel | G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 15 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Jefté | D | 67 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 21% | 3 | — | — |
| Murilo | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 48 | 43% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 47 | 43% | 1 | — | — | |
| Agustín Giay | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 45 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 90 | 7.70 | — | 1 | 1 | 79 | 70% | 2 | — | — |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 90 | 9.00 | 2 | — | 3 | 71 | 59% | 1 | — | — |
| Jhon Arias | M | 84 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| Maurício | M | 71 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 26 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | 84 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| J. López | F | 72 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| Arthur Gabriel | D | 23 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 19 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Khellven | D | 12 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 12 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Sosa | F | 18 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
Gremio — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 38 | 24% | — | — | — | |
| Pedro Gabriel | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 24% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Viery | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 49 | 36% | 2 | — | — |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 40 | 37% | — | 1 | — |
| Cristian Pavón | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 29% | 3 | — | — |
| Erick Noriega | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| José Enamorado | M | 76 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Miguel Monsalve | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 13 | 13% | — | — | — |
| J. Nardoni | M | 80 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Tetê | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 90 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 3 | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Dodi | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | 2 | 1 | — |
| F. Amuzu | F | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Mec | F | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| Martin Braithwaite | F | 14 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Zortéa | M | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Gremio?
The final score was Palmeiras 2–1 Gremio.
What did the model predict before Palmeiras vs Gremio?
The model assigned 48% probability to a Palmeiras win, 26% to a draw, and 24% to an Gremio win.