Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 14
May 02, 2026 23:30
Mauricio
(ast. Andreas Pereira)
64'
26'
B. Rollheiser
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Palmeiras a 51% win probability (draw 28%, Santos 19%). The final result was Palmeiras 1–1 Santos.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
8
3
Shots on target
4
2.10
Actual xG
1.15
3
Saves
2
54%
Possession
46%
9
Corners
4
14
Tackles
23
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
26'
B. Rollheiser⚽
32'
Gabriel Brazao
Khellven
/ Allan Elias
46'
Lucas Evangelista
/ R. Sosa
60'
⚽Mauricio
· ast. Andreas Pereira
64'
68'
Willian Arao
/
C. Oliva
Mauricio
/ Paulinho
74'
Andreas Pereira
/ Luis Pacheco
74'
G. Gomez
/ E. Martinez
80'
81'
Moises
/
A. Barreal
81'
Rony
/
Gabriel Barbosa
86'
Mateus Xavier
/
B. Rollheiser
86'
Ze Rafael
/
Gabriel Bontempo
90'+3
Luis Pacheco
90'+9
Pre-match prediction
51.78%
Palmeiras
28.33%
X ←
19.89%
Santos
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
28.33%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.25
2.10
+0.85
0.66
1.15
+0.49
Palmeiras dominated by xG (2.10 vs 1.15).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Carlos Miguel
G
Carlos Miguel
G
56
Arthur Gabriel
D
Arthur Gabriel
D
26
Murilo
D
Murilo
D
15
G. Gómez
80'
D
G. Gómez
80'
D
12
Khellven
45'
D
Khellven
45'
D
17
Marlon Freitas
M
Marlon Freitas
M
30
Lucas Evangelista
60'
M
Lucas Evangelista
60'
M
11
Jhon Arias
M
Jhon Arias
M
8
Andreas Pereira
1 👟
74'
M
Andreas Pereira
1 👟
74'
M
18
Maurício
1 ⚽
74'
M
Maurício
1 ⚽
74'
M
42
J. López
F
J. López
F
Bench
4
Agustín Giay
D
Agustín Giay
D
40
Allan
45'
F
Allan
45'
F
7
Felipe Anderson
M
Felipe Anderson
M
6
Jefté
D
Jefté
D
31
Luighi Hanri
F
Luighi Hanri
F
50
Luis Pacheco
16'
M
Luis Pacheco
16'
M
19
R. Sosa
30'
F
R. Sosa
30'
F
77
Gabriel Brazão
G
Gabriel Brazão
G
31
Gonzalo Escobar
D
Gonzalo Escobar
D
14
Luan Peres
D
Luan Peres
D
4
Lucas Veríssimo
D
Lucas Veríssimo
D
18
Igor Vinícius
D
Igor Vinícius
D
5
João Schmidt
M
João Schmidt
M
28
Christian Oliva
68'
M
Christian Oliva
68'
M
22
Á. Barreal
81'
M
Á. Barreal
81'
M
32
Benjamín Rollheiser
1 ⚽
86'
M
Benjamín Rollheiser
1 ⚽
86'
M
49
Gabriel Bontempo
86'
M
Gabriel Bontempo
86'
M
9
Gabriel Barbosa
81'
F
Gabriel Barbosa
81'
F
Bench
1
Diogenes
G
Diogenes
G
2
Mayke
D
Mayke
D
21
Moisés
9'
F
Moisés
9'
F
30
M. Terceros
M
M. Terceros
M
11
Rony
9'
F
Rony
9'
F
15
Willian Arão
22'
M
Willian Arão
22'
M
Best on the pitch
Benjamín Rollheiser
M · Santos
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 56 pass
Marlon Freitas
M · Palmeiras
7.50
1 shots
· 67 pass
R. Sosa
F · Palmeiras
7.20
· 12 pass
G. Gómez
D · Palmeiras
7.20
· 51 pass
Igor Vinícius
D · Santos
7.20
1 shots
· 26 pass
Lucas Veríssimo
D · Santos
7.20
· 30 pass
Palmeiras — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Miguel | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 29 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Arthur Gabriel | D | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | 2 | 35 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Murilo | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 52 | 41% | — | — | — |
| G. Gómez | D | 80 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 51 | 47% | 2 | — | — |
| Khellven | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 25% | 2 | — | — |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 67 | 63% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 60 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 33 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| Jhon Arias | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 21 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 74 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 21 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| Maurício | M | 74 | 6.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 27 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| J. López | F | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Allan | F | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 13% | 3 | — | — |
| Luis Pacheco | M | 16 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 13% | — | 1 | — |
| R. Sosa | F | 30 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
Santos — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Brazão | G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 20% | — | 1 | — |
| Gonzalo Escobar | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 49 | 45% | 1 | — | — |
| Luan Peres | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| Lucas Veríssimo | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 30 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Igor Vinícius | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 23% | 9 | — | — |
| João Schmidt | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 39 | 34% | 2 | — | — |
| Christian Oliva | M | 68 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 30 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| Á. Barreal | M | 81 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 26 | 21% | 3 | — | — |
| Benjamín Rollheiser | M | 86 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 56 | 48% | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Bontempo | M | 86 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 38 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| Gabriel Barbosa | F | 81 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Moisés | F | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rony | F | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Willian Arão | M | 22 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Santos?
The final score was Palmeiras 1–1 Santos.
What did the model predict before Palmeiras vs Santos?
The model assigned 51% probability to a Palmeiras win, 28% to a draw, and 19% to an Santos win.