Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 2
April 17, 2026 00:00
Murilo
(ast. Allan)
27'
José López
80'
(pen.)
41'
(ast. Irven Avila)
Juan Gonzalez
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Palmeiras a 49% win probability (draw 27%, Sporting Cristal 23%). The final result was Palmeiras 2–1 Sporting Cristal. In 1 previous meetings, Palmeiras have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Sporting Cristal.
Match statistics
15
Total shots
4
6
Shots on target
2
2.16
Actual xG
0.72
1
Saves
4
65%
Possession
35%
8
Corners
3
11
Tackles
14
0
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽Murilo
· ast. Allan
27'
41'
ast. Irven Avila ·
Juan Gonzalez⚽
59'
Santiago González
/
Maxloren Castro
59'
Felipe Vizeu
/
Irven Avila
64'
Ramón Sosa
/ Luighi Hanri
70'
Agustín Giay
/ Arthur Gabriel
70'
70'
Joao Cuenca
/
Juan Gonzalez
73'
Santiago González
77'
79'
Diego Enríquez
⚽José López
(pen.)
80'
85'
Mateo Rodríguez
/
Gustavo Cazonatti
85'
Cristian Benavente
/
Leandro Sosa
Allan
/ Lucas Evangelista
88'
Jhon Arias
/ Felipe Anderson
88'
90'+3
Felipe Vizeu
Pre-match prediction
49.09%
Palmeiras ←
27.35%
X
23.55%
Sporting
we assigned to the actual result (Palmeiras)
49.09%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.52
2.16
+0.64
0.97
0.72
-0.25
Palmeiras dominated by xG (2.16 vs 0.72).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Carlos Miguel
G
Carlos Miguel
G
12
Khellven
D
Khellven
D
26
Murilo
1 ⚽
D
Murilo
1 ⚽
D
15
Gustavo Gómez
D
Gustavo Gómez
D
4
A. Giay
70'
D
A. Giay
70'
D
17
Marlon Freitas
M
Marlon Freitas
M
8
Andreas Pereira
M
Andreas Pereira
M
11
Jhon Arias
88'
M
Jhon Arias
88'
M
19
Ramón Sosa
70'
M
Ramón Sosa
70'
M
40
Allan
1 👟
88'
M
Allan
1 👟
88'
M
42
J. López
1 ⚽
F
J. López
1 ⚽
F
Bench
56
Arthur
20'
D
Arthur
20'
D
7
Felipe Anderson
9'
M
Felipe Anderson
9'
M
30
Lucas Evangelista
9'
M
Lucas Evangelista
9'
M
31
Luighi Hanri
20'
F
Luighi Hanri
20'
F
1
D. Enríquez
G
D. Enríquez
G
90
Cris Silva
D
Cris Silva
D
5
R. Lutiger
D
R. Lutiger
D
20
Miguel Araujo
D
Miguel Araujo
D
8
L. Sosa
85'
D
L. Sosa
85'
D
23
M. Castro
59'
M
M. Castro
59'
M
19
Yoshimar Yotún
M
Yoshimar Yotún
M
55
Gustavo Cazonatti
85'
M
Gustavo Cazonatti
85'
M
18
J. González
1 ⚽
70'
M
J. González
1 ⚽
70'
M
11
I. Ávila
1 👟
59'
F
I. Ávila
1 👟
59'
F
16
L. Iberico
F
L. Iberico
F
Bench
15
A. Pósito
D
A. Pósito
D
14
Cristian Benavente
12'
F
Cristian Benavente
12'
F
37
Fabrizio Lora
D
Fabrizio Lora
D
9
Felipe Vizeu
31'
F
Felipe Vizeu
31'
F
26
Ian Wisdom
M
Ian Wisdom
M
96
L. Abram
D
L. Abram
D
7
S. González
31'
F
S. González
31'
F
Best on the pitch
Murilo
D · Palmeiras
9.00
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 75 pass
Allan
M · Palmeiras
7.90
1 👟
2 shots
· 22 pass
J. González
M · Sporting
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 16 pass
D. Enríquez
G · Sporting
7.70
· 34 pass
Jhon Arias
M · Palmeiras
7.60
3 shots
· 52 pass
Khellven
D · Palmeiras
7.30
· 51 pass
Palmeiras — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Miguel | G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Khellven | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 51 | 47% | 3 | — | — |
| Murilo | D | 90 | 9.00 | 1 | — | 2 | 75 | 66% | 1 | — | — |
| Gustavo Gómez | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 69 | 64% | — | — | — |
| A. Giay | D | 70 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 37 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 61 | 54% | 1 | — | — |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 47 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| Jhon Arias | M | 88 | 7.60 | — | — | 3 | 52 | 47% | 1 | — | — |
| Ramón Sosa | M | 70 | 6.60 | — | — | 3 | 17 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | 88 | 7.90 | — | 1 | 2 | 22 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| J. López | F | 90 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 17 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Arthur | D | 20 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 9 | 6.70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 9 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Luighi Hanri | F | 20 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
Sporting Cristal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Enríquez | G | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 34 | 16% | — | 1 | — |
| Cris Silva | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 18 | 12% | 4 | — | — |
| R. Lutiger | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Miguel Araujo | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 22 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Sosa | D | 85 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 20 | 13% | — | — | — |
| M. Castro | M | 59 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Yoshimar Yotún | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 33% | 4 | — | — |
| Gustavo Cazonatti | M | 85 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 16 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| J. González | M | 70 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 16 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| I. Ávila | F | 59 | 6.60 | — | 1 | — | 19 | 17% | — | — | — |
| L. Iberico | F | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Cristian Benavente | F | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Felipe Vizeu | F | 31 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| S. González | F | 31 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal?
The final score was Palmeiras 2–1 Sporting Cristal.
What did the model predict before Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal?
The model assigned 49% probability to a Palmeiras win, 27% to a draw, and 23% to an Sporting Cristal win.