Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 2
April 17, 2026 00:00
Murilo
(ast. Allan)
27'
José López
80'
(pen.)
41'
(ast. Irven Avila)
Juan Gonzalez
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Palmeiras a 49% win probability (draw 27%, Sporting Cristal 23%). The final result was Palmeiras 2–1 Sporting Cristal. In 1 previous meetings, Palmeiras have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Sporting Cristal.
Match statistics
15
Total shots
4
6
Shots on target
2
2.16
Actual xG
0.72
1
Saves
4
65%
Possession
35%
8
Corners
3
11
Tackles
14
0
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽Murilo
· ast. Allan
27'
41'
ast. Irven Avila ·
Juan Gonzalez⚽
59'
Santiago González
/
Maxloren Castro
59'
Felipe Vizeu
/
Irven Avila
64'
Ramón Sosa
/ Luighi Hanri
70'
Agustín Giay
/ Arthur Gabriel
70'
70'
Joao Cuenca
/
Juan Gonzalez
73'
Santiago González
77'
79'
Diego Enríquez
⚽José López
(pen.)
80'
85'
Mateo Rodríguez
/
Gustavo Cazonatti
85'
Cristian Benavente
/
Leandro Sosa
Allan
/ Lucas Evangelista
88'
Jhon Arias
/ Felipe Anderson
88'
90'+3
Felipe Vizeu
Pre-match prediction
49.09%
Palmeiras ←
27.35%
X
23.55%
Sporting
we assigned to the actual result (Palmeiras)
49.09%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.52
2.16
+0.64
0.97
0.72
-0.25
Palmeiras dominated by xG (2.16 vs 0.72).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Carlos Miguel
G
Carlos Miguel
G
12
Khellven
D
Khellven
D
26
Murilo
1 ⚽
D
Murilo
1 ⚽
D
15
Gustavo Gómez
D
Gustavo Gómez
D
4
Agustín Giay
70'
D
Agustín Giay
70'
D
17
Marlon Freitas
M
Marlon Freitas
M
8
Andreas Pereira
M
Andreas Pereira
M
11
J. Arias
88'
M
J. Arias
88'
M
19
R. Sosa
70'
M
R. Sosa
70'
M
40
Allan
1 👟
88'
M
Allan
1 👟
88'
M
42
José López
1 ⚽
F
José López
1 ⚽
F
Bench
56
Arthur Gabriel
20'
D
7
Felipe Anderson
9'
M
Felipe Anderson
9'
M
30
Lucas Evangelista
9'
M
Lucas Evangelista
9'
M
31
Luighi Hanri
20'
F
Luighi Hanri
20'
F
1
Diego Enríquez
G
Diego Enríquez
G
90
Cristiano
D
Cristiano
D
5
Rafael Lutiger
D
Rafael Lutiger
D
20
Miguel Araujo
D
Miguel Araujo
D
8
Leandro Sosa
85'
D
Leandro Sosa
85'
D
23
Maxloren Castro
59'
M
Maxloren Castro
59'
M
19
Yoshimar Yotún
M
Yoshimar Yotún
M
55
Gustavo Cazonatti
85'
M
Gustavo Cazonatti
85'
M
18
Juan Cruz Gonzalez
1 ⚽
70'
M
Juan Cruz Gonzalez
1 ⚽
70'
M
11
Irven Ávila
1 👟
59'
F
Irven Ávila
1 👟
59'
F
16
Luis Iberico
F
Luis Iberico
F
Bench
15
Alejandro Pósito
D
14
Cristian Benavente
12'
F
Cristian Benavente
12'
F
37
Fabrizio Lora
D
9
Felipe Vizeu
31'
F
Felipe Vizeu
31'
F
26
Ian Wisdom
M
Ian Wisdom
M
96
Luis Abram
D
Luis Abram
D
7
S. González
31'
F
S. González
31'
F
Best on the pitch
Murilo
D · Palmeiras
9.00
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 75 pass
Allan
M · Palmeiras
7.90
1 👟
2 shots
· 22 pass
Juan Cruz Gonzalez
M · Sporting
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 16 pass
Diego Enríquez
G · Sporting
7.70
· 34 pass
J. Arias
M · Palmeiras
7.60
3 shots
· 52 pass
Khellven
D · Palmeiras
7.30
· 51 pass
Palmeiras — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Miguel | G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Khellven | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 51 | 47% | 3 | — | — |
| Murilo | D | 90 | 9.00 | 1 | — | 2 | 75 | 66% | 1 | — | — |
| Gustavo Gómez | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 69 | 64% | — | — | — |
| Agustín Giay | D | 70 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 37 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 61 | 54% | 1 | — | — |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 47 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Arias | M | 88 | 7.60 | — | — | 3 | 52 | 47% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Sosa | M | 70 | 6.60 | — | — | 3 | 17 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | 88 | 7.90 | — | 1 | 2 | 22 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| José López | F | 90 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 17 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Arthur Gabriel | D | 20 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 9 | 6.70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 9 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Luighi Hanri | F | 20 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
Sporting Cristal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Enríquez | G | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 34 | 16% | — | 1 | — |
| Cristiano | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 18 | 12% | 4 | — | — |
| Rafael Lutiger | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Miguel Araujo | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 22 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Leandro Sosa | D | 85 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 20 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Maxloren Castro | M | 59 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Yoshimar Yotún | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 33% | 4 | — | — |
| Gustavo Cazonatti | M | 85 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 16 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Juan Cruz Gonzalez | M | 70 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 16 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| Irven Ávila | F | 59 | 6.60 | — | 1 | — | 19 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Luis Iberico | F | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Cristian Benavente | F | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Felipe Vizeu | F | 31 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| S. González | F | 31 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal?
The final score was Palmeiras 2–1 Sporting Cristal.
What did the model predict before Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal?
The model assigned 49% probability to a Palmeiras win, 27% to a draw, and 23% to an Sporting Cristal win.