Paris Saint Germain 1–1 Arsenal — pre-match prediction — Champions League — May 30, 2026

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Champions League · Final May 30, 2026 18:00

Paris Saint Germain

#1 · 3 pts

1 – 1

Final score

pens 4–3

Arsenal

#15 · 3 pts

O. Dembele 65' (pen.)

G. Ramos 120'+1 (pen.)

D. Doue 120'+2 (pen.)

A. Hakimi 120'+4 (pen.)

L. Beraldo 120'+5 (pen.)

6' (ast. L. Trossard) K. Havertz

(pen.) 120'+1 V. Gyokeres

(pen.) 120'+3 D. Rice

(pen.) 120'+4 G. Martinelli

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Paris Saint Germain a 41% win probability (draw 27%, Arsenal 30%). The final result was Paris Saint Germain 1–1 Arsenal.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.77

Actual xG

0.44

Saves

75%

Possession

25%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

ast. L. Trossard · K. Havertz⚽

46'

C. Mosquera

54'

B. Saka

⚽O. Dembele (pen.)

65'

66'

J. Timber / C. Mosquera ↕

66'

V. Gyokeres / M. Odegaard ↕

83'

G. Martinelli / L. Trossard ↕

83'

N. Madueke / B. Saka ↕

↕ K. Kvaratskhelia / B. Barcola

83'

J. Neves

90'+6

↕ O. Dembele / G. Ramos

90'+6

91'

M. Zubimendi / M. Lewis-Skelly ↕

91'

E. Eze / K. Havertz ↕

↕ F. Ruiz / W. Zaire-Emery

95'

98'

V. Gyokeres

103'

D. Rice

103'

M. Arteta

↕ Marquinhos / I. Zabarnyi

106'

↕ Vitinha / L. Beraldo

106'

N. Mendes

118'

⚽G. Ramos (pen.)

120'+1

(pen.) V. Gyokeres⚽

⚽D. Doue (pen.)

120'+2

(missed pen.) E. Eze⚽

⚽N. Mendes (missed pen.)

120'+3

(pen.) D. Rice⚽

⚽A. Hakimi (pen.)

120'+4

(pen.) G. Martinelli⚽

⚽L. Beraldo (pen.)

120'+5

(missed pen.) Gabriel⚽

Pre-match prediction

41.82%

Paris

27.53%

X ←

30.65%

Arsenal

we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 27.53% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Paris

1.33

1.77

+0.44

Arsenal

1.10

0.44

-0.66

Paris Saint Germain dominated by xG (1.77 vs 0.44). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

Lineups

Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3

M. Safonov G 6.30

Nuno Mendes D 7.30

W. Pacho D 6.60

Marquinhos D 7.00

A. Hakimi 1 ⚽ D 6.60

Fabián Ruiz M 7.00

Vitinha M 7.00

João Neves M 7.60

K. Kvaratskhelia 83' F 7.30

O. Dembélé 1 ⚽ 89' F 7.30

D. Doué 1 ⚽ F 7.30

Bench

B. Barcola 37' F 6.60

Beraldo 1 ⚽ 15' D 6.70

Gonçalo Ramos 1 ⚽ 31' F 6.30

I. Mbaye F

I. Zabarnyi 15' D 6.70

L. Chevalier G

Lee Kang-In M

L. Hernández D

Pedro Fernández M

Renato Bellucci G

Senny Mayulu M

W. Zaïre-Emery 25' M 6.60

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

David Raya G 7.00

P. Hincapié D 6.70

Gabriel Magalhães D 7.00

William Saliba D 6.60

Cristhian Mosquera 66' D 6.20

M. Lewis-Skelly M 6.60

D. Rice 1 ⚽ M 7.70

L. Trossard 1 👟 83' M 6.50

M. Ødegaard 66' M 6.70

B. Saka 83' M 6.20

K. Havertz 1 ⚽ F 7.30

Bench

C. Nørgaard M

E. Eze 30' M 6.50

Gabriel Jesus F

Gabriel Martinelli 1 ⚽ 37' F 6.30

Jurriën Timber 54' D 6.60

Kepa G

Martín Zubimendi 30' M 6.30

M. Dowman M

Mikel Merino M

N. Madueke 37' F 6.60

R. Calafiori D

V. Gyökeres 1 ⚽ 54' F 6.00

Best on the pitch

D. Rice

M · Arsenal

7.70

1 ⚽

· 41 pass

João Neves

M · Paris

7.60

1 shots · 88 pass

Nuno Mendes

D · Paris

7.30

· 98 pass

K. Havertz

F · Arsenal

7.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 17 pass

K. Kvaratskhelia

F · Paris

7.30

· 38 pass

O. Dembélé

F · Paris

7.30

1 ⚽

3 shots · 32 pass

Paris Saint Germain — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
M. Safonov	G	120	6.30	—	—	—	21	16%	—	—	—
Nuno Mendes	D	120	7.30	—	—	—	98	86%	1	1	—
W. Pacho	D	120	6.60	—	—	1	61	54%	—	—	—
Marquinhos	D	105	7.00	—	—	—	95	88%	2	—	—
A. Hakimi	D	120	6.60	1	—	3	86	78%	1	—	—
Fabián Ruiz	M	95	7.00	—	—	3	73	68%	2	—	—
Vitinha	M	105	7.00	—	—	2	150	141%	—	—	—
João Neves	M	120	7.60	—	—	1	88	77%	3	1	—
K. Kvaratskhelia	F	83	7.30	—	—	—	38	35%	—	—	—
O. Dembélé	F	89	7.30	1	—	3	32	27%	—	—	—
D. Doué	F	120	7.30	1	—	2	73	68%	2	—	—
B. Barcola	F	37	6.60	—	—	1	13	12%	—	—	—
Beraldo	D	15	6.70	1	—	—	14	14%	—	—	—
Gonçalo Ramos	F	31	6.30	1	—	—	6	6%	—	—	—
I. Zabarnyi	D	15	6.70	—	—	—	17	16%	—	—	—
W. Zaïre-Emery	M	25	6.60	—	—	—	22	20%	—	—	—

Arsenal — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
David Raya	G	120	7.00	—	—	—	37	10%	—	—	—
P. Hincapié	D	120	6.70	—	—	—	22	14%	4	—	—
Gabriel Magalhães	D	120	7.00	—	—	—	35	28%	1	—	—
William Saliba	D	120	6.60	—	—	—	21	20%	—	—	—
Cristhian Mosquera	D	66	6.20	—	—	—	10	7%	3	1	—
M. Lewis-Skelly	M	90	6.60	—	—	—	15	12%	1	—	—
D. Rice	M	120	7.70	1	—	—	41	31%	4	1	—
L. Trossard	M	83	6.50	—	1	—	21	14%	—	—	—
M. Ødegaard	M	66	6.70	—	—	—	7	6%	2	—	—
B. Saka	M	83	6.20	—	—	—	8	4%	1	1	—
K. Havertz	F	90	7.30	1	—	1	17	13%	—	—	—
E. Eze	M	30	6.50	—	—	—	7	5%	—	—	—
Gabriel Martinelli	F	37	6.30	1	—	—	6	3%	—	—	—
Jurriën Timber	D	54	6.60	—	—	1	13	11%	1	—	—
Martín Zubimendi	M	30	6.30	—	—	—	6	6%	—	—	—
N. Madueke	F	37	6.60	—	—	—	7	6%	1	—	—
V. Gyökeres	F	54	6.00	1	—	—	12	6%	—	1	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Paris Saint Germain vs Arsenal?

The final score was Paris Saint Germain 1–1 Arsenal.

What did the model predict before Paris Saint Germain vs Arsenal?

The model assigned 41% probability to a Paris Saint Germain win, 27% to a draw, and 30% to an Arsenal win.