Paris Saint Germain 1–1 Arsenal — pre-match prediction — Champions League — May 30, 2026

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Paris Saint Germain

#11 · 14 pts

1 – 1

Final score

pens 4–3

Arsenal

#1 · 24 pts

O. Dembele 65' (pen.)

G. Ramos 120'+1 (pen.)

D. Doue 120'+2 (pen.)

A. Hakimi 120'+4 (pen.)

L. Beraldo 120'+5 (pen.)

6' (ast. L. Trossard) K. Havertz

(pen.) 120'+1 V. Gyokeres

(pen.) 120'+3 D. Rice

(pen.) 120'+4 G. Martinelli

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Paris Saint Germain a 41% win probability (draw 27%, Arsenal 30%). The final result was Paris Saint Germain 1–1 Arsenal.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.77

Actual xG

0.44

Saves

75%

Possession

25%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

ast. L. Trossard · K. Havertz⚽

46'

C. Mosquera

54'

B. Saka

⚽O. Dembele (pen.)

65'

66'

J. Timber / C. Mosquera ↕

66'

V. Gyokeres / M. Odegaard ↕

83'

G. Martinelli / L. Trossard ↕

83'

N. Madueke / B. Saka ↕

↕ K. Kvaratskhelia / B. Barcola

83'

J. Neves

90'+6

↕ O. Dembele / G. Ramos

90'+6

91'

M. Zubimendi / M. Lewis-Skelly ↕

91'

E. Eze / K. Havertz ↕

↕ F. Ruiz / W. Zaire-Emery

95'

98'

V. Gyokeres

103'

D. Rice

103'

M. Arteta

↕ Marquinhos / I. Zabarnyi

106'

↕ Vitinha / L. Beraldo

106'

N. Mendes

118'

⚽G. Ramos (pen.)

120'+1

(pen.) V. Gyokeres⚽

⚽D. Doue (pen.)

120'+2

(missed pen.) E. Eze⚽

⚽N. Mendes (missed pen.)

120'+3

(pen.) D. Rice⚽

⚽A. Hakimi (pen.)

120'+4

(pen.) G. Martinelli⚽

⚽L. Beraldo (pen.)

120'+5

(missed pen.) Gabriel⚽

Pre-match prediction

41.82%

Paris

27.53%

X ←

30.65%

Arsenal

we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 27.53% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Paris

1.33

1.77

+0.44

Arsenal

1.10

0.44

-0.66

Paris Saint Germain dominated by xG (1.77 vs 0.44). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Arsenal	8	24
2	Bayern München	8	21
3	Liverpool	8	18
4	Tottenham	8	17
5	Barcelona	8	16
6	Chelsea	8	16
7	Sporting CP	8	16
8	Manchester City	8	16
9	Real Madrid	8	15
10	Inter	8	15
11	Paris Saint Germain	8	14
12	Newcastle	8	14
13	Juventus	8	13
14	Atletico Madrid	8	13
15	Atalanta	8	13
16	Bayer Leverkusen	8	12
17	Borussia Dortmund	8	11
18	Olympiakos Piraeus	8	11
19	Club Brugge KV	8	10
20	Galatasaray	8	10
21	Monaco	8	10
22	Qarabag	8	10
23	Bodo/Glimt	8	9
24	Benfica	8	9
25	Marseille	8	9
26	Pafos	8	9
27	Union St. Gilloise	8	9
28	PSV Eindhoven	8	8
29	Athletic Club	8	8
30	Napoli	8	8
31	FC Copenhagen	8	8
32	Ajax	8	6
33	Eintracht Frankfurt	8	4
34	Slavia Praha	8	3
35	Villarreal	8	1
36	Kairat Almaty	8	1

Lineups

Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3

Matvey Safonov G 6.30

Nuno Mendes D 7.30

W. Pacho D 6.60

Marquinhos D 7.00

Achraf Hakimi 1 ⚽ D 6.60

Fabián Ruiz M 7.00

Vitinha M 7.00

João Neves M 7.60

K. Kvaratskhelia 83' F 7.30

O. Dembélé 1 ⚽ 89' F 7.30

Désiré Doué 1 ⚽ F 7.30

Bench

B. Barcola 37' F 6.60

Dro Fernández M

Gonçalo Ramos 1 ⚽ 31' F 6.30

Ibrahim Mbaye F

I. Zabarnyi 15' D 6.70

Lee Kang-In M

Lucas Beraldo 1 ⚽ 15' D 6.70

Lucas Chevalier G

Lucas Hernández D

Renato Marin G

Senny Mayulu M

Warren Zaïre-Emery 25' M 6.60

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

David Raya G 7.00

P. Hincapié D 6.70

Gabriel Magalhães D 7.00

William Saliba D 6.60

Cristhian Mosquera 66' D 6.20

M. Lewis-Skelly M 6.60

D. Rice 1 ⚽ M 7.70

Leandro Trossard 1 👟 83' M 6.50

M. Ødegaard 66' M 6.70

B. Saka 83' M 6.20

K. Havertz 1 ⚽ F 7.30

Bench

C. Nørgaard M

E. Eze 30' M 6.50

Gabriel Jesus F

Gabriel Martinelli 1 ⚽ 37' F 6.30

Jurriën Timber 54' D 6.60

Kepa G

Martín Zubimendi 30' M 6.30

Max Dowman M

Mikel Merino M

N. Madueke 37' F 6.60

Riccardo Calafiori D

V. Gyökeres 1 ⚽ 54' F 6.00

Best on the pitch

D. Rice

M · Arsenal

7.70

1 ⚽

· 41 pass

João Neves

M · Paris

7.60

1 shots · 88 pass

Nuno Mendes

D · Paris

7.30

· 98 pass

K. Havertz

F · Arsenal

7.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 17 pass

K. Kvaratskhelia

F · Paris

7.30

· 38 pass

O. Dembélé

F · Paris

7.30

1 ⚽

3 shots · 32 pass

Paris Saint Germain — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Matvey Safonov	G	120	6.30	—	—	—	21	16%	—	—	—
Nuno Mendes	D	120	7.30	—	—	—	98	86%	1	1	—
W. Pacho	D	120	6.60	—	—	1	61	54%	—	—	—
Marquinhos	D	105	7.00	—	—	—	95	88%	2	—	—
Achraf Hakimi	D	120	6.60	1	—	3	86	78%	1	—	—
Fabián Ruiz	M	95	7.00	—	—	3	73	68%	2	—	—
Vitinha	M	105	7.00	—	—	2	150	141%	—	—	—
João Neves	M	120	7.60	—	—	1	88	77%	3	1	—
K. Kvaratskhelia	F	83	7.30	—	—	—	38	35%	—	—	—
O. Dembélé	F	89	7.30	1	—	3	32	27%	—	—	—
Désiré Doué	F	120	7.30	1	—	2	73	68%	2	—	—
B. Barcola	F	37	6.60	—	—	1	13	12%	—	—	—
Gonçalo Ramos	F	31	6.30	1	—	—	6	6%	—	—	—
I. Zabarnyi	D	15	6.70	—	—	—	17	16%	—	—	—
Lucas Beraldo	D	15	6.70	1	—	—	14	14%	—	—	—
Warren Zaïre-Emery	M	25	6.60	—	—	—	22	20%	—	—	—

Arsenal — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
David Raya	G	120	7.00	—	—	—	37	10%	—	—	—
P. Hincapié	D	120	6.70	—	—	—	22	14%	4	—	—
Gabriel Magalhães	D	120	7.00	—	—	—	35	28%	1	—	—
William Saliba	D	120	6.60	—	—	—	21	20%	—	—	—
Cristhian Mosquera	D	66	6.20	—	—	—	10	7%	3	1	—
M. Lewis-Skelly	M	90	6.60	—	—	—	15	12%	1	—	—
D. Rice	M	120	7.70	1	—	—	41	31%	4	1	—
Leandro Trossard	M	83	6.50	—	1	—	21	14%	—	—	—
M. Ødegaard	M	66	6.70	—	—	—	7	6%	2	—	—
B. Saka	M	83	6.20	—	—	—	8	4%	1	1	—
K. Havertz	F	90	7.30	1	—	1	17	13%	—	—	—
E. Eze	M	30	6.50	—	—	—	7	5%	—	—	—
Gabriel Martinelli	F	37	6.30	1	—	—	6	3%	—	—	—
Jurriën Timber	D	54	6.60	—	—	1	13	11%	1	—	—
Martín Zubimendi	M	30	6.30	—	—	—	6	6%	—	—	—
N. Madueke	F	37	6.60	—	—	—	7	6%	1	—	—
V. Gyökeres	F	54	6.00	1	—	—	12	6%	—	1	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Paris Saint Germain vs Arsenal?

The final score was Paris Saint Germain 1–1 Arsenal.

What did the model predict before Paris Saint Germain vs Arsenal?

The model assigned 41% probability to a Paris Saint Germain win, 27% to a draw, and 30% to an Arsenal win.