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← UEFA Super Cup

Paris Saint Germain - Aston Villa

UEFA Super Cup August 12, 2026 21:00 Red Bull Arena, Salzburg
Paris Saint Germain
vs
Aston Villa
⚡ Pre-match analysis
31.06%
Win
Paris Saint Germain
29.96%
Draw
38.98%
Win
Aston Villa
1.47
Expected xG
2.4

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (12.01%)
1X2 Result
1 31%
X 30%
2 39%
Double Chance
1X 61%
X2 69%
12 70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 53%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Aston Villa a 38% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Paris Saint Germain. Expected goals are 1.5 for Paris Saint Germain and 2.4 for Aston Villa (total 3.9), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 12.01% probability.

Season Stats

Paris Saint Germain
10W 3D 2L
Aston Villa
9W 2D 4L
Averages per game
2.3
Goals
2.2
0.9
Conceded
1.1
5.9
Shots OT
5.1
6.3
Corners
5.2
64%
Poss.
51%
Percentages
93%
O 1.5
87%
60%
O 2.5
67%
47%
BTTS
53%
53%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches across all competitions (friendlies excluded) — no in-tournament history yet.

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
40%
O 3.5
60%
BTTS
Paris Saint Germain
6W 2D 2L · at home
Aston Villa
4W 2D 4L · away
2.4
gls/g
1.3
1.5
Conceded
1.2
60%
Win %
40%
80%
Win or Draw
60%
90%
O 1.5
70%
70%
O 2.5
50%
50%
O 3.5
30%
70%
BTTS
50%
30%
Clean Sht
20%
0%
Failed to Score
30%
last 10
ℹ Home/away records across all competitions (friendlies excluded) — no in-tournament history yet.

Score Matrix

↕ Paris Saint Germain Aston Villa →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.1% 5.0% 6.0% 4.8% 2.9% 1.4%
1 3.1% 7.4% 8.8% 7.1% 4.2% 2.0%
2 2.3% 5.4% 6.5% 5.2% 3.1% 1.5%
3 1.1% 2.7% 3.2% 2.5% 1.5% 0.7%
4 0.4% 1.0% 1.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3%
5 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Recent form

Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain
No data available
Home clean sheet (120 days) 28%
Aston Villa Aston Villa
No data available
Away clean sheet (120 days) 24%

Playing profile

Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain
Attack
29
Defence
58
Form
48
Aston Villa Aston Villa
Attack
57
Defence
59
Form
63
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Aston Villa?
The model gives Paris Saint Germain a 31% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 38% for an Aston Villa win.
How many goals are expected in Paris Saint Germain vs Aston Villa?
Expected goals: Paris Saint Germain 1.5, Aston Villa 2.4 (total 3.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Paris Saint Germain vs Aston Villa?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.01%.