Paris Saint Germain - Barcelona
Champions League
October 20, 2026 21:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
31.79%
Win
Paris Saint Germain
29.38%
Draw
38.83%
Win
Barcelona
1.03
1.28
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(12.19%)
1X2 Result
1
32%
X
29%
2
39%
Double Chance
1X
61%
X2
68%
12
71%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
64%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Barcelona a 38% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Paris Saint Germain. Expected goals are 1.0 for Paris Saint Germain and 1.3 for Barcelona (total 2.3), with a 83% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 12.19% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Paris Saint Germain have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Barcelona.
Season Stats
8W
5D
2L
8W
2D
3L
Averages per game
2.5
Goals
2.8
1.4
Conceded
1.6
6.9
Shots OT
7.2
5.9
Corners
4.8
64%
Poss.
64%
Percentages
93%
O 1.5
100%
60%
O 2.5
85%
73%
BTTS
85%
27%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ
Based on the last 15 matches in Champions League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
47%
O 3.5
82%
BTTS
6W
3D
1L
· at home
3W
2D
1L
· away
3.2
gls/g
2.0
1.6
Conceded
1.8
60%
Win %
50%
90%
Win or Draw
83%
100%
O 1.5
100%
70%
O 2.5
83%
60%
O 3.5
33%
80%
BTTS
83%
20%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
17%
last 10
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Paris Saint Germain
Barcelona →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0% | 12.7% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10.3% | 13.1% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 5.3% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Paris Saint Germain
Attack
59
Defence
69
Form
61
Barcelona
Attack
88
Defence
72
Form
86
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
1
0
Draw
0
1 Oct 2025
2–1
League Table
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Paris Saint Germain
|
1 | 3 |
| 2 |
Bayern München
|
1 | 3 |
| 3 |
Barcelona
|
1 | 3 |
| 4 |
Manchester United
|
1 | 3 |
| 5 |
Como
|
1 | 3 |
| 6 |
VfB Stuttgart
|
1 | 3 |
| 7 |
Sporting CP
|
1 | 3 |
| 8 |
Manchester City
|
1 | 3 |
| 9 |
Aston Villa
|
1 | 3 |
| 10 |
Lens
|
1 | 3 |
| 11 |
Real Betis
|
1 | 3 |
| 12 |
Borussia Dortmund
|
1 | 3 |
| 13 |
Liverpool
|
1 | 3 |
| 14 |
Real Madrid
|
1 | 3 |
| 15 |
Arsenal
|
1 | 3 |
| 16 |
AEK Athens FC
|
1 | 3 |
| 17 |
AS Roma
|
1 | 1 |
| 18 |
Shakhtar Donetsk
|
1 | 1 |
| 19 |
PSV Eindhoven
|
1 | 1 |
| 20 |
Fenerbahçe
|
1 | 1 |
| 21 |
Villarreal
|
1 | 0 |
| 22 |
Lille
|
1 | 0 |
| 23 |
Slavia Praha
|
1 | 0 |
| 24 |
Club Brugge KV
|
1 | 0 |
| 25 |
Inter
|
1 | 0 |
| 26 |
Atletico Madrid
|
1 | 0 |
| 27 |
Napoli
|
1 | 0 |
| 28 |
Lask Linz
|
1 | 0 |
| 29 |
Viking
|
1 | 0 |
| 30 |
Galatasaray
|
1 | 0 |
| 31 |
FC Porto
|
1 | 0 |
| 32 |
RB Leipzig
|
1 | 0 |
| 33 |
Feyenoord
|
1 | 0 |
| 34 |
Sabah FA
|
1 | 0 |
| 35 |
Slovan Bratislava
|
1 | 0 |
| 36 |
Bodo/Glimt
|
1 | 0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona?
The model gives Paris Saint Germain a 31% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 38% for an Barcelona win.
How many goals are expected in Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona?
Expected goals: Paris Saint Germain 1.0, Barcelona 1.3 (total 2.3). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 83%.
What is the most likely score in Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.19%.