Champions League
· Semi-finals
April 28, 2026 21:00
K. Kvaratskhelia
(ast. D. Doue)
24'
J. Neves
(ast. O. Dembele)
33'
O. Dembele
45'+5
(pen.)
K. Kvaratskhelia
(ast. A. Hakimi)
56'
O. Dembele
(ast. D. Doue)
58'
(pen.)
17'
H. Kane
41'
(ast. A. Pavlovic)
M. Olise
65'
(ast. J. Kimmich)
D. Upamecano
68'
(ast. H. Kane)
L. Diaz
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Paris Saint Germain a 47% win probability (draw 20%, Bayern München 31%). The final result was Paris Saint Germain 5–4 Bayern München. In 2 previous meetings, Paris Saint Germain have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Bayern München.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
9
5
Shots on target
8
1.91
Actual xG
2.51
2
Saves
0
43%
Possession
57%
2
Corners
5
14
Tackles
22
3
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
Marquinhos
12'
17'
(pen.)
H. Kane⚽
⚽K. Kvaratskhelia
· ast. D. Doue
24'
⚽J. Neves
· ast. O. Dembele
33'
41'
ast. A. Pavlovic ·
M. Olise⚽
⚽O. Dembele
(pen.)
45'+5
46'
K. Laimer
/
A. Davies
⚽K. Kvaratskhelia
· ast. A. Hakimi
56'
⚽O. Dembele
· ast. D. Doue
58'
W. Zaire-Emery
/ F. Ruiz
64'
65'
ast. J. Kimmich ·
D. Upamecano⚽
68'
ast. H. Kane ·
L. Diaz⚽
D. Doue
/ B. Barcola
70'
F. Ruiz
77'
79'
L. Goretzka
/
J. Musiala
A. Hakimi
80'
K. Kvaratskhelia
/ S. Mayulu
84'
N. Mendes
/ L. Hernandez
84'
90'+3
N. Jackson
/
A. Pavlovic
Pre-match prediction
47.61%
Paris ←
20.86%
X
31.53%
Bayern
we assigned to the actual result (Paris Saint Germain)
47.61%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.19
1.91
-0.28
1.63
2.51
+0.88
Bayern München dominated by xG (2.51 vs 1.91).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
39
M. Safonov
G
M. Safonov
G
25
Nuno Mendes
84'
D
Nuno Mendes
84'
D
51
W. Pacho
D
W. Pacho
D
5
Marquinhos
D
Marquinhos
D
2
A. Hakimi
1 👟
D
A. Hakimi
1 👟
D
87
João Neves
1 ⚽
M
João Neves
1 ⚽
M
17
Vitinha
M
Vitinha
M
33
W. Zaïre-Emery
64'
M
W. Zaïre-Emery
64'
M
7
K. Kvaratskhelia
2 ⚽
84'
F
K. Kvaratskhelia
2 ⚽
84'
F
10
O. Dembélé
2 ⚽
1 👟
F
O. Dembélé
2 ⚽
1 👟
F
14
D. Doué
2 👟
70'
F
D. Doué
2 👟
70'
F
Bench
29
B. Barcola
20'
F
B. Barcola
20'
F
4
Beraldo
D
Beraldo
D
8
Fabián Ruiz
26'
M
Fabián Ruiz
26'
M
9
Gonçalo Ramos
F
Gonçalo Ramos
F
49
I. Mbaye
F
I. Mbaye
F
6
I. Zabarnyi
D
I. Zabarnyi
D
19
Lee Kang-In
M
Lee Kang-In
M
21
L. Hernández
11'
D
L. Hernández
11'
D
27
Pedro Fernández
M
Pedro Fernández
M
24
Senny Mayulu
11'
M
Senny Mayulu
11'
M
1
M. Neuer
G
M. Neuer
G
19
A. Davies
45'
D
A. Davies
45'
D
4
J. Tah
D
J. Tah
D
2
D. Upamecano
1 ⚽
D
D. Upamecano
1 ⚽
D
44
J. Stanišić
D
J. Stanišić
D
45
A. Pavlović
1 👟
89'
M
A. Pavlović
1 👟
89'
M
6
J. Kimmich
1 👟
M
J. Kimmich
1 👟
M
14
L. Díaz
1 ⚽
M
L. Díaz
1 ⚽
M
10
J. Musiala
79'
M
J. Musiala
79'
M
17
M. Olise
1 ⚽
M
M. Olise
1 ⚽
M
9
H. Kane
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
H. Kane
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
Bench
21
H. Ito
D
H. Ito
D
3
Kim Min-Jae
D
Kim Min-Jae
D
27
K. Laimer
45'
M
K. Laimer
45'
M
8
Leon Goretzka
11'
M
Leon Goretzka
11'
M
11
N. Jackson
1'
F
N. Jackson
1'
F
Best on the pitch
L. Díaz
M · Bayern
8.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 42 pass
H. Kane
F · Bayern
8.60
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 28 pass
K. Kvaratskhelia
F · Paris
8.50
2 ⚽
2 shots
· 19 pass
O. Dembélé
F · Paris
8.20
2 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 8 pass
M. Olise
M · Bayern
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 46 pass
D. Doué
F · Paris
7.30
2 👟
· 18 pass
Paris Saint Germain — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Safonov | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 29 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Nuno Mendes | D | 84 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| W. Pacho | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 36 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Marquinhos | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 50 | 46% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Hakimi | D | 90 | 6.00 | — | 1 | — | 46 | 42% | 2 | 1 | — |
| João Neves | M | 90 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 26 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Vitinha | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 56 | 48% | 1 | — | — |
| W. Zaïre-Emery | M | 64 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| K. Kvaratskhelia | F | 84 | 8.50 | 2 | — | 2 | 19 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| O. Dembélé | F | 90 | 8.20 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| D. Doué | F | 70 | 7.30 | — | 2 | — | 18 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| B. Barcola | F | 20 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Fabián Ruiz | M | 26 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | 2 | 1 | — |
| L. Hernández | D | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Senny Mayulu | M | 11 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
Bayern München — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Neuer | G | 90 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 38 | 16% | — | — | — |
| A. Davies | D | 45 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 24 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Tah | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 67 | 63% | — | — | — |
| D. Upamecano | D | 90 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 47 | 40% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Stanišić | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 37 | 28% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Pavlović | M | 89 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 65 | 62% | 6 | — | — |
| J. Kimmich | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 54 | 49% | — | — | — |
| L. Díaz | M | 90 | 8.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 42 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Musiala | M | 79 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 26 | 23% | 4 | — | — |
| M. Olise | M | 90 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 46 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Kane | F | 90 | 8.60 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Laimer | M | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| Leon Goretzka | M | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| N. Jackson | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Paris Saint Germain vs Bayern München?
The final score was Paris Saint Germain 5–4 Bayern München.
What did the model predict before Paris Saint Germain vs Bayern München?
The model assigned 47% probability to a Paris Saint Germain win, 20% to a draw, and 31% to an Bayern München win.