Paris Saint Germain 5–4 Bayern München — pre-match prediction — Champions League — April 28, 2026

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Champions League · Semi-finals April 28, 2026 21:00

Paris Saint Germain

#11 · 14 pts

5 – 4

Final score

Bayern München

#2 · 21 pts

K. Kvaratskhelia (ast. D. Doue) 24'

J. Neves (ast. O. Dembele) 33'

O. Dembele 45'+5 (pen.)

K. Kvaratskhelia (ast. A. Hakimi) 56'

O. Dembele (ast. D. Doue) 58'

(pen.) 17' H. Kane

41' (ast. A. Pavlovic) M. Olise

65' (ast. J. Kimmich) D. Upamecano

68' (ast. H. Kane) L. Diaz

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Paris Saint Germain a 47% win probability (draw 20%, Bayern München 31%). The final result was Paris Saint Germain 5–4 Bayern München. In 2 previous meetings, Paris Saint Germain have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Bayern München.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.91

Actual xG

2.51

Saves

43%

Possession

57%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

Marquinhos

12'

17'

(pen.) H. Kane⚽

⚽K. Kvaratskhelia · ast. D. Doue

24'

⚽J. Neves · ast. O. Dembele

33'

41'

ast. A. Pavlovic · M. Olise⚽

⚽O. Dembele (pen.)

45'+5

46'

K. Laimer / A. Davies ↕

⚽K. Kvaratskhelia · ast. A. Hakimi

56'

⚽O. Dembele · ast. D. Doue

58'

↕ W. Zaire-Emery / F. Ruiz

64'

65'

ast. J. Kimmich · D. Upamecano⚽

68'

ast. H. Kane · L. Diaz⚽

↕ D. Doue / B. Barcola

70'

F. Ruiz

77'

79'

L. Goretzka / J. Musiala ↕

A. Hakimi

80'

↕ K. Kvaratskhelia / S. Mayulu

84'

↕ N. Mendes / L. Hernandez

84'

90'+3

N. Jackson / A. Pavlovic ↕

Pre-match prediction

47.61%

Paris ←

20.86%

31.53%

Bayern

we assigned to the actual result (Paris Saint Germain) 47.61% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Paris

2.19

1.91

-0.28

Bayern

1.63

2.51

+0.88

Bayern München dominated by xG (2.51 vs 1.91). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Arsenal	8	24
2	Bayern München	8	21
3	Liverpool	8	18
4	Tottenham	8	17
5	Barcelona	8	16
6	Chelsea	8	16
7	Sporting CP	8	16
8	Manchester City	8	16
9	Real Madrid	8	15
10	Inter	8	15
11	Paris Saint Germain	8	14
12	Newcastle	8	14
13	Juventus	8	13
14	Atletico Madrid	8	13
15	Atalanta	8	13
16	Bayer Leverkusen	8	12
17	Borussia Dortmund	8	11
18	Olympiakos Piraeus	8	11
19	Club Brugge KV	8	10
20	Galatasaray	8	10
21	Monaco	8	10
22	Qarabag	8	10
23	Bodo/Glimt	8	9
24	Benfica	8	9
25	Marseille	8	9
26	Pafos	8	9
27	Union St. Gilloise	8	9
28	PSV Eindhoven	8	8
29	Athletic Club	8	8
30	Napoli	8	8
31	FC Copenhagen	8	8
32	Ajax	8	6
33	Eintracht Frankfurt	8	4
34	Slavia Praha	8	3
35	Villarreal	8	1
36	Kairat Almaty	8	1

Lineups

Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3

Matvey Safonov G 6.50

N. Mendes 84' D 6.20

W. Pacho D 6.20

Marquinhos D 6.50

A. Hakimi 1 👟 D 6.00

João Neves 1 ⚽ M 6.90

Vitinha M 7.20

Warren Zaïre-Emery 64' M 6.90

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 2 ⚽ 84' F 8.50

Ousmane Dembélé 2 ⚽ 1 👟 F 8.20

D. Doué 2 👟 70' F 7.30

Bench

Bradley Barcola 20' F 6.30

Dro Fernández M

Fabián Ruiz 26' M 6.30

Gonçalo Ramos F

Ilya Zabarnyi D

I. Mbaye F

Kang-in Lee M

Lucas Beraldo D

Lucas Hernández 11' D 6.70

Senny Mayulu 11' M 6.90

Bayern München 4-2-3-1

M. Neuer G 5.30

A. Davies 45' D 5.90

Jonathan Tah D 6.30

D. Upamecano 1 ⚽ D 6.90

J. Stanisic D 6.20

A. Pavlović 1 👟 89' M 6.90

J. Kimmich 1 👟 M 7.30

L. Díaz 1 ⚽ M 8.70

J. Musiala 79' M 6.50

M. Olise 1 ⚽ M 7.60

H. Kane 1 ⚽ 1 👟 F 8.60

Bench

H. Ito D

Kim Min-Jae D

K. Laimer 45' M 6.90

Leon Goretzka 11' M 6.30

N. Jackson 1' F

Best on the pitch

L. Díaz

M · Bayern

8.70

1 ⚽

1 shots · 42 pass

H. Kane

F · Bayern

8.60

1 ⚽ 1 👟

3 shots · 28 pass

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

F · Paris

8.50

2 ⚽

2 shots · 19 pass

Ousmane Dembélé

F · Paris

8.20

2 ⚽ 1 👟

3 shots · 8 pass

M. Olise

M · Bayern

7.60

1 ⚽

2 shots · 46 pass

D. Doué

F · Paris

7.30

2 👟

· 18 pass

Paris Saint Germain — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Matvey Safonov	G	90	6.50	—	—	—	29	11%	—	—	—
N. Mendes	D	84	6.20	—	—	1	35	28%	1	—	—
W. Pacho	D	90	6.20	—	—	—	36	32%	—	—	—
Marquinhos	D	90	6.50	—	—	—	50	46%	1	1	—
A. Hakimi	D	90	6.00	—	1	—	46	42%	2	1	—
João Neves	M	90	6.90	1	—	1	26	24%	2	—	—
Vitinha	M	90	7.20	—	—	—	56	48%	1	—	—
Warren Zaïre-Emery	M	64	6.90	—	—	—	30	27%	2	—	—
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia	F	84	8.50	2	—	2	19	16%	1	—	—
Ousmane Dembélé	F	90	8.20	2	1	3	8	7%	—	—	—
D. Doué	F	70	7.30	—	2	—	18	17%	2	—	—
Bradley Barcola	F	20	6.30	—	—	—	4	3%	—	—	—
Fabián Ruiz	M	26	6.30	—	—	—	7	7%	2	1	—
Lucas Hernández	D	11	6.70	—	—	—	4	4%	—	—	—
Senny Mayulu	M	11	6.90	—	—	1	3	2%	—	—	—

Bayern München — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
M. Neuer	G	90	5.30	—	—	—	38	16%	—	—	—
A. Davies	D	45	5.90	—	—	—	24	23%	1	—	—
Jonathan Tah	D	90	6.30	—	—	—	67	63%	—	—	—
D. Upamecano	D	90	6.90	1	—	1	47	40%	3	—	—
J. Stanisic	D	90	6.20	—	—	—	37	28%	3	—	—
A. Pavlović	M	89	6.90	—	1	—	65	62%	6	—	—
J. Kimmich	M	90	7.30	—	1	1	54	49%	—	—	—
L. Díaz	M	90	8.70	1	—	1	42	37%	1	—	—
J. Musiala	M	79	6.50	—	—	—	26	23%	4	—	—
M. Olise	M	90	7.60	1	—	2	46	35%	1	—	—
H. Kane	F	90	8.60	1	1	3	28	23%	1	—	—
K. Laimer	M	45	6.90	—	—	1	27	20%	2	—	—
Leon Goretzka	M	11	6.30	—	—	—	3	3%	—	—	—
N. Jackson	F	1	—	—	—	—	2	1%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Paris Saint Germain vs Bayern München?

The final score was Paris Saint Germain 5–4 Bayern München.

What did the model predict before Paris Saint Germain vs Bayern München?

The model assigned 47% probability to a Paris Saint Germain win, 20% to a draw, and 31% to an Bayern München win.