Champions League
· Semi-finals
April 28, 2026 21:00
K. Kvaratskhelia
(ast. D. Doue)
24'
J. Neves
(ast. O. Dembele)
33'
O. Dembele
45'+5
(pen.)
K. Kvaratskhelia
(ast. A. Hakimi)
56'
O. Dembele
(ast. D. Doue)
58'
(pen.)
17'
H. Kane
41'
(ast. A. Pavlovic)
M. Olise
65'
(ast. J. Kimmich)
D. Upamecano
68'
(ast. H. Kane)
L. Diaz
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Paris Saint Germain a 47% win probability (draw 20%, Bayern München 31%). The final result was Paris Saint Germain 5–4 Bayern München. In 2 previous meetings, Paris Saint Germain have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Bayern München.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
9
5
Shots on target
8
1.91
Actual xG
2.51
2
Saves
0
43%
Possession
57%
2
Corners
5
14
Tackles
22
3
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
Marquinhos
12'
17'
(pen.)
H. Kane⚽
⚽K. Kvaratskhelia
· ast. D. Doue
24'
⚽J. Neves
· ast. O. Dembele
33'
41'
ast. A. Pavlovic ·
M. Olise⚽
⚽O. Dembele
(pen.)
45'+5
46'
K. Laimer
/
A. Davies
⚽K. Kvaratskhelia
· ast. A. Hakimi
56'
⚽O. Dembele
· ast. D. Doue
58'
W. Zaire-Emery
/ F. Ruiz
64'
65'
ast. J. Kimmich ·
D. Upamecano⚽
68'
ast. H. Kane ·
L. Diaz⚽
D. Doue
/ B. Barcola
70'
F. Ruiz
77'
79'
L. Goretzka
/
J. Musiala
A. Hakimi
80'
K. Kvaratskhelia
/ S. Mayulu
84'
N. Mendes
/ L. Hernandez
84'
90'+3
N. Jackson
/
A. Pavlovic
Pre-match prediction
47.61%
Paris ←
20.86%
X
31.53%
Bayern
we assigned to the actual result (Paris Saint Germain)
47.61%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.19
1.91
-0.28
1.63
2.51
+0.88
Bayern München dominated by xG (2.51 vs 1.91).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
39
Matvey Safonov
G
Matvey Safonov
G
25
Nuno Mendes
84'
D
Nuno Mendes
84'
D
51
Willian Pacho
D
Willian Pacho
D
5
Marquinhos
D
Marquinhos
D
2
A. Hakimi
1 👟
D
A. Hakimi
1 👟
D
87
João Neves
1 ⚽
M
João Neves
1 ⚽
M
17
Vitinha
M
Vitinha
M
33
Warren Zaïre-Emery
64'
M
Warren Zaïre-Emery
64'
M
7
K. Kvaratskhelia
2 ⚽
84'
F
K. Kvaratskhelia
2 ⚽
84'
F
10
O. Dembélé
2 ⚽
1 👟
F
O. Dembélé
2 ⚽
1 👟
F
14
D. Doué
2 👟
70'
F
D. Doué
2 👟
70'
F
Bench
29
B. Barcola
20'
F
B. Barcola
20'
F
27
Dro Fernández
M
Dro Fernández
M
8
Fabián Ruiz
26'
M
Fabián Ruiz
26'
M
9
Gonçalo Ramos
F
Gonçalo Ramos
F
49
Ibrahim Mbaye
F
Ibrahim Mbaye
F
6
I. Zabarnyi
D
I. Zabarnyi
D
19
Lee Kang-In
M
Lee Kang-In
M
4
Lucas Beraldo
D
Lucas Beraldo
D
21
Lucas Hernández
11'
D
Lucas Hernández
11'
D
24
Senny Mayulu
11'
M
Senny Mayulu
11'
M
1
Manuel Neuer
G
Manuel Neuer
G
19
Alphonso Davies
45'
D
Alphonso Davies
45'
D
4
Jonathan Tah
D
Jonathan Tah
D
2
D. Upamecano
1 ⚽
D
D. Upamecano
1 ⚽
D
44
Josip Stanišić
D
Josip Stanišić
D
45
A. Pavlović
1 👟
89'
M
A. Pavlović
1 👟
89'
M
6
J. Kimmich
1 👟
M
J. Kimmich
1 👟
M
14
L. Díaz
1 ⚽
M
L. Díaz
1 ⚽
M
10
J. Musiala
79'
M
J. Musiala
79'
M
17
M. Olise
1 ⚽
M
M. Olise
1 ⚽
M
9
H. Kane
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
H. Kane
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
Bench
21
Hiroki Itō
D
Hiroki Itō
D
3
Kim Min-Jae
D
Kim Min-Jae
D
27
K. Laimer
45'
M
K. Laimer
45'
M
8
Leon Goretzka
11'
M
Leon Goretzka
11'
M
11
N. Jackson
1'
F
N. Jackson
1'
F
Best on the pitch
L. Díaz
M · Bayern
8.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 42 pass
H. Kane
F · Bayern
8.60
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 28 pass
K. Kvaratskhelia
F · Paris
8.50
2 ⚽
2 shots
· 19 pass
O. Dembélé
F · Paris
8.20
2 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 8 pass
M. Olise
M · Bayern
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 46 pass
D. Doué
F · Paris
7.30
2 👟
· 18 pass
Paris Saint Germain — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matvey Safonov | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 29 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Nuno Mendes | D | 84 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| Willian Pacho | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 36 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Marquinhos | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 50 | 46% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Hakimi | D | 90 | 6.00 | — | 1 | — | 46 | 42% | 2 | 1 | — |
| João Neves | M | 90 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 26 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Vitinha | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 56 | 48% | 1 | — | — |
| Warren Zaïre-Emery | M | 64 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| K. Kvaratskhelia | F | 84 | 8.50 | 2 | — | 2 | 19 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| O. Dembélé | F | 90 | 8.20 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| D. Doué | F | 70 | 7.30 | — | 2 | — | 18 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| B. Barcola | F | 20 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Fabián Ruiz | M | 26 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Lucas Hernández | D | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Senny Mayulu | M | 11 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
Bayern München — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Neuer | G | 90 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 38 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Alphonso Davies | D | 45 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 24 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Jonathan Tah | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 67 | 63% | — | — | — |
| D. Upamecano | D | 90 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 47 | 40% | 3 | — | — |
| Josip Stanišić | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 37 | 28% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Pavlović | M | 89 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 65 | 62% | 6 | — | — |
| J. Kimmich | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 54 | 49% | — | — | — |
| L. Díaz | M | 90 | 8.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 42 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Musiala | M | 79 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 26 | 23% | 4 | — | — |
| M. Olise | M | 90 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 46 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Kane | F | 90 | 8.60 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Laimer | M | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| Leon Goretzka | M | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| N. Jackson | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Paris Saint Germain vs Bayern München?
The final score was Paris Saint Germain 5–4 Bayern München.
What did the model predict before Paris Saint Germain vs Bayern München?
The model assigned 47% probability to a Paris Saint Germain win, 20% to a draw, and 31% to an Bayern München win.