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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 30 April 19, 2026 20:45 Parc des Princes, Paris
Paris Saint Germain
#6 · 8 pts
1 – 2
Final score
Lyon
#2 · 11 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Paris Saint Germain, result Lyon wins
K. Kvaratskhelia (ast. F. Ruiz) 90'+4
6' (ast. A. Moreira) Endrick
18' (ast. Endrick) A. Moreira
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Paris Saint Germain a 84% win probability (draw 7%, Lyon 7%). The final result was Paris Saint Germain 1–2 Lyon. In 1 previous meetings, Paris Saint Germain have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Lyon.

Match statistics
16
Total shots
5
6
Shots on target
5
2.82
Actual xG
0.70
3
Saves
4
77%
Possession
23%
13
Corners
5
11
Tackles
19
4
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
6'
ast. A. Moreira · Endrick⚽
13'
R. Kluivert
18'
ast. Endrick · A. Moreira⚽
I. Zabarnyi
29'
L. Beraldo
30'
⚽G. Ramos (missed pen.)
33'
33'
P. Fonseca
↕ Vitinha / W. Zaire-Emery
39'
↕ D. Doue / K. Kvaratskhelia
59'
↕ S. Mayulu / Lee Kang-In
59'
↕ G. Ramos / O. Dembele
59'
60'
H. Hateboer / R. Kluivert ↕
Lee Kang-In
65'
L. Hernandez
68'
↕ B. Barcola / F. Ruiz
72'
79'
A. Karabec / Endrick ↕
79'
T. Tessmann / O. Mangala ↕
85'
N. Kamara / K. Merah ↕
⚽K. Kvaratskhelia · ast. F. Ruiz
90'+4
F. Ruiz
90'+5
Pre-match prediction
84.66%
Paris
7.92%
X
7.42%
Lyon ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Lyon) 7.42% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Paris
4.13
2.82
-1.31
Lyon
0.87
0.70
-0.17
Paris Saint Germain dominated by xG (2.82 vs 0.70). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Monaco Monaco 5 13
2 Lyon Lyon 5 11
3 Paris FC Paris FC 5 11
4 Lille Lille 5 10
5 Rennes Rennes 5 10
6 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 5 8
7 Angers Angers 5 7
8 Strasbourg Strasbourg 5 7
9 Le Mans Le Mans 5 6
10 Auxerre Auxerre 5 6
11 Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 5 5
12 Lorient Lorient 5 5
13 Toulouse Toulouse 5 5
14 Nice Nice 5 5
15 Lens Lens 5 4
16 Estac Troyes Estac Troyes 5 4
17 Marseille Marseille 5 3
18 Le Havre Le Havre 5 2
Lineups
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
39 Matvey Safonov Matvey Safonov G 7.20
21 L. Hernández L. Hernández D 7.00
51 Willian Pacho Willian Pacho D 7.20
6 I. Zabarnyi I. Zabarnyi D 7.00
2 A. Hakimi A. Hakimi D 6.30
17 Vitinha Vitinha 39' M 6.50
4 Beraldo Beraldo M 7.20
24 Senny Mayulu Senny Mayulu 59' M 6.20
29 B. Barcola B. Barcola 72' F 6.70
9 Gonçalo Ramos Gonçalo Ramos 59' F 5.90
14 D. Doué D. Doué 59' F 6.90
Bench
8 Fabián Ruiz Fabián Ruiz 1 👟 22' M 7.70
87 João Neves João Neves M
19 Kang-in Lee Kang-in Lee 35' M 6.30
7 K. Kvaratskhelia K. Kvaratskhelia 1 ⚽ 35' F 7.60
5 Marquinhos Marquinhos D
10 O. Dembélé O. Dembélé 35' F 6.50
27 Pedro Fernández Pedro Fernández M
33 W. Zaïre-Emery W. Zaïre-Emery 55' M 7.30
Lyon Lyon 4-3-1-2
1 D. Greif D. Greif G 7.50
21 R. Kluivert R. Kluivert 60' D 6.50
19
D 7.00
22 Clinton Mata Clinton Mata D 7.20
98 A. Maitland-Niles A. Maitland-Niles D 7.20
16 Abner Abner M 6.30
5 O. Mangala O. Mangala 79' M 6.30
23 T. Morton T. Morton M 6.60
44 K. Merah K. Merah 85' M 6.90
17 Afonso Moreira Afonso Moreira 1 ⚽ 1 👟 F 9.20
9 Endrick Endrick 1 ⚽ 1 👟 79' F 8.20
Bench
7 A. Karabec A. Karabec 15' M 6.30
33 H. Hateboer H. Hateboer 34' D 6.60
99 N. Nartey N. Nartey M
18
R. Ghezzal F
77 R. Yaremchuk R. Yaremchuk F
34 Steeve Kango Steeve Kango D
6 T. Tessmann T. Tessmann 15' M 6.30
Best on the pitch
Afonso Moreira
Afonso Moreira
F · Lyon
9.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 21 pass
Endrick
Endrick
F · Lyon
8.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 13 pass
Fabián Ruiz
Fabián Ruiz
M · Paris
7.70
1 👟
· 25 pass
K. Kvaratskhelia
K. Kvaratskhelia
F · Paris
7.60
1 ⚽
3 shots · 25 pass
D. Greif
D. Greif
G · Lyon
7.50
· 25 pass
W. Zaïre-Emery
W. Zaïre-Emery
M · Paris
7.30
· 53 pass
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Matvey Safonov G 94 7.20 — — — 14 14% — — —
L. Hernández D 94 7.00 — — — 94 87% 2 1 —
Willian Pacho D 94 7.20 — — — 122 118% — — —
I. Zabarnyi D 94 7.00 — — — 125 123% 3 1 —
A. Hakimi D 94 6.30 — — — 92 83% 2 — —
Vitinha M 39 6.50 — — — 30 26% — — —
Beraldo M 94 7.20 — — 5 56 51% 3 1 —
Senny Mayulu M 59 6.20 — — 1 30 27% — — —
B. Barcola F 72 6.70 — — 1 29 20% — — —
Gonçalo Ramos F 59 5.90 — — 3 15 11% — — —
D. Doué F 59 6.90 — — 1 40 35% — — —
Fabián Ruiz M 22 7.70 — 1 — 25 23% — — —
Kang-in Lee M 35 6.30 — — — 27 25% — 1 —
K. Kvaratskhelia F 35 7.60 1 — 3 25 24% — — —
O. Dembélé F 35 6.50 — — 2 8 7% — — —
W. Zaïre-Emery M 55 7.30 — — — 53 51% 1 — —
Lyon Lyon — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. Greif G 94 7.50 — — — 25 12% 1 — —
R. Kluivert D 60 6.50 — — — 17 10% 2 1 —
D 94 7.00 — — — 24 21% 1 — —
Clinton Mata D 94 7.20 — — — 21 19% — — —
A. Maitland-Niles D 94 7.20 — — — 16 11% 2 — —
Abner M 94 6.30 — — 1 13 10% 2 — —
O. Mangala M 79 6.30 — — — 21 18% — — —
T. Morton M 94 6.60 — — — 32 23% 2 — —
K. Merah M 85 6.90 — — — 22 18% 4 — —
Afonso Moreira F 94 9.20 1 1 2 21 15% 2 — —
Endrick F 79 8.20 1 1 2 13 8% 2 — —
A. Karabec M 15 6.30 — — — 4 4% — — —
H. Hateboer D 34 6.60 — — — 8 6% 1 — —
T. Tessmann M 15 6.30 — — — 4 4% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
The final score was Paris Saint Germain 1–2 Lyon.
What did the model predict before Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
The model assigned 84% probability to a Paris Saint Germain win, 7% to a draw, and 7% to an Lyon win.