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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 28 April 03, 2026 20:45
Paris Saint Germain
#1 · 76 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Toulouse
#10 · 44 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Paris Saint Germain
O. Dembele 23'
O. Dembele (ast. K. Kvaratskhelia) 33'
G. Ramos (ast. N. Mendes) 90'
27' (ast. D. Sidibe) R. Nicolaisen

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Paris Saint Germain a 80% win probability (draw 11%, Toulouse 7%). The final result was Paris Saint Germain 3–1 Toulouse. In 1 previous meetings, Paris Saint Germain have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Toulouse.

Match statistics
13
Total shots
5
7
Shots on target
1
1.79
Actual xG
0.16
0
Saves
3
72%
Possession
28%
5
Corners
2
21
Tackles
11
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽O. Dembele
23'
27'
ast. D. Sidibe · R. Nicolaisen⚽
⚽O. Dembele · ast. K. Kvaratskhelia
33'
36'
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
↕ Lee Kang-In / J. Neves
59'
↕ L. Beraldo / Vitinha
67'
67'
W. Kamanzi / D. Methalie ↕
↕ K. Kvaratskhelia / N. Mendes
68'
83'
M. Sauer / C. Casseres ↕
83'
I. Azizi / D. Sidibe ↕
83'
J. Russell-Rowe / Emersonn ↕
↕ D. Doue / G. Ramos
87'
⚽G. Ramos · ast. N. Mendes
90'
Pre-match prediction
80.61%
Paris ←
11.44%
X
7.95%
Toulouse
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Paris Saint Germain) 80.61% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Paris
3.26
1.79
-1.48
Toulouse
0.97
0.16
-0.81
Paris Saint Germain dominated by xG (1.79 vs 0.16). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 33 76
1 Rodez Rodez 1 3
2 Lens Lens 33 67
2 RED Star FC 93 RED Star FC 93 1 0
3 Lille Lille 33 61
4 Lyon Lyon 33 60
5 Rennes Rennes 33 59
6 Marseille Marseille 33 56
7 Monaco Monaco 33 54
8 Strasbourg Strasbourg 33 50
9 Lorient Lorient 33 45
10 Toulouse Toulouse 33 44
11 Paris FC Paris FC 33 41
12 Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 33 38
13 Angers Angers 33 35
14 Le Havre Le Havre 33 32
15 Auxerre Auxerre 33 31
16 Nice Nice 33 31
17 Nantes Nantes 33 23
18 Metz Metz 33 16
Lineups
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
39 Matvey Safonov Matvey Safonov G 5.90
21 Lucas Hernández Lucas Hernández D 6.60
51
W. Pacho D 6.90
6 Ilya Zabarnyi Ilya Zabarnyi D 7.00
2 A. Hakimi A. Hakimi D 6.60
14 D. Doué D. Doué 87' M 6.90
4 Lucas Beraldo Lucas Beraldo 67' M 7.00
33
Warren Zaïre-Emery M 7.30
7 Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 1 👟 68' F 8.00
10 Ousmane Dembélé Ousmane Dembélé 2 ⚽ F 8.70
19 Kang-in Lee Kang-in Lee 59' F 7.30
Bench
27 Dro Fernández Dro Fernández M
9 Gonçalo Ramos Gonçalo Ramos 1 ⚽ 7' F 7.30
49 I. Mbaye I. Mbaye F
87 João Neves João Neves 31' M 7.00
5 Marquinhos Marquinhos D
25
N. Mendes 1 👟 22' D 6.70
17 Vitinha Vitinha 23' M 7.30
Toulouse Toulouse 3-4-2-1
1 Guillaume Restes Guillaume Restes G 6.60
2 Rasmus Nicolaisen Rasmus Nicolaisen 1 ⚽ D 7.20
35 Seny Koumbassa Seny Koumbassa D 5.90
3 Mark McKenzie Mark McKenzie D 6.30
24 D. Methalie D. Methalie 67' M 6.30
18 P. Diop P. Diop M 6.30
23 C. Cásseres C. Cásseres 83' M 6.30
19 Djibril Sidibé Djibril Sidibé 1 👟 83' M 6.70
10 Y. Gboho Y. Gboho F 6.20
15 A. Dønnum A. Dønnum F 6.30
20 Emersonn Emersonn 83' F 6.30
Bench
45 Alexis Vossah Alexis Vossah M
13 Jacen Russell Rowe Jacen Russell Rowe 11' F 6.30
7 Julian Vignolo Julian Vignolo F
77
Mario Sauer 11' M 6.20
12 Waren Kamanzi Waren Kamanzi 23' D 6.30
Best on the pitch
Ousmane Dembélé
Ousmane Dembélé
F · Paris
8.70
2 ⚽
3 shots · 53 pass
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
F · Paris
8.00
1 👟
5 shots · 46 pass
Gonçalo Ramos
Gonçalo Ramos
F · Paris
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 2 pass
Warren Zaïre-Emery
M · Paris
7.30
· 75 pass
Kang-in Lee
Kang-in Lee
F · Paris
7.30
· 39 pass
Vitinha
Vitinha
M · Paris
7.30
· 40 pass
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Matvey Safonov G 90 5.90 — — — 28 23% — — —
Lucas Hernández D 90 6.60 — — — 92 83% — — —
W. Pacho D 90 6.90 — — 1 104 101% 2 — —
Ilya Zabarnyi D 90 7.00 — — 1 100 93% 2 — —
A. Hakimi D 90 6.60 — — 1 75 70% — — —
D. Doué M 87 6.90 — — 1 72 60% 2 — —
Lucas Beraldo M 67 7.00 — — — 49 43% 4 — —
Warren Zaïre-Emery M 90 7.30 — — — 75 72% 3 — —
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia F 68 8.00 — 1 5 46 40% 5 — —
Ousmane Dembélé F 90 8.70 2 — 3 53 47% 1 — —
Kang-in Lee F 59 7.30 — — — 39 34% 1 — —
Gonçalo Ramos F 7 7.30 1 — 1 2 2% — — —
João Neves M 31 7.00 — — — 22 22% — — —
N. Mendes D 22 6.70 — 1 — 15 13% — — —
Vitinha M 23 7.30 — — — 40 36% 1 — —
Toulouse Toulouse — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Guillaume Restes G 90 6.60 — — — 23 9% — — —
Rasmus Nicolaisen D 90 7.20 1 — 1 35 30% 1 — —
Seny Koumbassa D 90 5.90 — — — 20 17% 1 — —
Mark McKenzie D 90 6.30 — — — 32 26% — — —
D. Methalie M 67 6.30 — — — 12 9% 1 — —
P. Diop M 90 6.30 — — 2 42 39% 3 — —
C. Cásseres M 83 6.30 — — — 39 32% — 1 —
Djibril Sidibé M 83 6.70 — 1 — 26 19% 1 — —
Y. Gboho F 90 6.20 — — — 19 16% 1 — —
A. Dønnum F 90 6.30 — — 1 27 22% — — —
Emersonn F 83 6.30 — — 1 17 14% 1 — —
Jacen Russell Rowe F 11 6.30 — — — 2 1% — — —
Mario Sauer M 11 6.20 — — — 8 6% 1 — —
Waren Kamanzi D 23 6.30 — — — 8 5% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
The final score was Paris Saint Germain 3–1 Toulouse.
What did the model predict before Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
The model assigned 80% probability to a Paris Saint Germain win, 11% to a draw, and 7% to an Toulouse win.