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Patronato - San Martin Tucuman

Primera Nacional July 05, 2026 20:30
Patronato
#15 · 21 pts
vs
San Martin Tucuman
#9 · 23 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
53.9%
Win
Patronato
30.19%
Draw
15.92%
Win
San Martin Tucuman
1.19
Expected xG
0.44
Most likely result 1–0 (23.3%)
2+ goals
58%
3+ goals
23%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Patronato a 53% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 15% for San Martin Tucuman. Expected goals are 1.2 for Patronato and 0.4 for San Martin Tucuman (total 1.6), with a 57% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 23.3% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Patronato have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for San Martin Tucuman.

Season Stats

Patronato
4W 7D 4L
San Martin Tucuman
4W 6D 5L
Averages per game
0.7
Goals
0.8
0.9
Conceded
0.9
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
73%
13%
O 2.5
7%
33%
BTTS
33%
40%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Primera Nacional. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
78%
O 1.5
11%
O 2.5
0%
O 3.5
39%
BTTS
Patronato
3W 4D 2L · at home
San Martin Tucuman
2W 3D 4L · away
1.0
gls/g
0.7
0.8
Conceded
1.1
33%
Win %
22%
78%
Win or Draw
56%
78%
O 1.5
78%
22%
O 2.5
0%
0%
O 3.5
0%
44%
BTTS
33%
44%
Clean Sht
22%
33%
Failed to Score
44%
last 9
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Patronato San Martin Tucuman →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 19.6% 8.6% 1.9% 0.3% — —
1 23.3% 10.2% 2.2% 0.3% — —
2 13.9% 6.1% 1.3% 0.2% — —
3 5.5% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% — —
4 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% — — —
5 0.4% 0.2% — — — —

Recent form

Patronato Patronato
D Midland 1–1
D Atletico DE Rafaela 0–0
D Agropecuario 1–1
D Tristan Suarez 1–1
L Club Atlético Güemes 1–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 40%
San Martin Tucuman San Martin Tucuman
D Temperley 1–1
L Colegiales 2–0
D Quilmes 0–0
L Midland 2–0
L Atlanta 0–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Patronato Patronato
Attack
24
Defence
81
Form
50
San Martin Tucuman San Martin Tucuman
Attack
15
Defence
75
Form
42
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Patronato
1
Draw
0
San Martin Tucuman
15 Feb 2026 Primera Nacional 0–0

Group 2

# Team G Pts
1 Gimnasia Jujuy Gimnasia Jujuy 18 36
2 Atlanta Atlanta 18 33
3 Tristan Suarez Tristan Suarez 18 30
4 Atletico DE Rafaela Atletico DE Rafaela 18 27
5 Temperley Temperley 18 27
6 Midland Midland 18 26
7 San Martin S.J. San Martin S.J. 17 23
8 Colegiales Colegiales 18 23
9 San Martin Tucuman San Martin Tucuman 18 23
10 Deportivo Maipu Deportivo Maipu 18 22
11 Nueva Chicago Nueva Chicago 17 22
12 Almagro Almagro 18 22
13 Quilmes Quilmes 18 21
14 Gimnasia Y Tiro Gimnasia Y Tiro 18 21
15 Patronato Patronato 18 21
16 Chacarita Juniors Chacarita Juniors 18 19
17 Club Atlético Güemes Club Atlético Güemes 18 19
18 Agropecuario Agropecuario 18 18

What's at stake · Group 2

Top 2 advance to the next round

Patronato San Martin Tucuman
Current #15 #9
→ Patronato #7 #10
→ Draw #12 #7
→ San Martin Tucuman #15 #7

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Patronato vs San Martin Tucuman?
The model gives Patronato a 53% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 15% for an San Martin Tucuman win.
How many goals are expected in Patronato vs San Martin Tucuman?
Expected goals: Patronato 1.2, San Martin Tucuman 0.4 (total 1.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 57%.
What is the most likely score in Patronato vs San Martin Tucuman?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 23.3%.