Skip to main content
← Taça de Portugal

Penafiel - Leça

⚡ Pre-match analysis
48.8%
Win
Penafiel
25.19%
Draw
26.01%
Win
Leça
2.38
Expected xG
1.25

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (10.06%)
1X2 Result
1 49%
X 25%
2 26%
Double Chance
1X 74%
X2 51%
12 75%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 64%
✓ 63.6% hit rate (44 picks)
Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Penafiel a 48% win probability, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Leça. Expected goals are 2.4 for Penafiel and 1.3 for Leça (total 3.6), with a 81% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.06% probability.

Season Stats

Penafiel
1W 1D 0L
Leça
1W 0D 1L
Averages per game
1.5
Goals
1.0
1.0
Conceded
1.0
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
0%
100%
BTTS
0%
0%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ Based on the last 2 matches in Taça de Portugal. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Score Matrix

↕ Penafiel Leça →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.6% 3.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
1 6.3% 7.9% 5.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2%
2 7.5% 9.4% 5.9% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
3 5.9% 7.4% 4.7% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
4 3.5% 4.4% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
5 1.7% 2.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% —

Recent form

W Oliveirense 1–2
D Portimonense B 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 26%
W Mortágua 0–2
L Rebordosa 2–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 24%

Playing profile

Penafiel Penafiel
Attack
45
Defence
70
Form
67
Leça Leça
Attack
31
Defence
64
Form
55
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Penafiel vs Leça?
The model gives Penafiel a 48% win probability, 25% for a draw, and 26% for an Leça win.
How many goals are expected in Penafiel vs Leça?
Expected goals: Penafiel 2.4, Leça 1.3 (total 3.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 81%.
What is the most likely score in Penafiel vs Leça?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.06%.