✗Model wrong — prediction Penarol, result Club Nacional wins
24'
F. Calvo
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Penarol a 73% win probability (draw 16%, Club Nacional 9%). The final result was Penarol 0–1 Club Nacional. In 1 previous meetings, Penarol have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Club Nacional.
Match statistics
Match Events
14'
M. Silvera
/
M. Gomez
24'
F. Calvo⚽
L. Ferreira
39'
45'+3
L. Rodriguez
46'
C. Candido
/
R. Martinez
L. Ferreira
/ B. Barboza
46'
T. N. Espinosa Dovat
/ Lucas Hernandez
58'
A. Hernandez
/ G. Gelini
58'
62'
B. Zuculini
/
L. Rodriguez
74'
L. Gonzalez
/
S. Silva
74'
N. Rodriguez
/
E. Ancheta
J. Cabrera
/ L. Angulo
74'
N. Fernandez
/ E. Remedi
74'
E. Darias
75'
79'
F. Calvo
84'
L. Mejia
C. Jaime
90'+1
Pre-match prediction
73.58%
Penarol
16.65%
X
9.77%
Club ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Club Nacional)
9.77%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.12
—
—
0.51
—
—
Lineups
29
W. Aguerre
G
15
M. Olivera
D
3
M. Lemos
D
6
L. Ferreira
D
26
Thiago Nahuel Espinosa Dovat
M
13
E. Darias
M
8
N. Fernández
M
7
J. Cabrera
M
11
C. Jaime
F
99
A. Hernández
F
19
M. Arezo
F
Bench
36
B. Barboza
D
93
D. Laxalt
M
5
E. Remedi
M
9
F. Batista
F
4
F. Romero
D
23
Gonzalo Gelini
F
77
L. Angulo
M
27
L. Hernández
D
32
L. Umpiérrez
M
1
S. Britos
G
1
L. Mejía
G
32
T. Viera
D
5
F. Calvo
1 ⚽
D
F. Calvo
1 ⚽
D
4
S. Coates
D
13
E. Ancheta
D
23
L. Rodríguez
M
31
R. Martinez
M
8
S. Silva
M
6
L. Boggio
M
15
G. Martirena
M
9
M. Gómez
F
Bench
22
A. Martín Arias
G
2
A. Rogel
D
36
B. Zuculini
M
21
C. Cándido
D
19
J. de los Santos
M
J. de los Santos
M
39
L. Gonzalez
M
11
M. Silvera
F
7
N. Rodríguez
D
20
R. Botta
F
29
T. Correa
F
Penarol — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Aguerre | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Olivera | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Lemos | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Ferreira | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Nahuel Espinosa Dovat | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Darias | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Fernández | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Cabrera | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Jaime | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Hernández | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Arezo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Club Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Mejía | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Viera | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Calvo | D | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Coates | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Ancheta | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Rodríguez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Martinez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Silva | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Boggio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Martirena | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Gómez | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Penarol vs Club Nacional?
The final score was Penarol 0–1 Club Nacional.
What did the model predict before Penarol vs Club Nacional?
The model assigned 73% probability to a Penarol win, 16% to a draw, and 9% to an Club Nacional win.