Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 2
April 17, 2026 02:30
M. Arezo
(ast. L. Angulo)
58'
22'
(ast. T. Silva)
G. Mainero
(pen.)
63'
F. Zapiola
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Penarol a 45% win probability (draw 34%, Platense 19%). The final result was Penarol 1–2 Platense. In 1 previous meetings, Penarol have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Platense.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
5
5
Shots on target
3
0.56
Actual xG
1.08
1
Saves
4
52%
Possession
48%
1
Corners
0
21
Tackles
16
5
🟨 Yellow cards
5
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
22'
ast. T. Silva ·
G. Mainero⚽
F. Escobar
26'
33'
T. Nasif
45'+3
F. Zapiola
Jesus Trindade
/ L. Umpierrez
46'
L. Ferreira
55'
⚽M. Arezo
· ast. L. Angulo
58'
60'
G. Mainero
M. Olivera
60'
63'
(pen.)
F. Zapiola⚽
67'
G. Lencina
/
T. Nasif
67'
S. Dalmasso
/
F. Zapiola
E. Darias
/ A. Hernandez
74'
75'
A. Lagos
/
K. Retamar
E. Remedi
81'
84'
I. Gomez
/
G. Mainero
84'
C. Ingenthron
/
P. Ferreira
N. Fernandez
/ F. Gonzalez
84'
90'+5
M. Mendia
F. Escobar
90'+7
F. Escobar
90'+7
90'+8
C. Ingenthron
Pre-match prediction
45.82%
Penarol
34.2%
X
19.97%
Platense ←
we assigned to the actual result (Platense)
19.97%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.04
0.56
-0.48
0.44
1.08
+0.64
Platense dominated by xG (1.08 vs 0.56).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
15
M. Olivera
D
6
L. Ferreira
D
3
Mauricio Lemos
D
2
F. Escobar
D
F. Escobar
D
5
E. Remedi
M
13
E. Darias
74'
M
21
Jesús Trindade
45'
M
8
N. Fernández
84'
M
77
L. Angulo
1 👟
M
19
M. Arezo
1 ⚽
F
Bench
11
Abel Hernández
25'
F
93
D. Laxalt
D
9
F. Batista
F
80
Franco González
15'
M
23
Gastón Togni
F
Gastón Togni
F
14
Kevin Rodríguez
D
32
L. Umpiérrez
54'
M
25
Matías González
D
20
G
3
Tomás Ariel Silva
1 👟
D
Tomás Ariel Silva
1 👟
D
31
Víctor Cuesta
D
Víctor Cuesta
D
34
Mateo Mendia
D
Mateo Mendia
D
6
E. Raggio
D
E. Raggio
D
15
Maximiliano Amarfil
M
Maximiliano Amarfil
M
26
Pablo Ferreira
84'
M
Pablo Ferreira
84'
M
10
Franco Zapiola
1 ⚽
67'
M
Franco Zapiola
1 ⚽
67'
M
43
Nicolás Retamar
75'
M
Nicolás Retamar
75'
M
7
G. Mainero
1 ⚽
84'
M
G. Mainero
1 ⚽
84'
M
9
T. Nasif
67'
F
Bench
4
Agustín Lagos
24'
D
Agustín Lagos
24'
D
18
Bautista Merlini
F
Bautista Merlini
F
38
Celías Ingenthron
15'
D
Celías Ingenthron
15'
D
99
Gonzalo Lencina
32'
F
Gonzalo Lencina
32'
F
5
Ivan Gómez
15'
M
Ivan Gómez
15'
M
33
Juan Gauto
F
Juan Gauto
F
24
Martín Barrios
M
Martín Barrios
M
Best on the pitch
M. Arezo
F · Penarol
7.50
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 12 pass
G · Platense
7.30
· 32 pass
Maximiliano Amarfil
M · Platense
7.20
· 45 pass
G. Mainero
M · Platense
7.00
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 18 pass
Tomás Ariel Silva
D · Platense
7.00
1 👟
· 20 pass
L. Umpiérrez
M · Penarol
6.90
· 16 pass
Penarol — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 99 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 15% | — | — | — | |
| M. Olivera | D | 99 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 20% | — | 1 | — |
| L. Ferreira | D | 99 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 34% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Mauricio Lemos | D | 99 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 58 | 42% | — | — | — |
| F. Escobar | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 24 | 18% | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| E. Remedi | M | 99 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 34 | 22% | 3 | 1 | — |
| E. Darias | M | 74 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| Jesús Trindade | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| N. Fernández | M | 84 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 14% | 4 | — | — |
| L. Angulo | M | 99 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 13 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Arezo | F | 99 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 3 | 12 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Abel Hernández | F | 25 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Franco González | M | 15 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | — | — | — |
| L. Umpiérrez | M | 54 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
Platense — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 99 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 32 | 16% | — | — | — | |
| Tomás Ariel Silva | D | 99 | 7.00 | — | 1 | — | 20 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Víctor Cuesta | D | 99 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 29 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Mateo Mendia | D | 99 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 19% | — | 1 | — |
| E. Raggio | D | 99 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| Maximiliano Amarfil | M | 99 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 45 | 36% | 4 | — | — |
| Pablo Ferreira | M | 84 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| Franco Zapiola | M | 67 | 6.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 15 | 13% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Nicolás Retamar | M | 75 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 13% | — | — | — |
| G. Mainero | M | 84 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 3 | 18 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| T. Nasif | F | 67 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 7% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Agustín Lagos | D | 24 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Celías Ingenthron | D | 15 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Gonzalo Lencina | F | 32 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Ivan Gómez | M | 15 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Penarol vs Platense?
The final score was Penarol 1–2 Platense.
What did the model predict before Penarol vs Platense?
The model assigned 45% probability to a Penarol win, 34% to a draw, and 19% to an Platense win.