Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 6
May 28, 2026 02:30
13'
(ast. N. Bustos)
A. Zapata
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Penarol a 40% win probability (draw 30%, Santa Fe 28%). The final result was Penarol 0–1 Santa Fe. In 1 previous meetings, Penarol have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Santa Fe.
Match statistics
18
Total shots
4
4
Shots on target
3
0.93
Actual xG
0.30
1
Saves
4
62%
Possession
38%
9
Corners
2
27
Tackles
18
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
13'
ast. N. Bustos ·
A. Zapata⚽
L. Angulo
/ E. Darias
24'
B. Barboza
/ E. Gularte
46'
D. Laxalt
/ A. Hernandez
46'
F. Escobar
/ Lucas Hernandez
46'
46'
J. Obrian
/
Y. A. Perlaza Perea
E. Gularte
53'
60'
Y. Velasquez
/
N. Bustos
65'
L. Palacios
/
A. Zapata
M. Lemos
/ J. Cabrera
69'
72'
M. Puerta
74'
I. R. Scarpeta Silgado
/
M. Puerta
J. Cabrera
82'
83'
J. Angulo
Pre-match prediction
40.43%
Penarol
30.75%
X
28.81%
Santa ←
we assigned to the actual result (Santa Fe)
28.81%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.00
0.93
-0.07
0.84
0.30
-0.54
Penarol dominated by xG (0.93 vs 0.30).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
29
W. Aguerre
G
2
F. Escobar
45'
D
F. Escobar
45'
D
6
L. Ferreira
D
3
Mauricio Lemos
69'
D
36
B. Barboza
45'
D
21
Jesús Trindade
M
32
L. Umpiérrez
M
93
D. Laxalt
45'
M
8
N. Fernández
M
77
L. Angulo
24'
M
19
M. Arezo
F
Bench
11
Abel Hernández
50'
F
13
E. Darias
71'
M
4
Emanuel Gularte
50'
D
5
E. Remedi
M
9
F. Batista
F
23
Gastón Togni
F
Gastón Togni
F
7
J. Cabrera
26'
F
14
Kevin Rodríguez
D
27
L. Hernández
50'
D
1
S. Britos
G
30
S. Mülhethaler
M
16
Tomas Olase
M
1
A. Mosquera
G
A. Mosquera
G
24
Jeison Angulo
D
Jeison Angulo
D
3
V. Moreno
D
V. Moreno
D
18
E. Olivera
D
E. Olivera
D
4
M. Puerta
74'
D
M. Puerta
74'
D
16
D. Torres
M
D. Torres
M
7
Jhojan Torres
M
Jhojan Torres
M
10
A. Zapata
1 ⚽
65'
M
A. Zapata
1 ⚽
65'
M
19
N. Bustos
1 👟
60'
M
N. Bustos
1 👟
60'
M
27
Y. Perlaza
45'
M
Y. Perlaza
45'
M
11
H. Rodallega
F
H. Rodallega
F
Bench
22
E. Mosquera
M
21
E. Murillo
M
E. Murillo
M
9
F. Fagúndez
F
F. Fagúndez
F
15
I. Scarpeta
21'
D
I. Scarpeta
21'
D
77
J. Obrian
50'
F
J. Obrian
50'
F
14
L. Palacios
30'
F
L. Palacios
30'
F
17
M. Lovera
F
M. Lovera
F
12
Weibmar Asprilla
G
Weibmar Asprilla
G
20
Yilmar Velázquez
35'
D
Yilmar Velázquez
35'
D
Best on the pitch
A. Zapata
M · Santa
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 25 pass
Mauricio Lemos
D · Penarol
7.60
1 shots
· 43 pass
L. Ferreira
D · Penarol
7.30
1 shots
· 67 pass
A. Mosquera
G · Santa
7.30
· 30 pass
N. Fernández
M · Penarol
7.20
3 shots
· 54 pass
M. Arezo
F · Penarol
7.20
2 shots
· 37 pass
Penarol — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Aguerre | G | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 5% | — | — | — |
| F. Escobar | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Ferreira | D | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 67 | 58% | 5 | — | — |
| Mauricio Lemos | D | 69 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 37% | 3 | — | — |
| B. Barboza | D | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Jesús Trindade | M | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 49 | 42% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Umpiérrez | M | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | 3 | 41 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Laxalt | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 12 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Fernández | M | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 54 | 46% | 7 | — | — |
| L. Angulo | M | 24 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Arezo | F | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 37 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Abel Hernández | F | 50 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
| E. Darias | M | 71 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 31 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| Emanuel Gularte | D | 50 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 19% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Cabrera | F | 26 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 4% | 1 | 1 | — |
| L. Hernández | D | 50 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 10% | — | — | — |
Santa Fe — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Mosquera | G | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 30 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Jeison Angulo | D | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 28 | 17% | — | 1 | — |
| V. Moreno | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 14% | — | — | — |
| E. Olivera | D | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 28 | 18% | — | — | — |
| M. Puerta | D | 74 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 21 | 12% | 2 | 1 | — |
| D. Torres | M | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| Jhojan Torres | M | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 37 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Zapata | M | 65 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 25 | 17% | 5 | — | — |
| N. Bustos | M | 60 | 6.30 | — | 1 | — | 16 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Y. Perlaza | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 9 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Rodallega | F | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 27 | 16% | — | — | — |
| I. Scarpeta | D | 21 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| J. Obrian | F | 50 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 5% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Palacios | F | 30 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Yilmar Velázquez | D | 35 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Penarol vs Santa Fe?
The final score was Penarol 0–1 Santa Fe.
What did the model predict before Penarol vs Santa Fe?
The model assigned 40% probability to a Penarol win, 30% to a draw, and 28% to an Santa Fe win.