Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 6
May 28, 2026 02:30
13'
(ast. N. Bustos)
A. Zapata
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Penarol a 40% win probability (draw 30%, Santa Fe 28%). The final result was Penarol 0–1 Santa Fe. In 1 previous meetings, Penarol have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Santa Fe.
Match statistics
18
Total shots
4
4
Shots on target
3
0.93
Actual xG
0.30
1
Saves
4
62%
Possession
38%
9
Corners
2
27
Tackles
18
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
13'
ast. N. Bustos ·
A. Zapata⚽
L. Angulo
/ E. Darias
24'
B. Barboza
/ E. Gularte
46'
D. Laxalt
/ A. Hernandez
46'
F. Escobar
/ Lucas Hernandez
46'
46'
J. Obrian
/
Y. A. Perlaza Perea
E. Gularte
53'
60'
Y. Velasquez
/
N. Bustos
65'
L. Palacios
/
A. Zapata
M. Lemos
/ J. Cabrera
69'
72'
M. Puerta
74'
I. R. Scarpeta Silgado
/
M. Puerta
J. Cabrera
82'
83'
J. Angulo
Pre-match prediction
40.43%
Penarol
30.75%
X
28.81%
Santa ←
we assigned to the actual result (Santa Fe)
28.81%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.00
0.93
-0.07
0.84
0.30
-0.54
Penarol dominated by xG (0.93 vs 0.30).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
29
Washington Aguerre
G
2
Franco Escobar
45'
D
Franco Escobar
45'
D
6
L. Ferreira
D
3
Mauricio Lemos
69'
D
36
Brian Barboza
45'
D
21
Jesús Trindade
M
32
Leandro Umpierrez
M
93
Diego Laxalt
45'
M
8
Nicolás Fernández
M
77
Luis Miguel Angulo
24'
M
Luis Miguel Angulo
24'
M
19
M. Arezo
F
Bench
11
Abel Hernández
50'
F
13
Eduardo Darias
71'
M
4
Emanuel Gularte
50'
D
5
E. Remedi
M
9
Facundo Batista
F
23
Gastón Togni
F
7
Javier Cabrera
26'
F
14
Kevin Rodríguez
D
27
Lucas Hernández
50'
D
1
Sebastián Britos
G
30
Stiven Muhlethaler
M
16
Tomas Olase
M
1
Andrés Mosquera
G
Andrés Mosquera
G
24
Jeison Angulo
D
Jeison Angulo
D
3
V. Moreno
D
V. Moreno
D
18
Emanuel Olivera
D
Emanuel Olivera
D
4
Mateo Puerta
74'
D
Mateo Puerta
74'
D
16
D. Torres
M
D. Torres
M
7
Jhojan Torres
M
Jhojan Torres
M
10
Alexis Zapata
1 ⚽
65'
M
Alexis Zapata
1 ⚽
65'
M
19
N. Bustos
1 👟
60'
M
N. Bustos
1 👟
60'
M
27
Yeicar Perlaza
45'
M
Yeicar Perlaza
45'
M
11
H. Rodallega
F
H. Rodallega
F
Bench
22
Edwin Mosquera
M
Edwin Mosquera
M
21
Ewil Murillo Renteria
M
Ewil Murillo Renteria
M
9
Franco Fagúndez
F
Franco Fagúndez
F
15
Ivan Scarpeta
21'
D
Ivan Scarpeta
21'
D
77
Jader Obrian
50'
F
Jader Obrian
50'
F
14
Luis Angel Palacios
30'
F
Luis Angel Palacios
30'
F
17
Maximiliano Lovera
F
Maximiliano Lovera
F
12
Weibmar Asprilla
G
Weibmar Asprilla
G
20
Yilmar Velázquez
35'
D
Yilmar Velázquez
35'
D
Best on the pitch
Alexis Zapata
M · Santa
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 25 pass
Mauricio Lemos
D · Penarol
7.60
1 shots
· 43 pass
L. Ferreira
D · Penarol
7.30
1 shots
· 67 pass
Andrés Mosquera
G · Santa
7.30
· 30 pass
Nicolás Fernández
M · Penarol
7.20
3 shots
· 54 pass
M. Arezo
F · Penarol
7.20
2 shots
· 37 pass
Penarol — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Aguerre | G | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Franco Escobar | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Ferreira | D | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 67 | 58% | 5 | — | — |
| Mauricio Lemos | D | 69 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 37% | 3 | — | — |
| Brian Barboza | D | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Jesús Trindade | M | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 49 | 42% | 3 | — | — |
| Leandro Umpierrez | M | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | 3 | 41 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| Diego Laxalt | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 12 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Nicolás Fernández | M | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 54 | 46% | 7 | — | — |
| Luis Miguel Angulo | M | 24 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Arezo | F | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 37 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Abel Hernández | F | 50 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Eduardo Darias | M | 71 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 31 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| Emanuel Gularte | D | 50 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 19% | — | 1 | — |
| Javier Cabrera | F | 26 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 4% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Lucas Hernández | D | 50 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 10% | — | — | — |
Santa Fe — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrés Mosquera | G | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 30 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Jeison Angulo | D | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 28 | 17% | — | 1 | — |
| V. Moreno | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Emanuel Olivera | D | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 28 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Mateo Puerta | D | 74 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 21 | 12% | 2 | 1 | — |
| D. Torres | M | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| Jhojan Torres | M | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 37 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| Alexis Zapata | M | 65 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 25 | 17% | 5 | — | — |
| N. Bustos | M | 60 | 6.30 | — | 1 | — | 16 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Yeicar Perlaza | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 9 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Rodallega | F | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 27 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Ivan Scarpeta | D | 21 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Jader Obrian | F | 50 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 5% | 2 | — | — |
| Luis Angel Palacios | F | 30 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Yilmar Velázquez | D | 35 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Penarol vs Santa Fe?
The final score was Penarol 0–1 Santa Fe.
What did the model predict before Penarol vs Santa Fe?
The model assigned 40% probability to a Penarol win, 30% to a draw, and 28% to an Santa Fe win.