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MLS · Regular Season - 16 July 23, 2026 01:30
Philadelphia Union
#6 · 47 pts
3 – 1
Final score
New York Red Bulls
#10 · 39 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Philadelphia Union
M. Iloski 9'
I. Vassilev (ast. F. Westfield) 57'
N. Pierre (ast. K. Wagner) 66'
38' (ast. E. Forsberg) C. Cowell
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Philadelphia Union a 66% win probability (draw 16%, New York Red Bulls 17%). The final result was Philadelphia Union 3–1 New York Red Bulls. In 1 previous meetings, Philadelphia Union have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for New York Red Bulls.

Match statistics
20
Total shots
8
10
Shots on target
5
3.10
Actual xG
0.81
4
Saves
6
36%
Possession
64%
8
Corners
6
13
Tackles
7
0
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽M. Iloski
9'
38'
ast. E. Forsberg · C. Cowell⚽
46'
O. Valencia / M. Dos Santos ↕
↕ J. Sery Larsen / N. Pierre
56'
⚽I. Vassilev · ast. F. Westfield
57'
⚽N. Pierre · ast. K. Wagner
66'
↕ I. Vassilev / Q. Sullivan
73'
74'
J. Bazan / J. Marshall-Rutty ↕
74'
G. Berggren / E. Forsberg ↕
74'
M. Sofo / C. Cowell ↕
77'
R. Donkor
↕ M. Iloski / E. Alladoh
85'
↕ C. Sullivan / J. Bueno
85'
85'
O. Valencia
88'
G. Berggren
Pre-match prediction
66.64%
Philadelphia ←
16.35%
X
17.0%
New
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Philadelphia Union) 66.64% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Philadelphia
2.95
3.10
+0.15
New
1.22
0.81
-0.41
Philadelphia Union dominated by xG (3.10 vs 0.81). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Nashville SC Nashville SC 33 74
2 Inter Miami Inter Miami 33 59
3 New England Revolution New England Revolution 33 58
4 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 33 55
5 Charlotte Charlotte 33 53
6 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 33 47
7 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 33 46
8 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 33 44
9 Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 33 43
10 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 33 39
11 New York City FC New York City FC 33 39
12 Toronto FC Toronto FC 33 39
13 Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 33 33
14 DC United DC United 33 33
15 CF Montreal CF Montreal 33 26
Lineups
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
18 A. Blake A. Blake G 6.70
27 K. Wagner K. Wagner 1 👟 D 7.20
5 J. Sery Larsen J. Sery Larsen 56' D 6.20
26 N. Harriel N. Harriel D 7.20
39 F. Westfield F. Westfield 1 👟 D 6.90
19 I. Vassilev I. Vassilev 1 ⚽ 73' M 7.30
4 J. Lukić J. Lukić M 6.50
21 D. Jean-Jacques D. Jean-Jacques M 7.30
6 Cavan Sullivan Cavan Sullivan 85' M 7.90
10 M. Iloski M. Iloski 1 ⚽ 85' F 8.00
9 B. Damiani B. Damiani F 7.50
Bench
28 A. Anello A. Anello F
11 A. Bedoya A. Bedoya M
76 A. Rick A. Rick G
16 B. Bender B. Bender M
23 E. Alladoh E. Alladoh 15' F 6.70
2 G. Martínez G. Martínez D
8 J. Bueno J. Bueno 15' M 6.60
44 Neil Pierre Neil Pierre 1 ⚽ 34' D 7.90
33 Q. Sullivan Q. Sullivan 17' M 6.90
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 4-3-3
34 E. Horvath E. Horvath G 8.20
56 Matthew Dos Santos Matthew Dos Santos 45' D 6.30
12 D. Nealis D. Nealis D 6.00
2 J. Che J. Che D 6.60
3 J. Marshall-Rutty J. Marshall-Rutty 74' D 6.30
10 E. Forsberg E. Forsberg 1 👟 74' M 6.20
15 A. Mehmeti A. Mehmeti M 6.20
48 R. Donkor R. Donkor M 6.70
11 J. Ruvalcaba J. Ruvalcaba F 6.50
16 J. Hall J. Hall F 6.70
7 C. Cowell C. Cowell 1 ⚽ 74' F 7.20
Bench
70 A. Rojas A. Rojas F
4 G. Berggren G. Berggren 16' M 6.20
14 J. Bazán J. Bazán 16' D 6.90
77 J. McCarthy J. McCarthy G
91 M. Jimenez M. Jimenez F
37 M. Sofo M. Sofo 16' F 6.30
80 Nathan Worth Nathan Worth M
5 Omar Valencia Omar Valencia 45' D 6.20
26 T. Parker T. Parker D
Best on the pitch
E. Horvath
E. Horvath
G · New
8.20
· 25 pass
M. Iloski
M. Iloski
F · Philadelphia
8.00
1 ⚽
4 shots · 16 pass
Neil Pierre
Neil Pierre
D · Philadelphia
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots · 7 pass
Cavan Sullivan
Cavan Sullivan
M · Philadelphia
7.90
2 shots · 18 pass
B. Damiani
B. Damiani
F · Philadelphia
7.50
3 shots · 27 pass
I. Vassilev
I. Vassilev
M · Philadelphia
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 17 pass
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
A. Blake G 90 6.70 — — — 27 12% — — —
K. Wagner D 90 7.20 — 1 1 38 20% 2 — —
J. Sery Larsen D 56 6.20 — — — 12 9% 1 — —
N. Harriel D 90 7.20 — — — 22 13% — — —
F. Westfield D 90 6.90 — 1 2 26 20% 1 — —
I. Vassilev M 73 7.30 1 — 2 17 13% 1 — —
J. Lukić M 90 6.50 — — — 26 21% — — —
D. Jean-Jacques M 90 7.30 — — 2 28 22% 2 — —
Cavan Sullivan M 85 7.90 — — 2 18 12% 2 — —
M. Iloski F 85 8.00 1 — 4 16 13% — — —
B. Damiani F 90 7.50 — — 3 27 17% 2 — —
E. Alladoh F 15 6.70 — — — 3 3% — — —
J. Bueno M 15 6.60 — — — 6 6% — — —
Neil Pierre D 34 7.90 1 — 3 7 4% — — —
Q. Sullivan M 17 6.90 — — 1 7 6% 2 — —
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
E. Horvath G 90 8.20 — — — 25 19% — — —
Matthew Dos Santos D 45 6.30 — — — 24 15% 2 — —
D. Nealis D 90 6.00 — — 2 83 75% 1 — —
J. Che D 90 6.60 — — — 76 62% 1 — —
J. Marshall-Rutty D 74 6.30 — — 1 40 34% 1 — —
E. Forsberg M 74 6.20 — 1 — 27 18% — — —
A. Mehmeti M 90 6.20 — — — 58 52% — — —
R. Donkor M 90 6.70 — — — 42 37% — 1 —
J. Ruvalcaba F 90 6.50 — — 2 27 22% — — —
J. Hall F 90 6.70 — — 1 18 11% — — —
C. Cowell F 74 7.20 1 — 1 17 13% — — —
G. Berggren M 16 6.20 — — — 10 9% — 1 —
J. Bazán D 16 6.90 — — 1 17 16% 1 — —
M. Sofo F 16 6.30 — — — 14 13% — — —
Omar Valencia D 45 6.20 — — — 36 34% 1 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls?
The final score was Philadelphia Union 3–1 New York Red Bulls.
What did the model predict before Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls?
The model assigned 66% probability to a Philadelphia Union win, 16% to a draw, and 17% to an New York Red Bulls win.