Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 4
May 08, 2026 00:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Platense, result Draw
Agustín Lagos
(ast. Franco Zapiola)
39'
29'
(ast. Diego Laxalt)
Facundo Batista
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Platense a 55% win probability (draw 26%, Penarol 18%). The final result was Platense 1–1 Penarol. In 1 previous meetings, Platense have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Penarol.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
5
3
Shots on target
4
1.23
Actual xG
0.42
3
Saves
2
59%
Possession
41%
4
Corners
3
13
Tackles
22
2
🟨 Yellow cards
6
Match Events
13'
Diego Laxalt
/
Eric Remedi
14'
Lucas Ferreira
Tomas Nasif
/ Augusto Lotti
17'
29'
ast. Diego Laxalt ·
Facundo Batista⚽
30'
Facundo Batista
Guido Mainero
34'
34'
Mauricio Lemos
⚽Agustín Lagos
· ast. Franco Zapiola
39'
Franco Zapiola
41'
45'
Maximiliano Olivera
46'
Gastón Togni
/
Facundo Batista
59'
Nicolás Fernández
76'
Abel Hernández
/
Leandro Umpierrez
Franco Zapiola
/ Ivan Gómez
77'
Augusto Lotti
/ Gonzalo Lencina
79'
Guido Mainero
/ Mateo Mendia
80'
Nicolás Retamar
/ Juan Gauto
87'
Maximiliano Amarfil
/ Martín Barrios
87'
90'+8
Washington Aguerre
Pre-match prediction
55.25%
Platense
26.39%
X ←
18.36%
Penarol
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
26.39%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.42
1.23
-0.2
0.62
0.42
-0.2
Platense dominated by xG (1.23 vs 0.42).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
20
G
3
Tomás Ariel Silva
D
Tomás Ariel Silva
D
31
Víctor Cuesta
D
Víctor Cuesta
D
13
Ignacio Vazquez
D
Ignacio Vazquez
D
4
Agustín Lagos
1 ⚽
D
Agustín Lagos
1 ⚽
D
26
Pablo Ferreira
M
Pablo Ferreira
M
15
Maximiliano Amarfil
87'
M
Maximiliano Amarfil
87'
M
10
Franco Zapiola
1 👟
77'
M
Franco Zapiola
1 👟
77'
M
43
Nicolás Retamar
87'
M
Nicolás Retamar
87'
M
7
G. Mainero
80'
M
G. Mainero
80'
M
9
T. Nasif
17'
F
Bench
21
Augusto Lotti
62'
F
Augusto Lotti
62'
F
18
Bautista Merlini
F
Bautista Merlini
F
6
E. Raggio
D
E. Raggio
D
99
Gonzalo Lencina
11'
F
Gonzalo Lencina
11'
F
5
Ivan Gómez
13'
M
Ivan Gómez
13'
M
25
J. Saborido
D
J. Saborido
D
33
Juan Gauto
12'
F
Juan Gauto
12'
F
24
Martín Barrios
12'
M
Martín Barrios
12'
M
34
Mateo Mendia
10'
D
Mateo Mendia
10'
D
29
W. Aguerre
G
2
F. Escobar
D
F. Escobar
D
3
Mauricio Lemos
D
6
L. Ferreira
D
15
M. Olivera
M
21
Jesús Trindade
M
5
E. Remedi
13'
M
8
N. Fernández
M
32
L. Umpiérrez
76'
F
19
M. Arezo
F
9
F. Batista
1 ⚽
45'
F
Bench
11
Abel Hernández
14'
F
36
B. Barboza
D
93
D. Laxalt
1 👟
77'
D
22
Facundo Alvez
D
Facundo Alvez
D
23
Gastón Togni
45'
F
Gastón Togni
45'
F
14
Kevin Rodríguez
D
25
Matías González
D
Best on the pitch
Víctor Cuesta
D · Platense
7.30
· 34 pass
Agustín Lagos
D · Platense
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 40 pass
F. Batista
F · Penarol
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 3 pass
L. Ferreira
D · Penarol
7.30
· 25 pass
D. Laxalt
D · Penarol
7.20
1 👟
· 16 pass
Franco Zapiola
M · Platense
7.00
1 👟
1 shots
· 28 pass
Platense — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 16 | 4% | — | — | — | |
| Tomás Ariel Silva | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Víctor Cuesta | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| Ignacio Vazquez | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 41 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| Agustín Lagos | D | 90 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 40 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| Pablo Ferreira | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 30 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| Maximiliano Amarfil | M | 87 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 49 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| Franco Zapiola | M | 77 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 1 | 28 | 17% | — | 1 | — |
| Nicolás Retamar | M | 87 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 15% | — | — | — |
| G. Mainero | M | 80 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 19% | 1 | 1 | — |
| T. Nasif | F | 17 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Augusto Lotti | F | 62 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Gonzalo Lencina | F | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Ivan Gómez | M | 13 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Juan Gauto | F | 12 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
| Martín Barrios | M | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Mateo Mendia | D | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | — |
Penarol — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Aguerre | G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| F. Escobar | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Mauricio Lemos | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 24 | 12% | 1 | 1 | — |
| L. Ferreira | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 25 | 10% | 2 | 1 | — |
| M. Olivera | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 13% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Jesús Trindade | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 15% | 4 | — | — |
| E. Remedi | M | 13 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Fernández | M | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 27 | 13% | 2 | 1 | — |
| L. Umpiérrez | F | 76 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 12 | 7% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Arezo | F | 90 | 5.70 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 7% | — | — | — |
| F. Batista | F | 45 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | — | 1 | — |
| Abel Hernández | F | 14 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 4 | 1% | — | — | — |
| D. Laxalt | D | 77 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 16 | 10% | 4 | — | — |
| Gastón Togni | F | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Platense vs Penarol?
The final score was Platense 1–1 Penarol.
What did the model predict before Platense vs Penarol?
The model assigned 55% probability to a Platense win, 26% to a draw, and 18% to an Penarol win.