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Poland - Romania

UEFA Nations League October 02, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Poland
#1 · 0 pts
vs
Romania
#3 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
67.41%
Win
Poland
14.97%
Draw
17.62%
Win
Romania
3.17
Expected xG
1.55
Most likely outcome
Poland
67.41%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 3–1 (7.46%)
1X2 Result
1 67%
X 15%
2 18%
Double Chance
1X 82%
X2 33%
12 85%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 85%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Poland a 67% win probability, against 14% for a draw and 17% for Romania. Expected goals are 3.2 for Poland and 1.6 for Romania (total 4.7), with a 94% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 3–1 at 7.46% probability.

Season Stats

Poland
1W 1D 4L
Romania
6W 0D 0L
Averages per game
1.5
Goals
3.0
2.7
Conceded
0.5
4.3
Shots OT
6.0
3.7
Corners
5.5
40%
Poss.
53%
Percentages
83%
O 1.5
100%
83%
O 2.5
100%
83%
BTTS
50%
0%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ Based on the last 6 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
34%
O 3.5
67%
BTTS
Poland
0W 1D 2L · at home
Romania
3W 0D 0L · away
1.7
gls/g
2.7
2.7
Conceded
0.3
0%
Win %
100%
33%
Win or Draw
100%
100%
O 1.5
100%
100%
O 2.5
100%
67%
O 3.5
0%
100%
BTTS
33%
0%
Clean Sht
67%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 3
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Poland Romania →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
1 2.8% 4.4% 3.4% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%
2 4.5% 7.0% 5.4% 2.8% 1.1% 0.3%
3 4.7% 7.3% 5.7% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4%
4 3.7% 5.8% 4.5% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3%
5 2.4% 3.7% 2.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%

Recent form

Poland Poland
L Scotland 1–2
L Portugal 5–1
D Croatia 3–3
L Portugal 1–3
L Croatia 1–0
Romania Romania
W Cyprus 4–1
W Kosovo 3–0
W Lithuania 1–2
W Cyprus 0–3
W Lithuania 3–1

Playing profile

Poland Poland
Attack
41
Defence
57
Form
49
Romania Romania
Attack
32
Defence
61
Form
35
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League B, Group 4

# Team G Pts
1 Poland Poland 0 0
2 Bosnia & Herzegovina Bosnia & Herzegovina 0 0
3 Romania Romania 0 0
4 Sweden Sweden 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League B, Group 4

Top 2 advance to the next round

Poland Romania
Current #1 #3
→ Poland #1 #3
→ Draw #1 #2
→ Romania #2 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Poland vs Romania?
The model gives Poland a 67% win probability, 14% for a draw, and 17% for an Romania win.
How many goals are expected in Poland vs Romania?
Expected goals: Poland 3.2, Romania 1.6 (total 4.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 94%.
What is the most likely score in Poland vs Romania?
3–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 7.46%.